基于规模化电动车分时租赁动态成本效益建模仿真
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摘要
针对电动汽车分时租赁运营商盈利难题,以年利润为目标函数,建立了商业模式动态成本收益评估模型.通过实地调研和情景预测,分析了大规模电动汽车分时租赁项目动态成本分布和收益情况,综合研究了财税补贴、车辆购置、充电桩、车位配置和租赁价格等关键因素对运营商盈利的动态影响情况,并对分时租赁提出降成本和提高收益的建议,以解决分时租赁盈利难的问题.结果表明:当单车日均租赁时长为3. 5 h,项目达到盈亏平衡,运营管理成本、购车成本和网点建设成本是分时租赁的主要成本,分别占总成本的42. 40%、27. 21%和20. 03%;分时租赁运营商应积极利用国家和地方对电动汽车和分时租赁的支持政策,优化车载诊断系统等措施减少分时租赁成本.
To solve the profitability problem of electric vehicle leasing operators,an electric vehicle carsharing dynamic cost and benefit evaluation model was established by taking the annual profit as the objective function. According to the field research and scenario prediction,the dynamic cost distribution and income of the large-scale electric vehicle leasing project were analyzed. The dynamic impact of key factors such as fiscal and taxation subsidy,vehicle purchase,charging pile and parking space allocation,leasing price and other factors on the profitability of operators were studied,and suggestions for reducing the cost and increasing the profit on car-sharing were put forward to solve the problem of car-sharing earnings difficulty. Results show that when the average car rental time reaches 3. 5 hours,the project achieves profit and loss balance,and operation management cost,car purchase cost and site construction cost are the main costs of car-sharing,accounting for 42. 40%,27. 21% and 20. 03% of the total cost respectively; car-sharing operators should actively use national and local support policies for electric vehicles and car-sharing,and optimize on-board diagnostic systems to reduce costs.
To solve the profitability problem of electric vehicle leasing operators,an electric vehicle carsharing dynamic cost and benefit evaluation model was established by taking the annual profit as the objective function. According to the field research and scenario prediction,the dynamic cost distribution and income of the large-scale electric vehicle leasing project were analyzed. The dynamic impact of key factors such as fiscal and taxation subsidy,vehicle purchase,charging pile and parking space allocation,leasing price and other factors on the profitability of operators were studied,and suggestions for reducing the cost and increasing the profit on car-sharing were put forward to solve the problem of car-sharing earnings difficulty. Results show that when the average car rental time reaches 3. 5 hours,the project achieves profit and loss balance,and operation management cost,car purchase cost and site construction cost are the main costs of car-sharing,accounting for 42. 40%,27. 21% and 20. 03% of the total cost respectively; car-sharing operators should actively use national and local support policies for electric vehicles and car-sharing,and optimize on-board diagnostic systems to reduce costs.
引文
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[19]陈广开,曲大鹏,胡晓静,等.基于全生命周期分析的电动汽车充换电站成本收益评估[J].电力建设,2016,37(1):30-37.CHEN G K,QU D P,HU X J,et al. A cost-benefit assessment of electric vehicle charging and switching stations based on a whole life cycle analysis[J]. Electric Power Construction,2016,37(1):30-37.(in Chinese)
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[21]咸文文.电动汽车分时租赁运营模式研究[D].北京:北方工业大学,2016:45-46.XIAN W W. Research onoperation model of electric vehicles carsharing[D]. Beijing:North China University of Technology,2016:45-46.(in Chinese)
[2] BOYACI B,ZOGRAFOS K G,GEROLIMINIS N. An optimization framework for the development of efficient oneway carsharing systems[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2014(1):1-16.
[3] NILSSON M. Electricvehicles:the phenomenon of range anxiety[J/OL].[2016-06-21]. http:∥e-mobility-nsr.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/downloads/info-pool/the_ph enomenon_of_range_anxiety_elvire. pdf.
[4] AXSEN J,BURKE A,KURANI K. Batteries for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles(PHEVs):goals and the state of technology circa 2008[R]. California:Institute of Transportation Studies University of California Davis,2008.
[5] CRANE K, ECOLA L, HASSELL S. An alternative approach for identifying opportunities to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases[R]. California:RAND Corporation,2012.
[6] KING C,GRIGGS W,WIRTH F. Using a car sharing model to alleviate electric vehicle range anxiety[C/OL]∥Proceedings of the Sixteenth Yale Workshop on Adaptive and Learning Systems. New Haven:Center for Systems Science,Yale University,2013:130-135[2016-06-21].http:∥www. hamilton. nuim. ie/smarttransport/publica tions/16thYaleWorkshopJune2013. pdf,2013.
[7]罗兰贝格管理咨询公司.中国汽车共享市场增长率将达80%[N].机电商报,2014-06-30(12).
[8]宋杰.电动汽车租赁的上海模式:先抢市场,不谈盈利[J].中国经济周刊,2015(47):58-59.
[9]中国产业信息网. 2016年中国电动汽车分时租赁行业市场现状及发展前景预测[EB/OL].[2016-08-29].http:∥www. chyxx. com/industry/201608/442496. html.
[10]赵玮.车企緣何热衷于汽车共享?[J].汽车与配件,2016(25):44-46.ZHAO W. Why car companies are focus on carsharing?[J]. Automobile&Parts,2016(25):44-46.(in Chinese)
[11]高敏仪.分时租赁“金融经”[J].二十一世纪商业评论,2015(8):75.GAO M Y. Carsharing “financial classics”[J]. 21st Century Business Review,2015(8):75.(in Chinese)
[12] CORREIA G H A, ANTUNES A P. Optimization approach to depot location and trip selection in one-way carsharing systems[J]. Transportation Research Part E:Logistics and Transportation Review,2012,8(1):233-247.
[13] JORGE D, CORREIA G H A, BARNHART C.Comparing optimal relocation operations with simulated relocation policies in one-way carsharing systems[J].IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems,2014,15(4):1667-1775.
[14] CEPOLINA E M,FARINA A A. New shared vehicle system for urban areas[J]. Transportation Research Part C:Emerging Technologies,2012,21(1):230-243.
[15] FASSI A E,AWASTHI A,VIVIANI M. Evaluation of car sharing network's growth strategies through discrete event simulation[J]. Expert Systems with Applications,2012,39(8):6692-6705.
[16]纪雪洪,咸文文.电动汽车分时租赁盈利模式研究[J].汽车与配件,2015,50(1):39-41.JI X H,XIAN W W. Research on carsharing profit model of electric vehicles[J]. Automobile&Parts,2015,50(1):39-41.(in Chinese)
[17]丁晓华,王冕,陈岩,等.电动汽车共享商业模式的发展[J].科技导报,2016,34(6):105-110.DING X H, WANG M, CHEN Y, et al. The development of electric vehicle sharing business model[J]. Science&Technology Review,2016,34(6):105-110.(in Chinese)
[18]任美林,樊春燕.浅析电动汽车的分时租赁商业模式[J].科技与创新,2015(22):13-14.REN M L,FAN C Y. Analysis of carsharing business model for electric vehicles[J]. Science and Technology&Innovation,2015(22):13-14.(in Chinese)
[19]陈广开,曲大鹏,胡晓静,等.基于全生命周期分析的电动汽车充换电站成本收益评估[J].电力建设,2016,37(1):30-37.CHEN G K,QU D P,HU X J,et al. A cost-benefit assessment of electric vehicle charging and switching stations based on a whole life cycle analysis[J]. Electric Power Construction,2016,37(1):30-37.(in Chinese)
[20]中华人民共和国商务部.机动车强制报废标准规定[EB/OL].[2013-01-14]. http:∥www. mofcom. gov. cn/article/swfg/swfgbh/201303/20130300062947. shtml.
[21]咸文文.电动汽车分时租赁运营模式研究[D].北京:北方工业大学,2016:45-46.XIAN W W. Research onoperation model of electric vehicles carsharing[D]. Beijing:North China University of Technology,2016:45-46.(in Chinese)