关于仿真模型验证指标体系的探讨
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摘要
指标体系是完成仿真模型验证的必要手段。为了澄清指标体系在模型验证中的应用误区,在分析指标关联、可信度计算和模型缺陷回溯问题的基础上,揭示了串联、并联、迭代、混合子模型局部可信度与模型整体可信度之间的关联,提出了指标体系的元素、图示和建立方法,说明了模型可信度计算和缺陷回溯方法,并给出了一个模型验证实例,详细说明了仿真模型验证指标体系的应用过程。
Factor space is a necessary part of accomplishing simulation model validation.In order to clarify the misusing of factor space in model validation,based on the analysis of factor relationship,credibility calculation and model defect tracing,the relationship between partial credibility which series,parallel,iterative or combined sub-model carries and grand credibility is revealed,the elements,graphic description and building method of factor space are proposed,the method of model credibility calculation and defect tracing are explained,and a model validation case study is provided to present an application example of factor space for simulation model validation.
Factor space is a necessary part of accomplishing simulation model validation.In order to clarify the misusing of factor space in model validation,based on the analysis of factor relationship,credibility calculation and model defect tracing,the relationship between partial credibility which series,parallel,iterative or combined sub-model carries and grand credibility is revealed,the elements,graphic description and building method of factor space are proposed,the method of model credibility calculation and defect tracing are explained,and a model validation case study is provided to present an application example of factor space for simulation model validation.
引文
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[2]石岩,马宝华.基于因素空间的多传感器决策融合方法[J].北京理工大学学报,2000,20(1):85-89.SHI Y,MA B H.Multitarget decision fusion method based on fuzzy factor spaces[J].Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology,2000,20(1):85-89.
[3]崔铁军,马云东.系统可靠性决策规则发掘方法研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(12):3210-3216.CUI T J,MA Y D.The method research on decision criterion discovery of system reliability[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2015,35(12):3210-3216.
[4]CHANG K H,CHANG Y C,CHUNG H Y.A novel AHPbased benefit evaluation model of military simulation training systems[J].Mathematical Problems in Engineering,2015,2015(3):1-14.
[5]卢志忠,李锋,袁赣南.基于层次分析法的航行模拟器仿真可信度研究[J].计算机仿真,2008,25(3):90-94.LU Z Z,LI F,YUAN G N.Study of simulation credibility of voyage training simulator based on analytic hierarchy process[J].Computer Simulation,2008,25(3):90-94.
[6]冉承新,凌云翔.AHP-Fuzzy在仿真系统可信度综合评价中的应用[J].计算机仿真,2005,22(8):59-61.RAN C X,LING Y X.The AHP-fuzzy method for comprehensive evaluation of simulation system’s credibility[J].Computer Simulation,2005,22(8):59-61.
[7]FANG K,YANG M,ZHANG Z.The MAD network for credibility evaluation of computer simulation[C]∥Proc.of the 13th IEEE Joint International Computer Science and Information Technology Conference,2011:636-642.
[8]NANNAPANENI S,MAHADEVAN S,RACHURI S.Performance evaluation of a manufacturing process under uncertainty using Bayesian networks[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,113:947-959.
[9]NAGALAKSHMI S,KAMARAJ N.On-line evaluation of loadability limit for pool model with TCSC using back propagation neural network[J].International Journal of Electrical Power&Energy Systems,2013,47(6):52-60.
[10]张英俊,马培军,苏小红,等.属性权重不确定条件下的区间直觉模糊多属性决策[J].自动化学报,2012,38(2):220-228.ZHANG Y J,MA P J,SU X H,et.al.Multi-attribute decision making with uncertain attribute weight information in the framework of interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy set[J].Acta Automatica Sinica,2012,38(2):220-228.
[11]MEHTA U,ROMERO V,EKLUND D,et al.The JANNAF simulation credibility guide on verification,uncertainty propagation and quantification,and validation[C]∥Proc.of the 53rd AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting,2015:1-30.
[12]ZHANG Z,FANG K,WU F,et.al.Detection method for credibility defect of simulation based on Sobol’method and orthogonal design[C]∥Proc.of the Asia Simulation Conference,2013.
[13]叶钢,余丹,李重文,等.一种基于Kolmogorov-Smirrnov检验的缺陷定位方法[J].计算机研究与发展,2013,50(4):686-699.YE G,YU D,LI C W,et al.Fault localization based on Kolmogorov-Smirnov testing model[J].Journal of Computer Research and Development,2013,50(4):686-699.
[14]宋立新,赵志文,陈鲲.两总体分布均值相等的U统计量检验法[J].吉林大学学报理学版,2010,48(6):957-960.SONG L X,ZHAO Z W,CHEN K.U-Statistics testing method in testing the equality of tow population means[J].Journal of Jilin University,2010,48(6):957-960.
[15]KLEIJNEN J C.Verification and validation of simulation models[J].European Journal of Operational Research,1995,82(1):145-162.
[16]张津源.基于数据一致性分析的仿真模型验证方法及工具研究[D].哈尔滨:哈尔滨工业大学,2011.ZHANG J Y.Validation methods and assistant tools based on coherence of data[D].Harbin:Harbin Institute of Technology,2011.
[17]李仁安,秦晋栋.基于灰色组合关联度的综合评价方法[J].武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版),2012,34(5):592-595.LI R A,QIN J D.Comprehensive evaluation method based on gray combination incidence degree[J].Journal of Wuhan University of Technology(Information&Management Engineering),2012,34(5):592-595.
[18]HORA J,CAMPOS P.A review of performance criteria to validate simulation models[J].Expert Systems,2015,1(1):1-18.