1995～2015年中国风蚀扬尘TSP、PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)排放清单及未来趋势预测
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摘要
通过收集1995～2015年中国大陆31个省级行政区风速、降水量和气温地面站数据,结合各省、市自治区的土地利用分布及每种土地利用类型对应的土质类型,基于环保部推荐的起尘模型建立了1995～2015年中国风蚀扬尘颗粒物(TSP、PM_(10)和PM_(2.5))排放清单.研究表明,在本研究的时间序列中,中国土壤风蚀扬尘颗粒物排放量呈现波动的趋势,2015年全国风蚀扬尘颗粒物TSP、PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)的年排放量分别约为2.27×10~7、6.77×10~6和1.17×10~6t.排放量的空间分布总体上呈现"北强南弱",并且以"黑河-腾冲"一线为界呈现"西强东弱"的排放格局,排放强度最大的地区出现在内蒙古西部和新疆大部.基于IPCC对于未来气候变化的预测情景,估计了未来风蚀扬尘颗粒物的排放变化趋势,在降水和气温共同作用下,不考虑风速变化,2100年的排放量相对2005年的变化幅度在-8.5%～7.7%之间,降水量增多会抑制风蚀扬尘颗粒物排放,温度升高则会使得地表更容易产生风蚀扬尘颗粒物.
This study aimed to develop an integrated inventory of the atmospheric emissions of total suspended particulate(TSP),inhalable particles(PM_(10))and fine particles(PM_(2.5))from wind erosion at fine resolution in China during the period 1995～2015 and project the trend of emissions from now until 2100.A bottom-up method was utilized to compile this comprehensive inventory with updated historical meteorological data(e.g.,wind speed,precipitation and temperature),land use categories and soil contents at provincial level.The national total emissions of TSP,PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) from wind erosion were estimated as 2.27×10~7t,6.77×10~6t and 1.17×10~6t,respectively.Higher emissions were observed in Northern or Eastern China compared with Southern and Western China.Highest emission intensity was found in Western Inner Mongolia and most of Xinjiang Province.Furthermore,based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)predictions of future climate change,emission trends of TSP,PM_(10) and PM_(2.5)from wind-erosion process in the future was estimated.Under the combined effects of precipitation and temperature changes,wind erosion dust emissions in 2100 is between-8.5%～7.7%compared to 2005.The increase of precipitation will inhibit the emissions of wind-erosion dust while the rapid increase of ambient temperature can make the land surface more prone to produce particles.
This study aimed to develop an integrated inventory of the atmospheric emissions of total suspended particulate(TSP),inhalable particles(PM_(10))and fine particles(PM_(2.5))from wind erosion at fine resolution in China during the period 1995～2015 and project the trend of emissions from now until 2100.A bottom-up method was utilized to compile this comprehensive inventory with updated historical meteorological data(e.g.,wind speed,precipitation and temperature),land use categories and soil contents at provincial level.The national total emissions of TSP,PM_(10) and PM_(2.5) from wind erosion were estimated as 2.27×10~7t,6.77×10~6t and 1.17×10~6t,respectively.Higher emissions were observed in Northern or Eastern China compared with Southern and Western China.Highest emission intensity was found in Western Inner Mongolia and most of Xinjiang Province.Furthermore,based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)predictions of future climate change,emission trends of TSP,PM_(10) and PM_(2.5)from wind-erosion process in the future was estimated.Under the combined effects of precipitation and temperature changes,wind erosion dust emissions in 2100 is between-8.5%～7.7%compared to 2005.The increase of precipitation will inhibit the emissions of wind-erosion dust while the rapid increase of ambient temperature can make the land surface more prone to produce particles.
引文
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[29]马宁,王乃昂,朱金峰,等.巴丹吉林沙漠周边地区近50a来气候变化特征[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(6):1541-1547.Ma N,Wang N,Zhu J,et al.Climate change around the badain jaran desert in recent 50years[J].Journal of desert research,2011,31(6):1541-1547.
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[31]政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC).气候变化2014:综合报告.政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告[R/OL].瑞士日内瓦:2014.http://www.ipcc.ch/home_languages_main_chinese.shtml.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).Climate Change 2014:Synthesis Report[R/OL].Geneva,Switzerland:2014.http://www.ipcc.ch/home_languages_main_chinese.shtml.
[2]Nriagu J O.Global inventory of natural and anthropogenic emissions of trace metals to the atmosphere[J].Nature,1979,279(279):409-411.
[3]Nriagu J O.A global assessment of natural sources of atmospheric trace metals[J].Nature,1989,338(6210):47-49.
[4]池彦琪,谢绍东.基于蓄积量和产量的中国天然源VOC排放清单及时空分布[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2012,48(3):475-482.Chi Y,Xie S.Spatiotemporal Inventory of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound Emissions in China Based on Vegetation Volume and Production[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2012,48(3):475-482.
[5]Yamasoe M A,Artaxo P,Miguel A H,et al.Chemical composition of aerosol particles from direct emissions of vegetation fires in the Amazon Basin:Water-soluble species and trace elements[J].Atmospheric Environment,2000,34(10):1641-1653.
[6]Blanchard D C.The Production,Distribution,and Bacterial Enrichment of the Sea-Salt Aerosol[M].Springer Netherlands,1983.
[7]Liu S,Hua S,Wang K,et al.Spatial-temporal variation characteristics of air pollution in Henan of China:Localized emission inventory,WRF/Chem simulations and potential source contribution analysis[J].Science of The Total Environment,2018,624:396-406.
[8]刘奥博,吴其重,陈雅婷,等.北京市平原区裸露地风蚀扬尘排放量[J].中国环境科学,2018,38(2):471-477.Liu A,Wu Q,Chen Y,et al.Estimation of dust emissions from bare soil erosion over Beijing plain area[J].China Environmental Science,2018,38(2):471-477.
[9]宣捷.中国北方地面起尘总量分布[J].环境科学学报,2000,20(4):426-430.Xuan J.Dust emission inventory from ground surfaces in Northern China[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2000,20(4):426-430.
[10]成天涛,吕达仁,徐永福.浑善达克沙地起沙率和起沙量的估计[J].高原气象,2006,25(2):236-241.Cheng T,Lv D,Xu Y,Emistation on dust emission from ground surface in hunshandake sandland[J].Plateau Meteorology,2006,25(2):236-241.
[11]Xuan J.Dust emission factors for environment of Northern China[J].Atmospheric Environment,1999,33(11):1767-1776.
[12]Xuan J,Liu G L,Du K.Dust emission inventory in Northern China.[J].Atmospheric Environment,2000,34(26):4565-4570.
[13]Song H,Zhang K,Piao S,et al.Spatial and temporal variations of spring dust emissions in northern China over the last 30years[J].Atmospheric Environment,2016,126(3):117-127.
[14]Jiang L,Xiao Y,Zheng H,et al.Spatio-temporal variation of wind erosion in Inner Mongolia of China between 2001 and 2010[J].Chinese Geographical Science,2016,26(2):155-164.
[15]徐媛倩,姜楠,燕启社,等.郑州市裸露地面风蚀扬尘排放清单研究[J].环境污染与防治,2016,38(4):22-27.Xu Y,Jiang N,Yan Q,et al.Research on emission inventory of bareness wind erosion dust in Zhengzhou[J].Environmental Pollution&Control,2016,38(4):22-27.
[16]王社扣,王体健,石睿,等.南京市扬尘源排放清单估计[C]//沈阳:中国气象学会,2012.
[17]U.S.EPA.Guideline for Development of Control Strategies in Areas with Fugitive Dust Problems[Z].1977.EPA-405/2-77-029.
[18]环境保护部.扬尘源颗粒物排放清单编制技术指南(试行)[M/OL].2014.http://www.zhb.gov.cn/gkml/hbb/bgg/201501/t20150107_293955.htm.
[19]Thornthwaite C W.An Approach toward a Rational Classification of Climate[J].Geographical Review,1948,38(1):55-94.
[20]Gillette D A,Passi R.Modeling dust emission caused by wind erosion[J].Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres,1988,93(D11):14233-14242.
[21]国土资源部.国土资源统计年鉴[M].北京:国土资源部,2009.Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China,Statistical Yearbook of Land and Resources[M].Beijing:Ministry of Natural Resources of the People’s Republic of China,2009.
[22]国家林业局.中国林业统计年鉴[M].北京:中国林业出版社,2015.National Forestry Administration.Forestry Statistical Yearbook of China[M].Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House,2015.
[23]中国科学院南京土壤研究所CERN土壤分中心.中国土壤数据库[EB/OL](2016)[2018-08-07].http://vdb3.soil.csdb.cn/.CERN,the Institute of Soil Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences.China soil database[EB/OL](2016)[2018-08-07].http://vdb3.soil.csdb.cn/.
[24]中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所.中国湿地科学数据库[EB/OL](2010)[2018-08-07].http://www.marsh.csdb.cn/.The Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences.China wetland scientific database[EB/OL](2010)[2018-08-07].http://www.marsh.csdb.cn/.
[25]国家气象信息中心.中国地面累年值日值数据集(1981~2010年)[EB/OL](2012)[2018-08-07].http://data.cma.cn.National Meteorological Information Center.Dataset of annual surface observation values in individual years(1981-2010)in China[EB/OL](2012)[2018-08-07].http://data.cma.cn.
[26]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.National Statistical Bureau of the People's Republic of China.China Statistical Yearbook[M].Beijing:China Statistical Publishing House,2016.
[27]潘霞,高永,刘博,等.近36年呼和浩特地区风速变化特征分析[J].内蒙古农业大学学报(自然科学版),2017,38(4):15-21.Pan X,Gao Y,Liu B,et al.Analysis of wind speed variation in hohhot over the past 36years[J].Journal of Inner Mongolia Agricultural University(Natural Science Edition),2017,38(4):15-21.
[28]中国科学院资源环境科学数据中心.2015年中国土地利用现状遥感监测数据[EB/OL](2016)[2018-08-07].http://www.resdc.cn.
[29]马宁,王乃昂,朱金峰,等.巴丹吉林沙漠周边地区近50a来气候变化特征[J].中国沙漠,2011,31(6):1541-1547.Ma N,Wang N,Zhu J,et al.Climate change around the badain jaran desert in recent 50years[J].Journal of desert research,2011,31(6):1541-1547.
[30]陆大道,王铮,封志明,等.关于“胡焕庸线能否突破”的学术争鸣[J].地理研究,2016,35(5):805-824.Lu D,Wang Z,Feng Z,et al.Academic debates on Hu Huanyong population line[J].Geographical Research,2016,35(5):805-824.
[31]政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC).气候变化2014:综合报告.政府间气候变化专门委员会第五次评估报告[R/OL].瑞士日内瓦:2014.http://www.ipcc.ch/home_languages_main_chinese.shtml.The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC).Climate Change 2014:Synthesis Report[R/OL].Geneva,Switzerland:2014.http://www.ipcc.ch/home_languages_main_chinese.shtml.