我国改革的周期性变化规律及新时代价值
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摘要
本文通过回顾中国改革40年历程发现,改革呈现出明显的周期性变化规律,出现了一个中周期和三个短周期。改革周期性变化规律形成的根本原因是,改革作为生产关系的变革和调整,必须遵循生产关系适应生产力发展变化而变化的运动规律,再加之我国改革采取了渐进式改革的方式,这就使生产关系的变化具有了阶段性特征,并引起了生产力发展的阶段性变化,形成了改革周期与经济周期的高度吻合。改革的周期性变化规律对于新时代全面深化改革具有重要的意义:经济面临下行压力,恰是改革最佳窗口期;改革进入新周期,才能孕育经济运行新周期;激发人民的改革激情与活力,才能推动改革周期性运动;加强顶层设计,才能推动改革全面深化。
By reviewing the 40-year history of China's reform,this paper finds that the reform shows an obvious cyclical change law,and there is a medium cycle and three short cycles.The fundamental reason for the reform of the cyclical change law is that as the adjustment of the production relationship,the reform must follow the law of change in the production relations to adapt to the changes in the development of productive forces.In addition,China's reform adopts a gradual reform approach,which makes the changes of production relationship have phased features,and it causes the phased change of productivity development,which forms a high degree of consistency between the reform cycle and the economic cycle.The cyclical change law of reform is of great significance for comprehensively deepening reform in the new era:the downward pressure on the economy is precisely the best window for reform;the reform enters the new cycle,which can breed a new cycle of economic operation;and stimulate the people's reform passion and vitality.In order to promote the reform of the cyclical movement;strengthen the top-level design,in order to promote the comprehensive deepening of reform.
By reviewing the 40-year history of China's reform,this paper finds that the reform shows an obvious cyclical change law,and there is a medium cycle and three short cycles.The fundamental reason for the reform of the cyclical change law is that as the adjustment of the production relationship,the reform must follow the law of change in the production relations to adapt to the changes in the development of productive forces.In addition,China's reform adopts a gradual reform approach,which makes the changes of production relationship have phased features,and it causes the phased change of productivity development,which forms a high degree of consistency between the reform cycle and the economic cycle.The cyclical change law of reform is of great significance for comprehensively deepening reform in the new era:the downward pressure on the economy is precisely the best window for reform;the reform enters the new cycle,which can breed a new cycle of economic operation;and stimulate the people's reform passion and vitality.In order to promote the reform of the cyclical movement;strengthen the top-level design,in order to promote the comprehensive deepening of reform.
引文
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(1)1860年法国经济学家朱格拉就提出了9年~10年的经济周期。经济学家熊彼特1936年提出经济周期分为长周期、中周期和短周期,每一个长周期包括6个中周期,每一个中周期包括3个短周期。短周期约为40个月,中周期约为9年~10年,长周期为48年~60年。
[2]习近平.决胜全面建成小康社会夺取新时代中国特色社会主义伟大胜利---在中国共产党第十九次全国代表大会上的报告[M].北京:人民出版社,2017.
[3]习近平主持政治局集体学习:以更大的政治勇气和智慧深化改革[EB/OL].http://cpc.people.com.cn/n/2013/0102/c64094-20070702.html,2018-10-10.
[4]毛泽东.毛泽东选集[M].北京:人民出版社,1991.
[5]毛泽东.毛泽东文集[M].北京:人民出版社,1999.
[6]邓小平.邓小平文选[M].北京:人民出版社,1994.
[7]习近平:发展是第一要务,人才是第一资源,创新是第一动力[EB/OL].http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2018lh/2018-03/07/c_1122502719.htm,2018-03-07.
[8]马克思,恩格斯.马克思恩格斯选集[M].北京:人民出版社,2012.
[9]习近平.在纪念毛泽东同志诞辰120周年座谈会上的讲话[EB/OL].http://www.gov.cn/ldhd/2013-12/26/content_2554937.htm,2018-10-10.
[10]学习贯彻习近平总书记在中央全面深化改革领导小组第二次会议重要讲话[EB/OL].http://politics.people.com.cn/n/2014/0306/c70731-24546091.html,2018-10-10.
[11]党的群众路线教育实践活动工作会议召开习近平发表重要讲话[EB/OL].http://cpc.people.com.cn/n/2013/0619/c64094-21888765.html,2018-10-10.
(1)1860年法国经济学家朱格拉就提出了9年~10年的经济周期。经济学家熊彼特1936年提出经济周期分为长周期、中周期和短周期,每一个长周期包括6个中周期,每一个中周期包括3个短周期。短周期约为40个月,中周期约为9年~10年,长周期为48年~60年。