苏州城市化与水资源环境耦合关系时序特征研究
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摘要
运用耦合协调度模型及评价指标体系,测度了苏州市2006～2015年间城市化与水资源环境耦合协调发展的时序特征。研究结果表明:(1)苏州市城市化综合指数总体呈现出较明显的增长趋势,人口、经济、空间和社会城市化等4项指数为总体升高的趋势,但是空间城市化与社会城市化指数相对而言波动较大;(2)水资源环境综合水平呈现为波动上升的趋势,但是水资源水平、水资源压力和水资源保护指数的波动较大;(3)城市化与水资源环境的耦合关系经历了早期低水平耦合后期高水平耦合的变化过程,二者的协调度也经历了初期协调性弱,而后过渡期磨合,并进入到协调发展的过程;(4) 2006～2008年和2009～2015年分别为城市化滞后于水资源环境发展、水资源环境滞后于城市化发展的两大阶段。目前,城市化与水资源环境已进入到优质协调发展阶段。明晰苏州城市化与水资源环境耦合的合关系,对促进该地区可持续发展具有重要的意义和参考价值。
Based on the comprehensive evaluation index system of urbanization and water resources environment,this paper uses the coupling coordination degree model to measure the evolution of urbanization and water resources environment in Suzhou City. A quantitative analysis was made on the coupling coordination between urbanization and water resources environment of Suzhou from 2006 to 2015. The results show that:( 1) the comprehensive level index of urbanization in Suzhou shows an obvious increasing trend,four indexes of the population,the economy,the spatial and the social urbanization also increased,but the spatial urbanization and the social urbanization level have relatively higher change ranges.( 2) The comprehensive level of water resources environment shows a trend of fluctuating growth in which the water resource amount,the water resource pressure and the water protection level have higher change ranges.( 3) The interactive coupling between the urbanization and water resources environment is generally rising,it experienced a change process of low level coupling in early stage and high level coupling in late stage. Further,the coupling coordination degree of the urbanization and water resources environment changes from a low level of coordination degree to a high level.( 4) From 2006 to 2008,the urbanization index lags behind the water resources environment.While from 2009 to 2015,the water resource environment lags behind the urbanization. At present,urbanization and water resources environment have entered into a high-quality and harmonious development stage. Understanding the coupling coordination between urbanization and water resources environment is of great importance for the sustainable development of the region.
Based on the comprehensive evaluation index system of urbanization and water resources environment,this paper uses the coupling coordination degree model to measure the evolution of urbanization and water resources environment in Suzhou City. A quantitative analysis was made on the coupling coordination between urbanization and water resources environment of Suzhou from 2006 to 2015. The results show that:( 1) the comprehensive level index of urbanization in Suzhou shows an obvious increasing trend,four indexes of the population,the economy,the spatial and the social urbanization also increased,but the spatial urbanization and the social urbanization level have relatively higher change ranges.( 2) The comprehensive level of water resources environment shows a trend of fluctuating growth in which the water resource amount,the water resource pressure and the water protection level have higher change ranges.( 3) The interactive coupling between the urbanization and water resources environment is generally rising,it experienced a change process of low level coupling in early stage and high level coupling in late stage. Further,the coupling coordination degree of the urbanization and water resources environment changes from a low level of coordination degree to a high level.( 4) From 2006 to 2008,the urbanization index lags behind the water resources environment.While from 2009 to 2015,the water resource environment lags behind the urbanization. At present,urbanization and water resources environment have entered into a high-quality and harmonious development stage. Understanding the coupling coordination between urbanization and water resources environment is of great importance for the sustainable development of the region.
引文
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[25]马荣华,孔繁翔,段洪涛,等.基于卫星遥感的太湖蓝藻水华时空分布规律认识[J].湖泊科学,2008,20(6):687-694.
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[27]黄宾,胡其昌,李霄.城市化与水环境的耦合问题研究——以杭州市为例[J].浙江水利水电学院学报,2015(1):53-57.
[28]郑楚菁,蒋智美,罗幸乐,等.长沙城市化与水资源环境交互耦合关系与时序变化研究[J].绿色科技,2016(22):109-114.
[2]徐云锋,刘玉邦,刘勇.新型城镇化建设的水资源支撑力评价[J].人民长江,2017,48(19):61-65,71.
[3]张成凤,粟晓玲,蔡焕杰.基于区间层次分析法的榆阳区水资源配置系统和谐性评价研究[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(6):1053-1063.
[4]罗奎,方创琳,马海涛.基于生产函数视角的城镇化动力机制研究[J].地理科学,2017,37(3):394-399.
[5]刘艳军,田俊峰,付占辉,等.哈大巨型城市带要素集聚程度与生态环境水平关系演变[J].地理科学,2017,37(2):172-180.
[6]黄宾.浙江人口-经济-空间发展与水环境协调关系研究[J].人民长江,2016,47(22):16-20.
[7]刘耀彬,宋学锋.城市化与生态环境耦合模式及判别[J].地理科学,2005(4):26-32.
[8]乔标,方创琳,黄金川.干旱区城市化与生态环境交互耦合的规律性及其验证[J].生态学报,2006(7):2183-2190.
[9]张立新,朱道林,杜挺,等.基于DEA模型的城市建设用地利用效率时空格局演变及驱动因素[J].资源科学,2017,39(3):418-429.
[10]李娜,孙才志,范斐.辽宁沿海经济带城市化与水资源耦合关系分析[J].地域研究与开发,2010(4):47-51.
[11]吕平毓,吕睿.基于改进PCA的重庆市水资源可持续利用评价[J].人民长江,2016,47(24):40-45.
[12]黄涛珍,刘栋,黄萍,等.基于耦合模型的城市化与水资源保护关系研究——以南京市为例[J].环境科学与管理,2015(12):9-14.
[13]张晓东,池天河. 90年代中国省级区域经济与环境协调度分析[J].地理研究,2001(4):506-515.
[14]刘秋常,韩涵,李慧敏,等.基于熵权TOPSIS法的海绵城市建设绩效评价——以河南省鹤壁市为例[J].人民长江,2017,48(14):23-26.
[15]姜磊,柏玲,吴玉鸣.中国省域经济、资源与环境协调分析——兼论三系统耦合公式及其扩展形式[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(5):788-799.
[16]方创琳,乔标.水资源约束下西北干旱区城市经济发展与城市化阈值[J].生态学报,2005(9):2413-2422.
[17]高翔,鱼腾飞,程慧波.西北地区水资源环境与城市化系统耦合的时空分异——以西陇海兰新经济带甘肃段为例[J].干旱区地理,2010(6):1010-1018.
[18]蒋元勇,章茹,丰锴斌.南昌城市化与水资源环境交互耦合作用关系分析[J].人民长江,2014,45(14):17-21.
[19]王飞,李景保,陈晓,等.皖江城市带城市化与水资源环境耦合的时空变异分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017(1):1-6.
[20]江苏省省统计局,国家统计局江苏调查总队.江苏省统计年鉴2016[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2016.
[21]胡晴,刘柄麟,张超,等.苏州市人口城镇化与土地城镇化协调关系研究[J].资源与产业,2017,19(1):23-28.
[22] 2015年苏州市国民经济和社会发展统计公报. http://jsnews2.jschina. com. cn/system/2016/01/18/027679894. shtml[EB/OL].2016-01-18.
[23]苏州市发布2015年度环境质量状况公报. http://zgsc. china.com. cn/zxun/zhzx/2016-06-03/506553. html[EB/OL]. 2016-06-03.
[24]苏州市水资源公报编制小组. 2015年苏州市水资源公报[R].苏州:苏州市水利局,2016.
[25]马荣华,孔繁翔,段洪涛,等.基于卫星遥感的太湖蓝藻水华时空分布规律认识[J].湖泊科学,2008,20(6):687-694.
[26]廖重斌.环境与经济协调发展的定量评判及其分类体系——以珠江三角洲城市群为例[J].热带地理,1999(2):76-82.
[27]黄宾,胡其昌,李霄.城市化与水环境的耦合问题研究——以杭州市为例[J].浙江水利水电学院学报,2015(1):53-57.
[28]郑楚菁,蒋智美,罗幸乐,等.长沙城市化与水资源环境交互耦合关系与时序变化研究[J].绿色科技,2016(22):109-114.