1960-2016年中国北方地区极端干湿事件演变特征
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摘要
基于中国北方地区424个气象站点1960-2016年的日气象数据础,应用FAO PenmanMonteith模型计算潜在蒸散(ET0),基于降水量和潜在蒸散计算湿润指数,对湿润指数进行标准化后统计极端干湿事件频率,分析极端干湿事件频率的空间变化趋势、多时间尺度演变特征以及ENSO事件对极端干湿事件变化趋势的影响。结果表明:北方极端干旱和极端湿润事件频率分别呈显著下降和显著上升趋势,年际倾向率分别为-0.10次/10年和0.13次/10年。空间上,极端干旱频率整体呈减少趋势,包括青藏高原、西北和东北地区。西北极端干旱频率减少速率较大,青藏高原中部、新疆北部和东北北部部分站点极端湿润频率增加幅度较大。各年代中,华北极端干旱多发,东北和青藏高原极端湿润多发。季节上,分区极端干旱发生概率均大于极端湿润发生概率,华北极端干旱发生概率最高,青藏高原极端湿润发生概率最高。ENSO与湿润指数存在滞后性的关系。El Ni?o翌年,气候偏湿润的年份较多;La Nina翌年,气候偏干旱的年份较多。SSTA与翌年湿润指数在年际和夏季两个时间尺度上存在显著的正相关关系。
Global warming has caused non-uniform changes in precipitation intensity and distribution. Therefore, drought and flood events may increase accordingly in Northern China.Based on the daily data of 424 meteorological stations in northern China from 1960 to 2016,ET0 was calculated by using the Penman-Monteith method to examine the changes of extreme drought and wet events in the study region. We calculated the surface humid indexes based on ET0 and precipitation, and used the Mann-Kendall(MK) trend test to analyze the frequencies of extreme drought and wet events by standardized surface humid indexes. All spatial distribution maps were plotted using the linear regression interpolation method embedded in the ArcGIS10.1 software. This paper analyzed the spatio-temporal variations and multiple scale evolvement of extreme drought and wet events in northern China from 1960 to 2016, and explored the influence of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation(ENSO) on the extreme drought and wet events threshold using the correlation analysis method. The tendency rates of extreme drought and wet frequency were about-0.10 per decade and 0.13 per decade, respectively. In terms of spatial trends, the frequency of overall trend of extreme drought and wet events decreased and increased significantly from 1960 to 2016, respectively. The area where the number of extreme drought events decreased corresponded to the area where that of extreme wet events increased, including Tibetan Plateau, Northwest China, and Northeast China. The frequency of extreme drought decreased significantly in Northwest China, while that of extreme wet events increased significantly in central Tibetan Plateau, northern Xinjiang, and north of Northeast China. The annual occurrence frequency of extreme drought events was greater than that of extreme wet events. In different sub-regions, the frequency of extreme drought decreased, while that of extreme wet events increased. In different decades, the frequency of extreme drought events was higher in North China, while that of extreme wet events was higher in Northeast China and Tibetan Plateau. On month scales, summer witnessed higher probability of occurrence of extreme wet events, and the probability of occurrence of extreme drought in each month was far greater than that of extreme wet events. The probability of extreme drought was greater than that of extreme wet events in sub-regions, with the probability of extreme drought being the highest in North China and that of extreme wet events being the highest in the Tibetan Plateau. The relationship between the ENSO and the humidity index arrived with a delay. The wet events occurred frequently following El Ni?o, the drought events happened generally following La Nina. SSTA and the humidity index of next year had a significant positive correlation on annual and summer time scales. The SSTA had an important effect on drought and wet conditions in most parts of Northern China. Finally, this paper can benefit drought/flood characterization from the perspective of the overall dimensions of Northern China, and help decision making in risk-based drought/flood management in the context of global warming.
Global warming has caused non-uniform changes in precipitation intensity and distribution. Therefore, drought and flood events may increase accordingly in Northern China.Based on the daily data of 424 meteorological stations in northern China from 1960 to 2016,ET0 was calculated by using the Penman-Monteith method to examine the changes of extreme drought and wet events in the study region. We calculated the surface humid indexes based on ET0 and precipitation, and used the Mann-Kendall(MK) trend test to analyze the frequencies of extreme drought and wet events by standardized surface humid indexes. All spatial distribution maps were plotted using the linear regression interpolation method embedded in the ArcGIS10.1 software. This paper analyzed the spatio-temporal variations and multiple scale evolvement of extreme drought and wet events in northern China from 1960 to 2016, and explored the influence of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation(ENSO) on the extreme drought and wet events threshold using the correlation analysis method. The tendency rates of extreme drought and wet frequency were about-0.10 per decade and 0.13 per decade, respectively. In terms of spatial trends, the frequency of overall trend of extreme drought and wet events decreased and increased significantly from 1960 to 2016, respectively. The area where the number of extreme drought events decreased corresponded to the area where that of extreme wet events increased, including Tibetan Plateau, Northwest China, and Northeast China. The frequency of extreme drought decreased significantly in Northwest China, while that of extreme wet events increased significantly in central Tibetan Plateau, northern Xinjiang, and north of Northeast China. The annual occurrence frequency of extreme drought events was greater than that of extreme wet events. In different sub-regions, the frequency of extreme drought decreased, while that of extreme wet events increased. In different decades, the frequency of extreme drought events was higher in North China, while that of extreme wet events was higher in Northeast China and Tibetan Plateau. On month scales, summer witnessed higher probability of occurrence of extreme wet events, and the probability of occurrence of extreme drought in each month was far greater than that of extreme wet events. The probability of extreme drought was greater than that of extreme wet events in sub-regions, with the probability of extreme drought being the highest in North China and that of extreme wet events being the highest in the Tibetan Plateau. The relationship between the ENSO and the humidity index arrived with a delay. The wet events occurred frequently following El Ni?o, the drought events happened generally following La Nina. SSTA and the humidity index of next year had a significant positive correlation on annual and summer time scales. The SSTA had an important effect on drought and wet conditions in most parts of Northern China. Finally, this paper can benefit drought/flood characterization from the perspective of the overall dimensions of Northern China, and help decision making in risk-based drought/flood management in the context of global warming.
引文
[1]高继卿,杨晓光,董朝阳,等.气候变化背景下中国北方干湿区降水资源变化特征分析.农业工程学报, 2015, 31(12):99-110.[GAO J Q, YANG X G, DONG C Y, et al. Precipitation resource changed characteristics in arid and humid regions in Northern China with climate changes. Transactions of the CSAE, 2015, 31(12):99-110.]
[2]任国玉,柳艳菊,孙秀宝,等.中国大陆降水时空变异规律Ⅲ:趋势变化原因.水科学进展, 2016, 27(3):327-348.[REN G Y, LIU Y J, SUN X B, et al. Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation variability over mainland of ChinaⅢ:Causes for recent trends. Advances in Water Science, 2016, 27(3):327-348.]
[3]马柱国,华丽娟,任小波.中国近代北方极端干湿事件的演变规律.地理学报, 2003, 58(s1):69-74.[MA Z G, HUA L J, REN X B. The extreme dry/wet events in Northern China during recent 100 years. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(s1):69-74.]
[4]黄建平,季明霞,刘玉芝,等.干旱半干旱区气候变化研究综述.气候变化研究进展, 2013, 9(1):9-14.[HUANG J P,JI M X, LIU Y Z, et al. An overview of arid and semi-arid climate change. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis, 2013, 9(1):9-14.]
[5]黄建平,冉津江,季明霞.中国干旱半干旱区洪涝灾害的初步分析.气象学报, 2014, 72(6):1096-1107.[HUANG J P,RAN J J, JI M X. Preliminary analysis of the flood disaster over the arid and semi-arid regions in China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2014, 72(6):1096-1107.]
[6]马柱国,符淙斌. 1951-2004年中国北方干旱化的基本事实.科学通报, 2006, 51(20):2429-2439.[MA Z G, FU C B.Primary fact of droughts in Northern China during 1951-2014. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2006, 51(20):2429-2439.]
[7]苑全治,吴绍洪,戴尔阜,等. 1961-2015年中国气候干湿状况的时空分异.中国科学:地球科学, 2017, 47(11):1339-1348.[YUAN Q Z, WU S H, DAI E F, et al. Spatio-temporal variation of the wet-dry conditions from 1961-2015 in China. Sciences in China Series D:Earth Sciences, 2017, 60(11):2041-2050.]
[8]黄小燕,张明军,贾文雄,等.中国西北地区地表干湿变化及影响因素.水科学进展, 2011, 22(2):151-159.[HUANG X Y, ZHANG M J, JIA W X, et al. Variations of surface humidity and its influential factors in Northwest China. Advances in Water Science, 2011, 22(2):151-159.]
[9]郑然,李栋梁. 1971-2011年青藏高原干湿气候区界线的年代际变化.中国沙漠, 2016, 36(4):1106-1115.[ZHENG R,LI D L. Decadal changes of the wet and dry climate zone boundaries in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during 1971-2011.Journal of Desert Research, 2016, 36(4):1106-1115.]
[10]戴升,申红艳,李林,等.柴达木盆地气候由暖干向暖湿转型的变化特征分析.高原气象, 2013, 32(1):211-220.[DAI S, SHEN H Y, LI L, et al. Analysis on climatic transition characteristic from warm-dry to warm-wet in Tsaidam Basin.Plateau Meteorology, 2013, 32(1):211-220.]
[11]胡琦,董蓓,潘学标,等.不同时间尺度下华北平原干湿气候时空变化及成因分析.中国农业气象, 2017, 38(5):267-277.[HU Q, DONG B, PAN X B, et al. Spatiotemporal variation and causes analysis of dry-wet climate at different timescales in North China Plain. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2017, 38(5):267-277.]
[12]王利平,文明,宋进喜,等. 1961-2014年中国干燥度指数的时空变化研究.自然资源学报, 2016, 31(9):1488-1498.[WANG L P, WEN M, SONG J X, et al. Spatial-temporal variation of aridity index during 1961-2014 in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2016, 31(9):1488-1498.]
[13]卞娟娟,郝志新,郑景云,等. 1951-2010年中国主要气候区划界线的移动.地理研究, 2013, 32(7):1179-1187.[BIAN J J, HAO Z X, ZHENG J Y, et al. The shift on boundary of climate regionalization in China from 1951 to 2010. Geographical Research, 2013, 32(7):1179-1187.]
[14]王菱,谢贤群,李运生,等.中国北方地区40年来湿润指数和气候干湿带界线的变化.地理研究, 2004, 23(1):45-54.[WANG L, XIE X Q, LI Y S, et al. Changes of humid index and borderline of wet and dry climate zone in Northern China over the past 40 years. Geographical Research, 2004, 23(1):45-54.]
[15]黄亮,高苹,谢小萍,等.全球增暖背景下中国干湿气候带变化规律研究.气象科学, 2013, 33(5):570-576.[HUANG L, GAO P, XIE X P, et al. Variation laws of wet and dry climatic zones in China under global warming. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences, 2013, 33(5):570-576.]
[16]华丽娟,马柱国.亚洲和北美干湿变化及其与海表温度异常的关系.地球物理学报, 2009, 52(5):1184-1196.[HUA L J, MA Z G. The evolution of dry and wet periods in Asia and North America and its relationship with SSTA. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 2009, 52(5):1184-1196.]
[17] TIMILSENA J, PIECHOTA T, TOOTLE G, et al. Associations of interdecadal/interannual climate variability and longterm Colorado River Basin streamflow. Journal of Hydrology, 2009, 365(3-4):289-301.
[18]孙建奇,袁薇,高玉中.阿拉伯半岛—北太平洋型遥相关及其与亚洲夏季风的关系.中国科学:地球科学, 2008, 38(6):750-762.[SUN J Q, YUAN W, GAO Y Z. Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation and its relationship to the Asian monsoon. Sciences in China Series D:Earth Sciences, 2008, 51(7):1001-1012.]
[19]陈文,兰晓青,王林,等. ENSO和北极涛动对东亚冬季气候异常的综合影响.科学通报, 2013, 58(8):634-641.[CHEN W, LAN X Q, WANG L, et al. The combined effects of the ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation on the winter climate anomalies in East Asia. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2013, 58(8):634-641.]
[20]顾薇.夏季热带西太平洋海温对厄尔尼诺发展阶段我国东部汛期降水的影响分析.气象, 2016, 42(5):548-556.[GU W. Possible impact of the western tropical pacific SSTA on precipitation during the El Ni?o developing summers in eastern part of China. Meteorological Monthly, 2016, 42(5):548-556.]
[21] YIN Y H, WU S H, ZHENG D, et al. Radiation calibration of FAO56 Penman-Monteith model to estimate reference crop evapotranspiration in China. Agricultural Water Management, 2008, 95(1):77-84.
[22]王艳姣,闫峰. 1960-2010年中国降水区域分异及年代际变化特征.地理科学进展, 2014, 33(10):1354-1363.[WANG Y J, YAN F. Regional differentiation and decadal change of precipitation in China in 1960-2010. Progress in Geography, 2014, 33(10):1354-1363.]
[23]宁亮,钱永甫.中国年和季各等级日降水量的变化趋势分析.高原气象, 2008, 27(5):1010-1020.[NING L, QIAN Y F. Analyses on trends of annual and seasonal four kinds of daily precipitation in China. Plateau Meteorology, 2008, 27(5):1010-1020.]
[24]姜江,姜大膀,林一骅.中国干湿区变化与预估.大气科学, 2017, 41(1):43-56.[JIANG J, JIANG D B, LIN Y H.Changes and projection of dry/wet areas over China. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2017, 41(1):43-56.]
[25]申双和,张方敏,盛琼. 1975-2004年中国湿润指数时空变化特征.农业工程学报, 2009, 25(1):11-15.[SHEN S H,ZHANG F M, SHENG Q. Spatio-temporal changes of wetness index in China from 1975 to 2004. Transactions of the CSAE, 2009, 25(1):11-15.]
[26]胡琦,董蓓,潘学标,等. 1961-2014年中国干湿气候时空变化特征及成因分析.农业工程学报, 2017, 33(6):124-132.[HU Q, DONG B, PAN X B, et al. Spatiotemporal variation and causes analysis of dry-wet climate over period of 1961-2014 in China. Transactions of the CSAE, 2017, 33(6):124-132.]
[27]徐羽,吴艳飞,徐刚,等.长三角地区地表干湿状况及极端干湿事件特征研究.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(9):1579-1590.[XU Y, WU Y F, XU G, et al. Characteristics of surface humidity and extreme drought/wet events in Yangtze River Delta. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(9):1579-1590.]
[2]任国玉,柳艳菊,孙秀宝,等.中国大陆降水时空变异规律Ⅲ:趋势变化原因.水科学进展, 2016, 27(3):327-348.[REN G Y, LIU Y J, SUN X B, et al. Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation variability over mainland of ChinaⅢ:Causes for recent trends. Advances in Water Science, 2016, 27(3):327-348.]
[3]马柱国,华丽娟,任小波.中国近代北方极端干湿事件的演变规律.地理学报, 2003, 58(s1):69-74.[MA Z G, HUA L J, REN X B. The extreme dry/wet events in Northern China during recent 100 years. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2003, 58(s1):69-74.]
[4]黄建平,季明霞,刘玉芝,等.干旱半干旱区气候变化研究综述.气候变化研究进展, 2013, 9(1):9-14.[HUANG J P,JI M X, LIU Y Z, et al. An overview of arid and semi-arid climate change. Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis, 2013, 9(1):9-14.]
[5]黄建平,冉津江,季明霞.中国干旱半干旱区洪涝灾害的初步分析.气象学报, 2014, 72(6):1096-1107.[HUANG J P,RAN J J, JI M X. Preliminary analysis of the flood disaster over the arid and semi-arid regions in China. Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2014, 72(6):1096-1107.]
[6]马柱国,符淙斌. 1951-2004年中国北方干旱化的基本事实.科学通报, 2006, 51(20):2429-2439.[MA Z G, FU C B.Primary fact of droughts in Northern China during 1951-2014. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2006, 51(20):2429-2439.]
[7]苑全治,吴绍洪,戴尔阜,等. 1961-2015年中国气候干湿状况的时空分异.中国科学:地球科学, 2017, 47(11):1339-1348.[YUAN Q Z, WU S H, DAI E F, et al. Spatio-temporal variation of the wet-dry conditions from 1961-2015 in China. Sciences in China Series D:Earth Sciences, 2017, 60(11):2041-2050.]
[8]黄小燕,张明军,贾文雄,等.中国西北地区地表干湿变化及影响因素.水科学进展, 2011, 22(2):151-159.[HUANG X Y, ZHANG M J, JIA W X, et al. Variations of surface humidity and its influential factors in Northwest China. Advances in Water Science, 2011, 22(2):151-159.]
[9]郑然,李栋梁. 1971-2011年青藏高原干湿气候区界线的年代际变化.中国沙漠, 2016, 36(4):1106-1115.[ZHENG R,LI D L. Decadal changes of the wet and dry climate zone boundaries in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau during 1971-2011.Journal of Desert Research, 2016, 36(4):1106-1115.]
[10]戴升,申红艳,李林,等.柴达木盆地气候由暖干向暖湿转型的变化特征分析.高原气象, 2013, 32(1):211-220.[DAI S, SHEN H Y, LI L, et al. Analysis on climatic transition characteristic from warm-dry to warm-wet in Tsaidam Basin.Plateau Meteorology, 2013, 32(1):211-220.]
[11]胡琦,董蓓,潘学标,等.不同时间尺度下华北平原干湿气候时空变化及成因分析.中国农业气象, 2017, 38(5):267-277.[HU Q, DONG B, PAN X B, et al. Spatiotemporal variation and causes analysis of dry-wet climate at different timescales in North China Plain. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2017, 38(5):267-277.]
[12]王利平,文明,宋进喜,等. 1961-2014年中国干燥度指数的时空变化研究.自然资源学报, 2016, 31(9):1488-1498.[WANG L P, WEN M, SONG J X, et al. Spatial-temporal variation of aridity index during 1961-2014 in China. Journal of Natural Resources, 2016, 31(9):1488-1498.]
[13]卞娟娟,郝志新,郑景云,等. 1951-2010年中国主要气候区划界线的移动.地理研究, 2013, 32(7):1179-1187.[BIAN J J, HAO Z X, ZHENG J Y, et al. The shift on boundary of climate regionalization in China from 1951 to 2010. Geographical Research, 2013, 32(7):1179-1187.]
[14]王菱,谢贤群,李运生,等.中国北方地区40年来湿润指数和气候干湿带界线的变化.地理研究, 2004, 23(1):45-54.[WANG L, XIE X Q, LI Y S, et al. Changes of humid index and borderline of wet and dry climate zone in Northern China over the past 40 years. Geographical Research, 2004, 23(1):45-54.]
[15]黄亮,高苹,谢小萍,等.全球增暖背景下中国干湿气候带变化规律研究.气象科学, 2013, 33(5):570-576.[HUANG L, GAO P, XIE X P, et al. Variation laws of wet and dry climatic zones in China under global warming. Journal of the Meteorological Sciences, 2013, 33(5):570-576.]
[16]华丽娟,马柱国.亚洲和北美干湿变化及其与海表温度异常的关系.地球物理学报, 2009, 52(5):1184-1196.[HUA L J, MA Z G. The evolution of dry and wet periods in Asia and North America and its relationship with SSTA. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 2009, 52(5):1184-1196.]
[17] TIMILSENA J, PIECHOTA T, TOOTLE G, et al. Associations of interdecadal/interannual climate variability and longterm Colorado River Basin streamflow. Journal of Hydrology, 2009, 365(3-4):289-301.
[18]孙建奇,袁薇,高玉中.阿拉伯半岛—北太平洋型遥相关及其与亚洲夏季风的关系.中国科学:地球科学, 2008, 38(6):750-762.[SUN J Q, YUAN W, GAO Y Z. Arabian Peninsula-North Pacific Oscillation and its relationship to the Asian monsoon. Sciences in China Series D:Earth Sciences, 2008, 51(7):1001-1012.]
[19]陈文,兰晓青,王林,等. ENSO和北极涛动对东亚冬季气候异常的综合影响.科学通报, 2013, 58(8):634-641.[CHEN W, LAN X Q, WANG L, et al. The combined effects of the ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation on the winter climate anomalies in East Asia. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2013, 58(8):634-641.]
[20]顾薇.夏季热带西太平洋海温对厄尔尼诺发展阶段我国东部汛期降水的影响分析.气象, 2016, 42(5):548-556.[GU W. Possible impact of the western tropical pacific SSTA on precipitation during the El Ni?o developing summers in eastern part of China. Meteorological Monthly, 2016, 42(5):548-556.]
[21] YIN Y H, WU S H, ZHENG D, et al. Radiation calibration of FAO56 Penman-Monteith model to estimate reference crop evapotranspiration in China. Agricultural Water Management, 2008, 95(1):77-84.
[22]王艳姣,闫峰. 1960-2010年中国降水区域分异及年代际变化特征.地理科学进展, 2014, 33(10):1354-1363.[WANG Y J, YAN F. Regional differentiation and decadal change of precipitation in China in 1960-2010. Progress in Geography, 2014, 33(10):1354-1363.]
[23]宁亮,钱永甫.中国年和季各等级日降水量的变化趋势分析.高原气象, 2008, 27(5):1010-1020.[NING L, QIAN Y F. Analyses on trends of annual and seasonal four kinds of daily precipitation in China. Plateau Meteorology, 2008, 27(5):1010-1020.]
[24]姜江,姜大膀,林一骅.中国干湿区变化与预估.大气科学, 2017, 41(1):43-56.[JIANG J, JIANG D B, LIN Y H.Changes and projection of dry/wet areas over China. Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 2017, 41(1):43-56.]
[25]申双和,张方敏,盛琼. 1975-2004年中国湿润指数时空变化特征.农业工程学报, 2009, 25(1):11-15.[SHEN S H,ZHANG F M, SHENG Q. Spatio-temporal changes of wetness index in China from 1975 to 2004. Transactions of the CSAE, 2009, 25(1):11-15.]
[26]胡琦,董蓓,潘学标,等. 1961-2014年中国干湿气候时空变化特征及成因分析.农业工程学报, 2017, 33(6):124-132.[HU Q, DONG B, PAN X B, et al. Spatiotemporal variation and causes analysis of dry-wet climate over period of 1961-2014 in China. Transactions of the CSAE, 2017, 33(6):124-132.]
[27]徐羽,吴艳飞,徐刚,等.长三角地区地表干湿状况及极端干湿事件特征研究.自然资源学报, 2017, 32(9):1579-1590.[XU Y, WU Y F, XU G, et al. Characteristics of surface humidity and extreme drought/wet events in Yangtze River Delta. Journal of Natural Resources, 2017, 32(9):1579-1590.]