基于SPEI的陕北黄土丘陵区干旱特征及影响因素分析
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摘要
为探讨陕北黄土丘陵区干旱特征及其影响因素,借助绥德2000-2014年逐日的气象数据,基于Hargreaves、Thornthwaite和Penman-Monteith蒸散模型及同一套降水资料计算,获得不同时间尺度(月、半年和年)3种标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),对比分析上述3种SPEI的差异并选取适宜于陕北黄土丘陵区的SPEI,而后采用SPEI分析干旱特征,并利用通径法分析气象因子对SPEI敏感性。结果表明:1)基于Penman-Monteith蒸散模型的SPEI(SPEI-PM)能够准确反映陕北黄土丘陵区干旱事件,与SPEI-PM相比,基于Hargreaves和Thornthwaite的SPEI值偏低,计算误差为0.26～0.38;2)干旱变化呈现减弱趋势,短时间尺度上(1和6个月)SPEI-PM值变化频繁,长时间尺度上(12、18和24个月)SPEI-PM值变化幅度小且变化周期长;3)在月、半年和年尺度上对SPEI-PM影响程度最大的气象因素分别为气温和相对湿度。
In order to explore the drought characteristics and influencing factors in loess hilly region of Northern Shaanxi Province,three types of standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI-HG,SPEI-TW,SPEI-PM)in different time scales(month,half year and year)were calculated using precipitation and three sets of potential evapotranspiration(ET)data based on daily climatic data collected from meteorological station of Suide in Shaanxi during 2000 to 2014.The ET was calculated by Hargreaves,Thornthwaite and Penman-Monteith formulae,respectively.Differences between the three types of SPEI were compared and an appropriate SPEI was selected.The drought characteristics were analyzed by the selected SPEI,and the sensitivity of meteorological factors to the selected SPEI was analyzed by path analysis.The results showed that 1)SPEI-PM could accurately describe drought events in loess hilly region of Northern Shaanxi Province.Compared with SPEI-PM,the SPEI-HG and SPEI-TW underestimate drought and the mean absolute errors were 0.26～0.38.2)Drought change showed a decreasing trend,SPEI-PM fluctuation was frequent in short time scale,and stable in long time scale.3)Meteorological factors that mainly affected SPEI-PM on the scale of monthly,half-year and year were the temperature,temperature and relative humidity,respectively.
In order to explore the drought characteristics and influencing factors in loess hilly region of Northern Shaanxi Province,three types of standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI-HG,SPEI-TW,SPEI-PM)in different time scales(month,half year and year)were calculated using precipitation and three sets of potential evapotranspiration(ET)data based on daily climatic data collected from meteorological station of Suide in Shaanxi during 2000 to 2014.The ET was calculated by Hargreaves,Thornthwaite and Penman-Monteith formulae,respectively.Differences between the three types of SPEI were compared and an appropriate SPEI was selected.The drought characteristics were analyzed by the selected SPEI,and the sensitivity of meteorological factors to the selected SPEI was analyzed by path analysis.The results showed that 1)SPEI-PM could accurately describe drought events in loess hilly region of Northern Shaanxi Province.Compared with SPEI-PM,the SPEI-HG and SPEI-TW underestimate drought and the mean absolute errors were 0.26～0.38.2)Drought change showed a decreasing trend,SPEI-PM fluctuation was frequent in short time scale,and stable in long time scale.3)Meteorological factors that mainly affected SPEI-PM on the scale of monthly,half-year and year were the temperature,temperature and relative humidity,respectively.
引文
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[18]崔党群,林德光.通径分析的矩阵算法[J].生物数学学报,1994(1):71-76.
[19]高亮之.农业模型学基础[M].香港:天马图书有限公司,2004:215-241.
[20] SENTELHAS P C,GILLESPIE T J,SANTOS E A.Leaf wetness duration measurement:comparison of cylindrical and flat plate sensors under different field conditons[J].International Journal of Biometeorology,2007,51(4):265-273.
[21] MICHAEL H,MARK S,WILHITE D A.Monitoring drought using the standardized precipitation index[M].London:Drought A Global Assessment,2000:168-180.
[22] THOMAS B M,NOLAN J D,JOHN K.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C].Eight Conference on Apllied Climatology,Anahaim,California,1993:179-184.
[23]刘珂,姜大膀.基于两种潜在蒸散发算法的SPEI对中国干湿变化的分析[J].大气科学,2015,39(1):23-36.
[2] SENEVIRATNE S I.Climate science:historical drought trends revisited[J].Nature,2012,491(7424):338-9.
[3]邱海军,曹明明,郝俊卿,等.1950-2010年中国干旱灾情频率-规模关系分析[J].地理科学,2013,33(5):576-580.QIU H J,CAO M M,HAO J Q,et al.Relationship between frequency and magnitude of drought damage in China in 1950-2010[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(5):576-580.(in Chinese)
[4]郭建平.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(1):1-11.
[5]刘引鸽,缪启龙.西北地区农业旱灾与预测研究[J].干旱区地理,2004,27(4):564-569.
[6]肖军,赵景波.陕西省54a来农业干旱灾害特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2006,20(5):201-204.
[7]于玲玲,成敏,廖允成,等.马尔科夫链法在分析旱灾规律中的应用[J].西北农业学报,2010,19(5):52-56.YU L L,CHENG M,LIAO Y C,et al.Application of markovchain in drought disaster[J].Acta Agriculturae Boreali-Occidentalis Sinica,2010,19(5):52-56.(in Chinese)
[8]乔丽,江志红,李青.Palmer干旱指数与降水距平在陕西对比应用[J].陕西气象,2008(2):9-12.
[9] RICHARD R,HEIM J.A review of twentieth-century drought indices used in the united states[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2002,83(8):1149-1165.
[10]谭学志,粟晓玲,邵东国.基于SPI的陕西关中地区气象干旱时空特征分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2011,29(2):224-229.TAN X Z,SU X L,SHAO D G.Analysis of spatial and temporal characteristics of meteorological drought in guanzhong region of Shaanxi Province[J].Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas,2011,29(2):224-229.(in Chinese)
[11] VICENTE-SERRANO S M,BEGUERIA S,LOPEZ-MORENO J I.A multiscalar drought index sensitive to global warming:the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J].Journal of Climate,2010,23(7):1696-1718.
[12]周丹,张勃,任培贵,等.基于标准化降水蒸散指数的陕西省近50a干旱特征分析[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(4):677-688.ZHOU D,ZHANG B,REN P G,et al.Analysis of drought characteristics of Shaanxi Province in recent 50years based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2014,29(4):677-688.(in Chinese)
[13]贺音,张聪娥,张黎.基于SPEI的陕西近40年干旱时空特性分析[J].陕西气象,2014(5):26-32.
[14] SERGIO M V,BEGUERIA S,JORGE L,et al.Performance of drought indices for ecological,agricultural,and hydrological applications[J].Earth Interactions,2012,16(10):1-27.
[15] BEGUERIA S,VICENTE-SERRANO S M,FERGUS R,et al.Standardizedprecipitationevapotranspirationindex(SPEI)revisited:parameter fitting,evapotranspiration models,tools,datasets and drought monitoring[J].International Journal of Climatology,2014,34(10):3001-3023.
[16]沈瑱,曾燕,肖卉,等.江苏省日照时数的气候特征分析[J].气象科学,2007,27(4):425-429.
[17]高志永,汪有科,周玉红,等.微观时间尺度气象因子影响露水量的通径分析[J].西北林学院学报,2014,29(5):12-18,41.GAO Z Y,WANG Y K,ZHOU Y H,et al.Path analysis on sensitivity of meteorological factors to dew amount in microscale[J].Journal of Northwest Forestry University,2014,29(5):12-18,41.(in Chinese)
[18]崔党群,林德光.通径分析的矩阵算法[J].生物数学学报,1994(1):71-76.
[19]高亮之.农业模型学基础[M].香港:天马图书有限公司,2004:215-241.
[20] SENTELHAS P C,GILLESPIE T J,SANTOS E A.Leaf wetness duration measurement:comparison of cylindrical and flat plate sensors under different field conditons[J].International Journal of Biometeorology,2007,51(4):265-273.
[21] MICHAEL H,MARK S,WILHITE D A.Monitoring drought using the standardized precipitation index[M].London:Drought A Global Assessment,2000:168-180.
[22] THOMAS B M,NOLAN J D,JOHN K.The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales[C].Eight Conference on Apllied Climatology,Anahaim,California,1993:179-184.
[23]刘珂,姜大膀.基于两种潜在蒸散发算法的SPEI对中国干湿变化的分析[J].大气科学,2015,39(1):23-36.