基于人水相互作用机理的洞庭湖区血吸虫病感染风险研究
|
摘要
目的定量评价洞庭湖区血吸虫病感染风险。方法收集洞庭湖区血吸虫病防治工作最新统计资料。采用系统动力学方法和GIS空间技术,以人水相互作用机理为主线,计算湖区血吸虫病综合感染风险程度。结果疫水扩散和涉水活动与区域血吸虫病疫情相关,且经济社会因素在人水相互作用机理中发挥着越来越重要的作用;在空间分析中,人类行为和疫水扩散两类风险在综合风险评价中所占权重分别为0.59和0.41,湖区有15个地区综合感染风险位于60%~80%的峰值区内。结论洞庭湖区血吸虫病综合感染风险程度存在峰值区,这些区域是血防工作的重点地区,应加强以社会措施为主导的防治工作。
Objective To quantitatively evaluate the risk of schistosomiasis infection in Dongting Lake Area.Methods Latest data of schistosomiasis control work in Dongting Lake Area were collected. Based on Interaction between people and infected water,the comprehensive infected risk was calculated by SD and GIS. Results Both Infected water diffusion and Wading activities were significantly correlated with Schistosomiasis infection. The economic and social factors factors played a more important role than the hydrologic condition. The spatial analysis showed that weight of two different risk were 0. 59 and 0. 41 respectively. The comprehensive infected risks of 15 regions in Dongting Lake Area were between60% and 80%. Conclusions When the comprehensive infected risks were calculated,peak areas were divided in Dongting Lake Area. Social-dominated control works should be strengthened in these key areas.
Objective To quantitatively evaluate the risk of schistosomiasis infection in Dongting Lake Area.Methods Latest data of schistosomiasis control work in Dongting Lake Area were collected. Based on Interaction between people and infected water,the comprehensive infected risk was calculated by SD and GIS. Results Both Infected water diffusion and Wading activities were significantly correlated with Schistosomiasis infection. The economic and social factors factors played a more important role than the hydrologic condition. The spatial analysis showed that weight of two different risk were 0. 59 and 0. 41 respectively. The comprehensive infected risks of 15 regions in Dongting Lake Area were between60% and 80%. Conclusions When the comprehensive infected risks were calculated,peak areas were divided in Dongting Lake Area. Social-dominated control works should be strengthened in these key areas.
引文
[1]鲍建国,强广翔,邓玉军,等.四种血吸虫病检测方法在现场查病中的对比观察[J].热带病与寄生虫学,2006,4(1):33-34.
[2]韩阳清,胡本骄,周应彩,等.湖南省血吸虫病疫情回顾性调查[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2014,26(5):491-503.
[3]李静芝,朱翔,李景保.基于系统动力学的湖南省水资源供需系统模拟研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(1):46-52.
[4]胡茂琼,周红霞,涂祖武,等.湖北省血吸虫病的时空格局及气象因素研究[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2015,19(11):1101-1104.
[5]张标,周云,曾光兴.GPS和GIS在基层血吸虫病防治工作中的应用[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2006,18(5):384-385.
[6]陈艳艳,蔡顺祥,刘建兵.湖沼型血吸虫病流行区气候因素与钉螺分布的空间回归分析[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2015,19(3):277-280.
[7]Ager A.Perception of risk for malaria and schistosomiasis in rural Malawi[J].Trop Med Parasitol,1992,43(4):234-238.
[8]el Katsha S,Watts S.Schistosomiasis in two Nile delta villages:an anthropological perspective[J].Trop Med lnt Health,1997,2(9):846-854.
[9]周爱芳,贺清云,朱翔,等.洞庭湖区居民接触疫水行为方式与社会经济因素的关系探讨[J].国际医学寄生虫病杂志,2014,41(5):279-282,290.
[10]刘恩勇,李万有.浅析湖区血吸虫病控制与农业的发展[J].中国兽医寄生虫病,2002,10(4):37-40.
[11]朱绪元,刘星媛,吴朝俣,等.2009-2014年潜江市血吸虫病防控效果分析[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2016,20(1):67-69,73.
[12]Gray DJ,Mc Manus DP,Li Y,et al.Schistosomiasis elimination:lessons from the past guide the future[J].Lancet Infect Dis,2010,10(10):733-736.
[13]Ximenes RA,Southgate B,Smith PG,et al.Social environment behavior,and schistosomiasis in an urban population in the northeast of Brazil[J].Rev Panam Salud Publica,2001,9(1):13-22.
[14]陈明,袁鸿昌,姜庆五.湖滩型日本血吸虫病流行区居民接触疫水的定量研究[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,1990,2(1):28-33.
[15]A Ceylan,I Ekizoglu.Assesment of bathymetric maps via GIS for water in reservoir[J].Boletim de Ciências Geodésicas,2014,20(1):142-158.
[16]朱翔,朱云,翟云波,等.长株潭地区水环境生态安全评价[J].湖南大学学报(自然科学版),2011,38(1):72-77.
[17]朱政,贺清云.湖南省洞庭湖区堤坝涵闸对血吸虫感染风险的空间影响分析[J].中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志,2015,33(5):328-337.
[18]郑浩,李石柱,曹淳力,等.2012年基于感染性水体哨鼠监测的血吸虫病风险区域预警[J].中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志,2013,31(6):428-432.
[19]郝阳,王立英,周晓农,等.江西省鄱阳湖区血吸虫病传播风险及其原因分析[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2009,21(5):345-349,451.
[20]王岩,刘加珍,陈永金.传播指数模型用于山东省血吸虫病流行风险预测[J].环境卫生学杂志,2015,5(3):215-218,225.
[2]韩阳清,胡本骄,周应彩,等.湖南省血吸虫病疫情回顾性调查[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2014,26(5):491-503.
[3]李静芝,朱翔,李景保.基于系统动力学的湖南省水资源供需系统模拟研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2013,22(1):46-52.
[4]胡茂琼,周红霞,涂祖武,等.湖北省血吸虫病的时空格局及气象因素研究[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2015,19(11):1101-1104.
[5]张标,周云,曾光兴.GPS和GIS在基层血吸虫病防治工作中的应用[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2006,18(5):384-385.
[6]陈艳艳,蔡顺祥,刘建兵.湖沼型血吸虫病流行区气候因素与钉螺分布的空间回归分析[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2015,19(3):277-280.
[7]Ager A.Perception of risk for malaria and schistosomiasis in rural Malawi[J].Trop Med Parasitol,1992,43(4):234-238.
[8]el Katsha S,Watts S.Schistosomiasis in two Nile delta villages:an anthropological perspective[J].Trop Med lnt Health,1997,2(9):846-854.
[9]周爱芳,贺清云,朱翔,等.洞庭湖区居民接触疫水行为方式与社会经济因素的关系探讨[J].国际医学寄生虫病杂志,2014,41(5):279-282,290.
[10]刘恩勇,李万有.浅析湖区血吸虫病控制与农业的发展[J].中国兽医寄生虫病,2002,10(4):37-40.
[11]朱绪元,刘星媛,吴朝俣,等.2009-2014年潜江市血吸虫病防控效果分析[J].中华疾病控制杂志,2016,20(1):67-69,73.
[12]Gray DJ,Mc Manus DP,Li Y,et al.Schistosomiasis elimination:lessons from the past guide the future[J].Lancet Infect Dis,2010,10(10):733-736.
[13]Ximenes RA,Southgate B,Smith PG,et al.Social environment behavior,and schistosomiasis in an urban population in the northeast of Brazil[J].Rev Panam Salud Publica,2001,9(1):13-22.
[14]陈明,袁鸿昌,姜庆五.湖滩型日本血吸虫病流行区居民接触疫水的定量研究[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,1990,2(1):28-33.
[15]A Ceylan,I Ekizoglu.Assesment of bathymetric maps via GIS for water in reservoir[J].Boletim de Ciências Geodésicas,2014,20(1):142-158.
[16]朱翔,朱云,翟云波,等.长株潭地区水环境生态安全评价[J].湖南大学学报(自然科学版),2011,38(1):72-77.
[17]朱政,贺清云.湖南省洞庭湖区堤坝涵闸对血吸虫感染风险的空间影响分析[J].中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志,2015,33(5):328-337.
[18]郑浩,李石柱,曹淳力,等.2012年基于感染性水体哨鼠监测的血吸虫病风险区域预警[J].中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志,2013,31(6):428-432.
[19]郝阳,王立英,周晓农,等.江西省鄱阳湖区血吸虫病传播风险及其原因分析[J].中国血吸虫病防治杂志,2009,21(5):345-349,451.
[20]王岩,刘加珍,陈永金.传播指数模型用于山东省血吸虫病流行风险预测[J].环境卫生学杂志,2015,5(3):215-218,225.