1960—2015年两广地区夏季高温热浪变化特征
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摘要
基于两广地区44个气象站夏季日最高气温资料,运用相关性分析、IDW插值等方法,研究了1960—2015年两广地区夏季高温热浪变化趋势.结果表明:(1)近56a,两广地区高温日、高温热浪频次、强高温热浪频次均呈增加趋势,其中广东省增长率远高于广西壮族自治区.(2)在空间上,高温日数南部少北部多,由沿海向内陆递增;危害高温日从东南沿海向西北内陆递增;强高温热浪频次自2省交界处向四周递减,且沿海地区较低,内陆较高.(3)在空间变化上,高温日变化率以增加趋势为主,且自桂平-罗定-广宁-罗宁-广州-增城-连平一带向四周递减;危害高温日变化率自罗定-高要-广宁-八步-连州一带向四周递减;广东省高温热浪变化率增加趋势更为明显;强高温热浪变化率由罗定-广宁-连州一线向四周递增.(4)两广高温热浪事件与西藏高原指数、印缅槽强度指数相关性较强,高温热浪事件在广西壮族自治区与广东省具有显著的正相关性.
Based on the daily highest temperature data of Guangdong and Guangxi in summer from 1960 to 2015,using the trend analysis,correlation analysis,and climate tendency rate,IDW spatial interpolation methods,we study the time-space variation tendency of summer heat waves and its influence in recent 56 years.The results show that:(1)From 1960 to 2015,the days of high temperature,heat wave frequency,strong heat waves are increased,and the growth rate of Guangdong province is far higher than Guangxi.(2)The distribution of high temperature days and heat waves exhibit a zonal feature.The high temperature days in the south are less than that in the north region,presenting an increasing trend from the coast to the inland.Besides,the number of harm high temperature days increases from the southeast coast to the northwest inland and the frequency of strong heat waves decreases from the junction of the two areas to the coastal areas.(3)The variation rate of high temperature day is generally increasing during the 56 years,while its spatial distribution presents a decreasing trend from Guiping,Luoding,Guangning,Luoning,Guangzhou,Zengcheng,Lianping to their peripheral regions.The variation rate of harm high temperature days presents the similar trend from Luoding,Gaoyao,Guangning,Babu,Lianzhou to their peripheral regions.The increasing trend of heat wave variation rate of Guangdong province is more apparent.The variation rate of strong heat weaves is increasing from Luoding,Guangning,Lianzhou to their peripheral regions.(4)The index of the Tibetan plateau,India-burmese trough intensity present a strong correlation with heat wave events in Guangdong and Guangxi.The heat wave events of Guangdong and Guangxi have an apparent positive correlation.
Based on the daily highest temperature data of Guangdong and Guangxi in summer from 1960 to 2015,using the trend analysis,correlation analysis,and climate tendency rate,IDW spatial interpolation methods,we study the time-space variation tendency of summer heat waves and its influence in recent 56 years.The results show that:(1)From 1960 to 2015,the days of high temperature,heat wave frequency,strong heat waves are increased,and the growth rate of Guangdong province is far higher than Guangxi.(2)The distribution of high temperature days and heat waves exhibit a zonal feature.The high temperature days in the south are less than that in the north region,presenting an increasing trend from the coast to the inland.Besides,the number of harm high temperature days increases from the southeast coast to the northwest inland and the frequency of strong heat waves decreases from the junction of the two areas to the coastal areas.(3)The variation rate of high temperature day is generally increasing during the 56 years,while its spatial distribution presents a decreasing trend from Guiping,Luoding,Guangning,Luoning,Guangzhou,Zengcheng,Lianping to their peripheral regions.The variation rate of harm high temperature days presents the similar trend from Luoding,Gaoyao,Guangning,Babu,Lianzhou to their peripheral regions.The increasing trend of heat wave variation rate of Guangdong province is more apparent.The variation rate of strong heat weaves is increasing from Luoding,Guangning,Lianzhou to their peripheral regions.(4)The index of the Tibetan plateau,India-burmese trough intensity present a strong correlation with heat wave events in Guangdong and Guangxi.The heat wave events of Guangdong and Guangxi have an apparent positive correlation.
引文
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[15]庄立伟,王石立.东北地区逐日气象要素的空间插值方法应用研究[J].应用气象学报,2003,14(5):605-615.ZHUANG L W,WANG S L.Spatial interpolation methods of daily weather data in Northeast China[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2003,14(5):605-615.
[16]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.WEI F Y.Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology[M].Beijing:Meteorological Press,2007.
[17]任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50a中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2005,63(6):942-956.REN G Y,GUO J,XU M Z,et al.Climate changes of Chinas mainland over the past half century[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2005,63(6):942-956.
[18]顾润源,赵慧颖,李翀,等,1960—2008年额尔古纳河流域气候变化特征[J].冰川冻土,2011,33(6):1310-1315.GU R Y,ZHAO H Y,LI Z,et al.Characteristics of climate change in the Argun drainage basin during1960-2008[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2011,33(6):1310-1315.
[19]刘永林,延军平.1960—2012年气温突变下的两广地区干湿演变[J].浙江大学学报(理学版),2015,42(5):584-594.LIU Y L,YAN J P.The evolution of dry and wet under the background of the abrupt temperature change in Guangdong and Guangxi areas during 1960to 2012[J].Journal of Zhejiang University(Science Edition),2015,42(5):584-594.
[20]王文静,延军平,刘永林.广东省极端降水事件的变化特征[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(2):293-299.WANG W J,YAN J P,LIU Y L.Variation characteristics of extreme precipitation events in Guangdong province[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,36(2):293-299.
[2]高荣,王凌,高歌.1956—2006年中国高温日数的变化趋势[J].气候变化研究进展,2008(3):177-181.GAO R,WANG L,GAO G.The trend of variation in high temperature days during 1956to 2006in China[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2008(3):177-181.
[3]施洪波.华北地区高温日数的气候特征及变化规律[J].地理科学,2012(7):866-871.SHI H B.Climatic characteristics and the spatiotemporal variation of high temperature days in North China in 1960-2009[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2012(7):866-871.
[4]陈颖,张灵,千怀遂.华南地区近53a极端高温日数的变化特征及其区域差异[J].热带地理,2016,36(4):692-699,726.CHEN Y,ZHANG L,QIAN H S.Variation characteristics and spatial differences of extremely high temperature days over South China during the recent53years[J].Tropical Geography,2016,36(4):692-699,726.
[5]SUN Y,ZHANG X B,ZWIERS F W,et al.Rapid increase in the risk of extreme summer heat in Eastern China[J].Nature Climate Change,2014,4(12):1082-1085.
[6]杨萍,刘伟东,王启光.近40a我国极端温度变化趋势和季节特征[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(1):29-36.YANG P,LIU W D,WANG Q G,et al.The climatic change trend and seasonal characteristics of daily temperature extremes in China for the latest 40years[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2010,21(1):29-36.
[7]张勇,曹丽娟,许吟隆,等.未来我国极端温度事件变化情景分析[J].应用气象学报,2008,19(6):655-660.ZHANG Y,CAO L J,XU Y L,et al.Scenario analyses on future changes of extreme temperature events over China[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2008,19(6):655-660.
[8]石英,高学杰,吴佳,等.华北地区未来气候变化的高分辨率数值模拟[J].应用气象学报,2010,19(5):580-589.SHI Y,GAO X J,WU J,et al.Simulating future climate changes over North China with a high resolution regional climate model[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2010,19(5):580-589.
[9]IPCC.Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation:Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[R].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2012.
[10]TOBFAS A,OLALLA P G D,LINARES C,et al.Short-term effects of extreme hot summer temperatures on total daily mortality in Barcelona,Spain[J].International Journal of Biometeorology,2010,54(2):115-117.
[11]窦坤,程德海,孙翠凤,等.1961—2014年鲁西南高温日数及高温热浪时空变化特征[J].气象研究与应用,2015(2):26-30,127.DOU K,CHENG D H,SUN C F,et al.Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the number of high temperature days and heat wave from 1961to2014in Southwest of Shandong province[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2015(2):26-30,127.
[12]陈敏,耿福海,马雷鸣,等.近138a上海地区高温热浪事件分析[J].高原气象,2013,32(2):2597-2607.CHEN M,GENG F H,MA L M,et al.Analyses on the heat wave events in Shanghai in recent 138years[J].Plateau Meteorology,2013,32(2):2597-2607.
[13]罗晓玲,杜尧东,郑璟.广东高温热浪致人体健康风险区划[J].气候变化研究进展,2016,12(2):139-146.LUO X L,DU R D,ZHENG J.Risk regionalization of human health caused by high temperature&heat wave in Guangdong province[J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,2016,12(2):139-146.
[14]覃卫坚,李耀先.2010年广西高温热浪气象灾害成因分析[J].气象研究与应用,2011,32(4):13-16.TAN W J,LI Y X.Analysis on the causes of 2010high temperature heat wave meteorological disasters in Guangxi[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2011,32(4):13-16.
[15]庄立伟,王石立.东北地区逐日气象要素的空间插值方法应用研究[J].应用气象学报,2003,14(5):605-615.ZHUANG L W,WANG S L.Spatial interpolation methods of daily weather data in Northeast China[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2003,14(5):605-615.
[16]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.WEI F Y.Modern Climatic Statistical Diagnosis and Prediction Technology[M].Beijing:Meteorological Press,2007.
[17]任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50a中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2005,63(6):942-956.REN G Y,GUO J,XU M Z,et al.Climate changes of Chinas mainland over the past half century[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2005,63(6):942-956.
[18]顾润源,赵慧颖,李翀,等,1960—2008年额尔古纳河流域气候变化特征[J].冰川冻土,2011,33(6):1310-1315.GU R Y,ZHAO H Y,LI Z,et al.Characteristics of climate change in the Argun drainage basin during1960-2008[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2011,33(6):1310-1315.
[19]刘永林,延军平.1960—2012年气温突变下的两广地区干湿演变[J].浙江大学学报(理学版),2015,42(5):584-594.LIU Y L,YAN J P.The evolution of dry and wet under the background of the abrupt temperature change in Guangdong and Guangxi areas during 1960to 2012[J].Journal of Zhejiang University(Science Edition),2015,42(5):584-594.
[20]王文静,延军平,刘永林.广东省极端降水事件的变化特征[J].水土保持通报,2016,36(2):293-299.WANG W J,YAN J P,LIU Y L.Variation characteristics of extreme precipitation events in Guangdong province[J].Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,36(2):293-299.