变化环境下桂林市降雨趋势及周期特征分析
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摘要
为探讨在变化环境下降雨的变化特征,基于广西桂林市1951~2014年降雨序列,首先采用Mann-kendall突变检验法确定降雨序列的突变年,并以突变年为分界点分离出变化环境下的降雨序列;然后采用线性趋势、累积距平和Mann-kendall等分析变化环境下的降雨序列趋势特征,最后通过Morlet小波分析方法分析了变化环境下降雨序列的周期特征。结果表明,降雨序列在1970年发生突变,1970~2014年为变化环境下的降雨序列;变化环境下降雨总体呈现下降的趋势,下降幅度为3.968 mm/a,但下降趋势不显著;受环境变化的影响,降雨序列存在5~8 a、18~29 a的多时间尺度相互嵌套周期特征,第一主周期为28 a,第二主周期为7 a。
In order to study rainfall variation under environment change,the precipitation data of Guilin city in Guangxi were analyzed. Firstly,Mann-kendall was applied to test mutation of rainfall sequence,and the precipitation sequence after environment change was separated. Then,linear trend,cumulative anomaly and mann-kendall were used to analyze the trend of rainfall sequence.Finally,periodic characteristics of rainfall sequence were analyzed by using Morlet wavelet method.Results show that rainfall sequence mutated in 1970,and rainfall sequence from 1970 to 2014 is regarded as the rainfall sequence under environment change. Overall,the rainfall shows a downward trend,but the trend is not significant,and the magnitude of the decline is 3. 968 mm/a. Under the influence of environment change,there were multiple time scales of 5 ~ 8 a and 18 ~ 29 a in the rainfall sequence,its main period is 28 a,and its hypo-period is 7 a.
In order to study rainfall variation under environment change,the precipitation data of Guilin city in Guangxi were analyzed. Firstly,Mann-kendall was applied to test mutation of rainfall sequence,and the precipitation sequence after environment change was separated. Then,linear trend,cumulative anomaly and mann-kendall were used to analyze the trend of rainfall sequence.Finally,periodic characteristics of rainfall sequence were analyzed by using Morlet wavelet method.Results show that rainfall sequence mutated in 1970,and rainfall sequence from 1970 to 2014 is regarded as the rainfall sequence under environment change. Overall,the rainfall shows a downward trend,but the trend is not significant,and the magnitude of the decline is 3. 968 mm/a. Under the influence of environment change,there were multiple time scales of 5 ~ 8 a and 18 ~ 29 a in the rainfall sequence,its main period is 28 a,and its hypo-period is 7 a.
引文
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[3]陈立华,王焰,易凯,等.钦州市降雨及入海河流径流演变规律与趋势分析[J].水文,2016,36(6):89-96.
[4]张平,夏军,邹磊,等.近50年来淮河蚌埠以上流域降水时空变化特征分析[J].中国农村水利水电,2017(3):1-8.
[5]陈鹏,何军,徐小峰,等.气候变化背景下降雨序列的变异分析[J].水电能源科学,2015,33(12):6-8.
[6]李环环,卢玉东,孙东永,等.腰坝绿洲降雨蒸发序列周期演变规律及趋势预测[J].水电能源科学,2017,35(1):1-5.
[7]JELENA L,BRANISl AV B,DRAGAN B,et al.Spatial pattern of recent rainfall trends in Serbia(1961-2009)[J].Regional Environmental Change,2014,14(5):1789-1799.
[8]HIROYUKI I.Increasing trends in heavy rain during the warm season in eastern Japan and its relation to moisture variation and topographic convergence[J].Int J Climatol,2015,35(8):2154-2163.
[9]KULKAMI A,STROCH H V.Monte Carlo experiments on the effect of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test of trend[J].Meteorol,1997,4(2):82-85.
[10]薛建民,苏律文,杨侃,等.洛阳市降水量时空变化特征分析[J].水电能源科学,2016,34(11):13-16.
[11]谢平,陈广才,雷红富,等.水文变异诊断系统[J].水力发电学报,2010,29(1):85-91.
[12]石教智,陈晓宏,吴甜.东江流域降雨径流变化趋势及其原因分析[J].水电能源科学,2005,23(5):8-10.
[13]王文圣,丁晶.水文小波分析[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2005.