基于贝叶斯网络的生物质气化中毒事故定量bow-tie分析
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摘要
本文通过贝叶斯网络计算各原因事件的弗塞-维思利重要度,选取重要度较高的原因事件采取预防措施;并通过事件树分析确定控制措施,计算采取措施前后生物质气化中毒事故发生的概率,最后通过危险性评价矩阵对采取基于贝叶斯网络的bow-tie分析后的生物质气化中毒事故风险进行评价。结果表明,采用该方法只需对系统中部分节点采取安全措施即可有效降低事故发生概率,从而降低事故风险。
Fussell- Vesely worth of each event is calculated by Bayesian network. Prevention measures are adopted to the reason event with higher worth. The event tree analysis is conducted to determine control measures and calculate the probability of biomass gasification poisoning accidents before and after measures are taken. Finally the biomass gasification poisoning accidents after using bow- tie analysis based on Bayesian network are evaluated by risk assessment matrix. As the result,this method can reduce probability and risk of accidents by adopting safety measures to parts of the whole points of the system.
Fussell- Vesely worth of each event is calculated by Bayesian network. Prevention measures are adopted to the reason event with higher worth. The event tree analysis is conducted to determine control measures and calculate the probability of biomass gasification poisoning accidents before and after measures are taken. Finally the biomass gasification poisoning accidents after using bow- tie analysis based on Bayesian network are evaluated by risk assessment matrix. As the result,this method can reduce probability and risk of accidents by adopting safety measures to parts of the whole points of the system.
引文
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[2]孟庆杰.生物质发电工程安全管理探讨[J].科技创业家,2013(23):23.
[3]孙旋,牛秦洲,徐和飞,等.基于贝叶斯网络的人因可靠性评价[J].中国安全科学学报,2006,16(8):22-28.
[4]Leu K L,Chen Y Y,Wey C L,et al.A bayesian network reliability modeling for flexray systems[J].World academy of science,engineering and technology,2010(65):42-47.
[5]Refaul Ferdous,Faisal Khan,Rehan Sadiq,et al.Analyzing system safety and risks under uncertainty using a bow-tie diagram:An innovative approach[J].Process safety and environmental protection,2013,91(1/2):1-18.
[6]贾朋美,於孝春,宋前甫.Bow-tie技术在城镇燃气管道风险管理中的应用[J].工业安全与环保,2014,40(2):14-17.
[7]Spouge John.New generic leak frequencies for process equipment[J].Process Safety Progress,2005,24(4):249-257.
[8]Adam S.Markowski,Agata Kotynia.“Bow-tie”model in layer of protection analysis[J].Process safety and environmental protection,2011,89:205-213.
[9]Intellect,Relex Software Corporation.Reliability:A Practitioner’s guide[M].Beijing:Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics Press,2009.
[10]陈宝智.系统安全评价与预测[M].北京:冶金工业出版社,2011:143-144.