我国江南夏季极端高温季节内变化特征初探
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摘要
利用1979～2013年逐日最高温度观测资料,通过Butterworth带通滤波和功率谱分析等方法,分析我国江南夏季极端高温季节内变化特征。结果表明:7月中旬至8月中旬,江南地区(110°E～125°E,22.5°N～30°N)为高温日数高值区,高温日数存在季节内振荡信号。功率谱结果表明该地区日最高温度呈现出10～25 d的季节内振荡周期;在以10～15 d和20～25 d周期为主的低频变化典型年份(1989和1993年)中,影响系统与副热带高压并无直接联系,对流层中高层45°N存在2～3波的纬向波列,该波列的移动与传播可能与温度的低频变化有关。
Based on the daily observation data during 1979-2013, the characteristics of internal oscillation in summer extreme high temperature in southern of the Yangtze river were further discussed. By using Butterworth filter and power spectrum methods, results show that: From the middle of July to the middle of August, the high value center moves into southern of the Yangtze river(110°-125°E,22.5°N-30°N) and averaged hot days beyond 95% threshold show oscillation feature. Result of Power spectrum indicates daily maximum temperature presents the characteristics of intraseasonal variation in 10-25 d. The impact system is not directly related to the subtropical high in the typical low frequency year(1989 and 1993). On the middle and high troposphere, the geopotential height presents 2 to 3 waves with the obvious intraseasonal oscillation features(10-15 day and 20-25 day). The motion and propagation of the wave may be related to the low frequency variation of temperature.
Based on the daily observation data during 1979-2013, the characteristics of internal oscillation in summer extreme high temperature in southern of the Yangtze river were further discussed. By using Butterworth filter and power spectrum methods, results show that: From the middle of July to the middle of August, the high value center moves into southern of the Yangtze river(110°-125°E,22.5°N-30°N) and averaged hot days beyond 95% threshold show oscillation feature. Result of Power spectrum indicates daily maximum temperature presents the characteristics of intraseasonal variation in 10-25 d. The impact system is not directly related to the subtropical high in the typical low frequency year(1989 and 1993). On the middle and high troposphere, the geopotential height presents 2 to 3 waves with the obvious intraseasonal oscillation features(10-15 day and 20-25 day). The motion and propagation of the wave may be related to the low frequency variation of temperature.
引文
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[29] 黄勇,李崇银,王颖.2006年西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数和源地异常的成因分析[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(6):590-598.HUANG Y,LI C Y,WANG Y.Study on the causation of anomaly of cyclogenesis frequency and location of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific in 2006[J].J.Trop.Meteor.,2008,24(6):590-598.
[30] 姚素香,龚克坚,赵琛.北半球冬季中纬度位势高度场的季节内振荡[J].气象科学,2016,36(5):622-628.YAOS X,GONG K J,ZHAO C.Intraseasonal oscillation of the winter geopotential height in the middle latitude of the Northern Hemisphere[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2016,36(5):622-628.
[31] HSU P C,LEE J Y,HA K J,et al.Influences of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on heat waves in Monsoon Asia[J].Journal of Climate,2017,30(18):7191-7211.
[32] MURAKAMIM.Large-scale aspects of deep convective activity over the CATE area[J].Mon.wea.rev,1979,107(8):994.
[33] 杨秋明.主振荡型分析及其在中期天气预报中的应用[J].科学中国人,1999(6):48-49.
[34] 张婷,高庆九,孙玉婷.不同时间尺度下中国东部夏季最高温度观测与再分析资料的比较[J].高原气象,2017(2):468-479.ZHANG T,GAO Q J,SUN Y T.Comparison of reanalysis data and observations about summer maximum temperature on different time scales in Eastern China[J].Plateau Meteorology,2017(2):468-479.
[35] 张婷.不同时间尺度下中国东部夏季最高温度观测与再分析资料的比较[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2016.
[36] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].气象出版社,1999.
[37] GAO M,YANG J,WANG B,et al.How are heat waves over Yangtze River valley associated with atmospheric quasi-biweekly oscillation?[J].Climate Dynamics,2017:1-17.
[38] LUR Y,OH J H,KIMB J.A teleconnection pattern in upper-level meridional wind over the North African and Eurasian continent in summer[J].Tellus Series Adynamic Meteorology and Oceanography,2002,54(1):44-55.
[39] 李纵横,李崇银,宋洁,等.1960～2011年江淮地区夏季极端高温日数的特征及成因分析[J].气候与环境研究,2015,20(5):511-522.LI Z H,LI C Y,SONG J,et al.An analysis of the characteristics and causes of extremely high temperature days in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basins in summer 1960-2011[J].Climatic & Environmental Research,2015,20(5):511-522.
[40] 李艳,张英华,郑凤魁,等.“丝绸之路”模态与东亚夏季环流的关系[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2018,12(3):10-17.LI Y,ZHANG Y H,ZHENG F K,et al.The relationship between the silk road mode and the summer atmospheric circulation over East Asia[J].Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2018,12(3):10-17.
[2] 沈永平,王国亚.IPCC第一工作组第五次评估报告对全球气候变化认知的最新科学要点[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(5):1068-1076.SHENY P,WANG G Y.Key findings and assessment results of IPCC WGI fifth assessment report[J].Journal of Glaciology &Geocryology,2013,35(5):1068-1076.
[3] ROBINE J M,CHEUNGS L,LE R S,et al.Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003[J].Comptes Rendus Biologies,2008,331(2):171-178.
[4] J BLUNDEN,D S ARNDT,M O BARINGER.State of the climate in 2010[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2011,87(6):17-21.
[5] CECCHERINI G,RUSSO S,AMEZETOY I,et al.Magnitude and frequency of heat and cold waves in recent decades:The case of South America[J].Natural Hazards & Earth System Sciences,2016,3(12):7379-7409.
[6] G O MAGRIN,MARENGO,et al.Impacts,adaptation,and vulnerability.Part B:Regional aspects.Contribution of working group ii to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel of climate change[J].Central and South America,2014.
[7] RUSTICUCCI M.Observed and simulated variability of extreme temperature events over South America[J].Atmospheric Research,2012,106(3):1-17.
[8] FIELD C B,BARROS V,STOCKER T F,et al.Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance climate change adaptation.Special report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[J].Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism,2012,18(6):586-599.
[9] 秦玉琳,孙照渤,倪东鸿.中国东北夏季极端高温变化特征及其与环流异常的联系[J].气象与减灾研究,2012,35(2):7-16QIN Y L,SUN Z B,NI D H.Variation features of summer extreme high temperature over northeast china and its relations with atmospheric circulation anomaly[J].Meteorology and disaster reduction research,2012,35(2):7-16.
[10] 秦玉琳.中国东北夏季极端气温变化特征及其与大气环流的关系[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2012.
[11] 周晓宇,崔妍,赵春雨,等.1961-2012年东北地区极端气温事件变化特征[C]//秦大河.第31届中国气象学会年会.北京:中国气象学会,2014:10.
[12] ZHANG M,DU S Q,WU Y J,et al.Spatiotemporal changes in frequency and intensity of high-temperature events in China during 1961-2014[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2017,27(9):1027-1043.
[13] HU L,HUANG G,QU X.Spatial and temporal features of summer extreme temperature over China during 1960-2013[J].Theoretical & Applied Climatology,2017(128):1-13.
[14] HU L,HUANG G,HU K.The performance of multiple datasets in characterizing the changes of extreme air temperature over China during 1979 to 2012[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2017(1):1-14.
[15] 叶殿秀,尹继福,陈正洪,等.1961-2010年我国夏季高温热浪的时空变化特征[J].气候变化研究进展,2013,9(1):15-20.YE D X,YIN J F,CHEN Z H,et al.Spatiotemporal change characteristics of summer heatwaves in China in 1961-2010[J].Progressus Inquisitiones De Mutatione Climatis,2013,9(1):15-20.
[16] 况雪源,王遵娅,张耀存,等.中国近50年来群发性高温事件的识别及统计特征[J].地球物理学报,2014,57(6):1782-1791.KUANG X Y,WANG Z Y,ZHANG Y C,et al.Identification and statistical characteristics of the cluster high temperature events during last fifty years[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2014,57(6):1782-1791.
[17] 王鹏祥,杨金虎.中国西北近45a来极端高温事件及其对区域性增暖的响应[J].中国沙漠,2007,27(4):649-655.WANG P X,YANG J H.Extreme high temperature events and response to regional warming in recent 45 years in Northwest China[J].Journal of Desert Research,2007,55(4):649-655.
[18] 林昕,管兆勇.中国华东地区夏季高温的时空特征和年际变化[J].大气科学学报,2008,31(1):1-9.LIN X,GUAN Z Y.Temporal-spatial characters and interannual variations of summer high temperature in East China[J].Journal of Nanjing Institute of Meteorology,2008,31(1):1-9.
[19] 高荣,王凌,高歌.1956-2006年中国高温日数的变化趋势[J].气候变化研究进展,2008,4(3):177-181.GAO R,WANG L,GAO G.The trend of variation in high temperature days during 1956-2006 in China[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2008,4(3):177-181.
[20] MADDEN R A,JULIAN P R.Detection of a 40-50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the Tropical Pacific.[J].Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1971,28(5):702-708.
[21] MADDEN R A.Description of global-scale circulation cells in the tropics with a 40-50 day period[J].Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1972,29(6):1109-1123.
[22] 孙国武,信飞,孔春燕,等.大气低频振荡与延伸期预报[J].高原气象,2010,29(5):1142-1147.SUN G W,XIN F,KONG C Y,et al.Atmospheric low-frequency oscillation and extended range forecast[J].Plateau Meteorology,2010,29(5):1142-1147.
[23] 孙国武,孔春燕,信飞,等.天气关键区大气低频波延伸期预报方法[J].高原气象,2011,30(3):594-599.SUN G W,KONG C Y,XIN F,et al.Method of extended range forecast of atmospheric low-frequency wave in key region[J].Plateau Meteorology,2011,30(3):594-599.
[24] 丑纪范,郑志海,孙树鹏.10-30d延伸期数值天气预报的策略思考-直面混沌[J].气象科学,2010,30(5):569-573.CHOU J F,ZHENG Z H,SUN S P.The think about 10-30 d extended-range numerical weather prediction strategy-facing the atmosphere chaos[J].Scientia Meteorologica Sinica,2010,30(5):569-573.
[25] KYONGHWAN S,WANG W Q,GOTTOSCHALCK J,et al.Evaluation of MJO forecast skill from several statistical and dynamical forecast models[J].Journal of Climate,2009,22(9):2372-2388.
[26] 陈官军,魏凤英.基于低频振荡特征的夏季江淮持续性降水延伸期预报方法[J].大气科学,2012,36(3):633-644.CHEN G J,WEI F Y.An extended-range forecast method for the persistent heavy rainfall over the Yangtze Huaihe River Valley in summer based on the low-frequency oscillation characteristics[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2012,36(3):633-644.
[27] EMANUEL K A.Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years[J].Nature,2005,436 (7051):686-688.
[28] WEBSTER P J,HOLLAND G J,CURRY J A,et al.Changes in tropical cyclone number,duration,and intensity in a warming environment[J].Science,2005,309:1844-1846.
[29] 黄勇,李崇银,王颖.2006年西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数和源地异常的成因分析[J].热带气象学报,2008,24(6):590-598.HUANG Y,LI C Y,WANG Y.Study on the causation of anomaly of cyclogenesis frequency and location of tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific in 2006[J].J.Trop.Meteor.,2008,24(6):590-598.
[30] 姚素香,龚克坚,赵琛.北半球冬季中纬度位势高度场的季节内振荡[J].气象科学,2016,36(5):622-628.YAOS X,GONG K J,ZHAO C.Intraseasonal oscillation of the winter geopotential height in the middle latitude of the Northern Hemisphere[J].Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2016,36(5):622-628.
[31] HSU P C,LEE J Y,HA K J,et al.Influences of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation on heat waves in Monsoon Asia[J].Journal of Climate,2017,30(18):7191-7211.
[32] MURAKAMIM.Large-scale aspects of deep convective activity over the CATE area[J].Mon.wea.rev,1979,107(8):994.
[33] 杨秋明.主振荡型分析及其在中期天气预报中的应用[J].科学中国人,1999(6):48-49.
[34] 张婷,高庆九,孙玉婷.不同时间尺度下中国东部夏季最高温度观测与再分析资料的比较[J].高原气象,2017(2):468-479.ZHANG T,GAO Q J,SUN Y T.Comparison of reanalysis data and observations about summer maximum temperature on different time scales in Eastern China[J].Plateau Meteorology,2017(2):468-479.
[35] 张婷.不同时间尺度下中国东部夏季最高温度观测与再分析资料的比较[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2016.
[36] 魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].气象出版社,1999.
[37] GAO M,YANG J,WANG B,et al.How are heat waves over Yangtze River valley associated with atmospheric quasi-biweekly oscillation?[J].Climate Dynamics,2017:1-17.
[38] LUR Y,OH J H,KIMB J.A teleconnection pattern in upper-level meridional wind over the North African and Eurasian continent in summer[J].Tellus Series Adynamic Meteorology and Oceanography,2002,54(1):44-55.
[39] 李纵横,李崇银,宋洁,等.1960～2011年江淮地区夏季极端高温日数的特征及成因分析[J].气候与环境研究,2015,20(5):511-522.LI Z H,LI C Y,SONG J,et al.An analysis of the characteristics and causes of extremely high temperature days in the Yangtze-Huaihe River basins in summer 1960-2011[J].Climatic & Environmental Research,2015,20(5):511-522.
[40] 李艳,张英华,郑凤魁,等.“丝绸之路”模态与东亚夏季环流的关系[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2018,12(3):10-17.LI Y,ZHANG Y H,ZHENG F K,et al.The relationship between the silk road mode and the summer atmospheric circulation over East Asia[J].Desert and Oasis Meteorology,2018,12(3):10-17.