基于动态故障树的半潜式钻井平台钻井系统失效风险分析
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摘要
针对静态风险分析方法已不能满足海洋平台系统失效风险分析工作的准确性要求的问题,提出采用动态故障树分析法对半潜式钻井平台的钻井系统设备进行失效风险分析。基于系统功能分级思想,选取钻井系统的系统设备部件进行内部逻辑关系梳理,确定故障树定量分析的3类事件和动态逻辑门,并根据已收集的基本事件的失效数据计算得到以钻井系统失效为顶事件的系统失效率。求取基本事件在顶事件失效中所占的比重,结合故障树计算结果得出敏感性分析下的关键失效因素,并提出以钻井系统大钩失效为重点关注风险规避对象,以钻井绞车的主刹车失效、转盘部件中的方补心失效和卡瓦失效为主要关注风险规避对象的失效规避路径。
Since the static analysis can't meet the accuracy requirement of the offshore platform system failure risk analysis, it is proposed that the dynamic fault tree analysis(DFTA) method can be used to analyze the equipment's failure risk of the semi-submersible drilling platform. Based on the functional classification of the platform system, the equipment and components of the drilling system are selected and sorted out by internal logical relationship, and three types of events and the dynamic logic gate in fault tree quantitative analysis are determined. According to the collected basic events failure data, the system failure rate of the drilling system which acts as the top event can be calculated. The proportion of the basic event in the failure of the top event is calculated. Combining the calculation results of the fault tree, the key failure factors under the sensitivity analysis is obtained, and the risk avoidance objects which focuses on the failure of the traveling block hook are proposed. The failure avoidance path is also concerned with the failure of the main brake of the drilling winch,bushing failure and slip failure of rotary components as main risk avoidance objects.
Since the static analysis can't meet the accuracy requirement of the offshore platform system failure risk analysis, it is proposed that the dynamic fault tree analysis(DFTA) method can be used to analyze the equipment's failure risk of the semi-submersible drilling platform. Based on the functional classification of the platform system, the equipment and components of the drilling system are selected and sorted out by internal logical relationship, and three types of events and the dynamic logic gate in fault tree quantitative analysis are determined. According to the collected basic events failure data, the system failure rate of the drilling system which acts as the top event can be calculated. The proportion of the basic event in the failure of the top event is calculated. Combining the calculation results of the fault tree, the key failure factors under the sensitivity analysis is obtained, and the risk avoidance objects which focuses on the failure of the traveling block hook are proposed. The failure avoidance path is also concerned with the failure of the main brake of the drilling winch,bushing failure and slip failure of rotary components as main risk avoidance objects.
引文
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[2]徐克薰,俞建,郑文龙.北海亚历山大·基兰德号平台覆没事故及其原因分析[J].机械工程材料,1985(1):1-12.
[3]谭翀.基于数据分析的海洋平台安全评价与预警研究[D].北京:中国地质大学,2016.
[4]包木太,皮永蕊,孙陪艳,等.墨西哥湾“深水地平线”溢油事故处理研究进展[J].中国海洋大学学报,2015,45(1):55-58.
[5]朱锟.海洋平台爆炸事故风险分析与防护对策研究[D].山东青岛:中国石油大学,2007.
[6]董双妹.半潜式海洋平台风险评估[D].江苏镇江:江苏科技大学,2012.
[7]李晓冬.固定式海洋平台基于GUS&GSA技术的定量风险评估方法的研究[D].山东青岛:中国海洋大学,2005.
[8]郭杰.海上生产平台油气处理系统风险分析及控制[D].山东青岛:中国石油大学,2010.
[9]张玉良.一种新型动态故障树分析方法及在液压系统中的应用[D].河北秦皇岛:燕山大学,2016.
[10]高顺川.动态故障树分析方法及其实现[J].武汉:国防科技大学,2005.
[11]吴贤国,张青英,张立茂,等.基于动态故障树的盾构刀盘失效风险分析[J].土木工程与管理学报,2014,31(4):61-64.
[12]ABIMBOLA M,KHAN F,KHAKZAD N.Dynamic Safety Risk Analysis of Offshore Drilling[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2014,30:74-75.
[13]张睿,程荣.基于故障树分析法的空管设备失效风险分析[J].智能计算机与应用,2017,7(2):70-71.
[14]刘东,张红林,王波,等.动态故障树分析方法[M].北京:国防工业出版社,2007
[15]于敏,何正友,钱清泉.基于Markov过程的硬/软件综合系统可靠性分析[J].电子学报,2010,38(2):473-474.
[16]DNV.Offshore Reliability Data Handbook Distributed[M].Norway:SINTEF Industrial Management,2009.