中国工业碳减排潜力与路径研究
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摘要
基于我国工业35个行业2000～2015年的碳排放数据,以Super-SBM模型进行碳排放效率测算,结合劳均碳排放量及劳均工业总产值构造碳排放公平指数,并基于马尔科夫链模型测算碳排放公平及碳排放效率的俱乐部趋同指数,在公平效率协调的视角构造碳减排潜力指数并对35个行业进行碳减排潜力测算,并基于公平-效率二维矩阵图以动态的视角设计我国工业碳减排路径.结果表明:我国工业碳排放公平及碳排放效率均存在较为严重的固化现象,且碳排放效率的固化程度更高,可见我国工业碳减排的效率原则更重要,国家应从效率上挖掘更多的减排潜力;在公平与效率协调视角下测算出来各行业的碳减排潜力较之公平效率相等原则下有所变化,我国工业仍存在较大的碳减排空间;我国工业大部分行业处于"低排放效率?低排放公平"的状态.因此国家应从碳排放效率提升的角度重点扶持"低排放效率?低排放公平"水平类型行业.
Based on the data collected from China's 35 industries from 2000 to 2015, efficiency of carbon emission was measured by the Super-SBM model, and the index of fairness of carbon emission was created. Further, using Markov chain model the Club convergence index of fairness and efficiency of carbon emission was measured, a index of potentialities of carbon emission reduction was created based on the coordination of fairness and efficiency to measure the 35 industries. Lastly, the carbon emission reduction path was designed on the basis of the two dimensional matrix diagram of carbon emission fairness and efficiency based on the coordinated principle. The results showed that ‘Club Convergence' existed in China's industries in both ‘fairness' and ‘efficiency'perspectives. It was noted that the carbon club convergence degree of China's regional carbon emission efficiency was higher,China's industries had long been trapped in ‘low efficiency'. China should focus more on the efficiency of carbon emission in China's industries. The coordinated principle was more accurate, with it most of the potentialities of carbon emission reduction of 35industries was improved. In the fairness-efficiency matrix, it demonstrated that most industries were ‘low efficiency' and ‘low fairness'. According to that, this paper suggested that China should focus on improving the efficiency of those industries with ‘low efficiency' and ‘low fairness', then we designed a path of carbon emission reduction under the background of Carbon rights trading market.
Based on the data collected from China's 35 industries from 2000 to 2015, efficiency of carbon emission was measured by the Super-SBM model, and the index of fairness of carbon emission was created. Further, using Markov chain model the Club convergence index of fairness and efficiency of carbon emission was measured, a index of potentialities of carbon emission reduction was created based on the coordination of fairness and efficiency to measure the 35 industries. Lastly, the carbon emission reduction path was designed on the basis of the two dimensional matrix diagram of carbon emission fairness and efficiency based on the coordinated principle. The results showed that ‘Club Convergence' existed in China's industries in both ‘fairness' and ‘efficiency'perspectives. It was noted that the carbon club convergence degree of China's regional carbon emission efficiency was higher,China's industries had long been trapped in ‘low efficiency'. China should focus more on the efficiency of carbon emission in China's industries. The coordinated principle was more accurate, with it most of the potentialities of carbon emission reduction of 35industries was improved. In the fairness-efficiency matrix, it demonstrated that most industries were ‘low efficiency' and ‘low fairness'. According to that, this paper suggested that China should focus on improving the efficiency of those industries with ‘low efficiency' and ‘low fairness', then we designed a path of carbon emission reduction under the background of Carbon rights trading market.
引文
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[11]唐建荣,张白羽,陈实.基于多目标规划的碳减排路径研究[J].工业技术经济,2012,(12):44-51.Tang J R,Zhang B Y,Chen S.Research on the ways of carbon emission reductions in China based on multi-objective programming[J].Journal of industrial technological economics,2012,(12):44-51
[12]涂正革.中国的碳减排路径与战略选择--基于八大行业部门碳排放量的指数分解分析[J].中国社会科学,2012,(3):78-94.Tu Z G.Strategic measures to reduce China carbon emissions:based on index decomposition analysis of carbon emissions in eight industries[J].Social sciences in China,2012,(3):78-94.
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[14]吴贤荣,张俊飚,田云,等.基于公平与效率双重视角的中国农业碳减排潜力分析[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(7):1172-1182.Wu X R,Zhang J B,Tian Y,et al.Analysis on China’s agricultural carbon abatement capacity from the perspective of both equity and efficiency.Journal of natural resources,2015,30(7):1172-1182.
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[19]Pan X,Liu Q,Peng X.Spatial club convergence of regional energy efficiency in China[J].Ecological Indicators,2015,51:25-30.
[20]杨明海,张红霞,孙亚男.七大城市群创新能力的区域差距及分布动态演进[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017,34(3):21-39.Yang M H,Zhang H X,Sun Y N.Regional disparity and distributional dynamic evolution of the innovation ability in seven Chinese megalopolises[J].Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,2017,34(3):21-39.
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1 为了结果的稳健性,本文同样计算基于平均数50%、100%和150%离散划分下的马氏阵及俱乐部趋同指数,发现同样是碳排放效率的固化程度更大,且基于二者俱乐部趋同指数均值得到的权重结果也差异不大,可见本文基于协调视角下的工业碳减排潜力计算结果具有一定的稳健性.同时由于3部分的减排路径是在碳排放公平和效率固化差异比较的基础上所提出,因此这一路径也有一定的稳健性.
[2]Suchul kang,elfatih A.B.eltahir.North China Plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation.Nature Communications 9.1(2018):2894.
[3]范丹.中国能源消费碳排放变化的驱动因素研究--基于LMDI-PDA分解法[J].中国环境科学,2013,33(9):1705-1713.Fan D.Driving factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption in China-Based on LMDI-PDA method[J].China Environmental Science,2013,33(9):1705-1713.
[4]郭朝先.中国工业碳减排潜力估算[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(9):13-20.Guo C X.Estimation of industrial carbon emission reduction potential in China[J].China population,resources and environment,2014,24(9):13-20.
[5]Gu B,Tan X,Zeng Y,et al.CO2,Emission reduction potential in China's electricity sector:scenario analysis based on LMDIdecomposition☆[J].Energy Procedia,2015,75:2436-2447.
[6]王勇,毕莹,王恩东.中国工业碳排放达峰的情景预测与减排潜力评估[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(10):131-140.Wang Y,Bi Y,Wang E D.Scene prediction of carbon emission peak and emission reduction potential estimation in Chinese industry[J].China population,resources and environment,2017,27(10):131-140.
[7]陈文颖,代光辉.广西重点行业二氧化碳减排潜力分析[J].环境科学与技术,2007,30(6):45-48.Chen W Y,Dai G H.Assessment of carbon emission reduction potentials in guangxi[J].Environmental Science and Technology,2007,30(6):45-48.
[8]吴常艳,黄贤金,揣小伟,等.基于EIO-LCA的江苏省产业结构调整与碳减排潜力分析[J].中国人口?资源与环境,2015,25(4):43-51.Wu C Y,Huang X J,Chuai X W,et al.Analysis of industrial structure adjustment and carbon reduction potential in jiangsu province:based on EIO-LCA model[J].China population,resources and environment,2015,25(4):43-51.
[9]张同斌,周县华,刘巧红.碳减排方案优化及其在产业升级中的效应研究[J].中国环境科学,2018,(7):2758-2767.Zhang T B,Zhou X H,Liu Q H.Optimized carbon emission reduction scheme and its effects on the industrial upgrading[J].China environmental science,2018,(7):2758-2767.
[10]陈诗一.节能减排与中国工业的双赢发展:2009-2049[J].经济研究,2010,(3):129-143.Chen S Y.Energy-save and emission-abate activity with its impact on industrial win-win development in China:2009-2049[J].Economic research journal,2010(3):129-143.
[11]唐建荣,张白羽,陈实.基于多目标规划的碳减排路径研究[J].工业技术经济,2012,(12):44-51.Tang J R,Zhang B Y,Chen S.Research on the ways of carbon emission reductions in China based on multi-objective programming[J].Journal of industrial technological economics,2012,(12):44-51
[12]涂正革.中国的碳减排路径与战略选择--基于八大行业部门碳排放量的指数分解分析[J].中国社会科学,2012,(3):78-94.Tu Z G.Strategic measures to reduce China carbon emissions:based on index decomposition analysis of carbon emissions in eight industries[J].Social sciences in China,2012,(3):78-94.
[13]Wei C,Ni J L,Du LM.Regional allocation of carbon dioxide abatement in China[J].China economic review,2012,23(3):552-565.
[14]吴贤荣,张俊飚,田云,等.基于公平与效率双重视角的中国农业碳减排潜力分析[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(7):1172-1182.Wu X R,Zhang J B,Tian Y,et al.Analysis on China’s agricultural carbon abatement capacity from the perspective of both equity and efficiency.Journal of natural resources,2015,30(7):1172-1182.
[15]Tone K.A slacks-based measure of efficiency in data envelopment analysis[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2001,130(3):498-509.
[16]Tone K.A slacks-based measure of super-efficiency in data envelopment analysis[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2002,143(1):32-41.
[17]Tone K.Dealing with undesirable outputs in DEA:a slacks based measure(SBM)approach[R].GRIPS Research Report Seires,2003-0005.
[18]周迪,程慧平.中国农业现代化发展水平时空格局及趋同演变[J].华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),2015,(1):25-35.Zhou D,Cheng H P.Evolvement of convergence and spatial patterns of agricultural modernization in China[J].Journal of South China Agriculture university(Social science edition),2015,(1):25-35.
[19]Pan X,Liu Q,Peng X.Spatial club convergence of regional energy efficiency in China[J].Ecological Indicators,2015,51:25-30.
[20]杨明海,张红霞,孙亚男.七大城市群创新能力的区域差距及分布动态演进[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2017,34(3):21-39.Yang M H,Zhang H X,Sun Y N.Regional disparity and distributional dynamic evolution of the innovation ability in seven Chinese megalopolises[J].Journal of Quantitative&Technical Economics,2017,34(3):21-39.
[21]Regional disparity and distributional dynamic evolution of the innovation ability in seven chinese megalopolises.The journal of quantitative&technical economics,2017,34(3):21-39.
[22]Gallo J L.Space-time analysis of GDP disparities among European regions:a markov chain approach[J].International Regional Science Review,2001,27(2):138-163.
1 为了结果的稳健性,本文同样计算基于平均数50%、100%和150%离散划分下的马氏阵及俱乐部趋同指数,发现同样是碳排放效率的固化程度更大,且基于二者俱乐部趋同指数均值得到的权重结果也差异不大,可见本文基于协调视角下的工业碳减排潜力计算结果具有一定的稳健性.同时由于3部分的减排路径是在碳排放公平和效率固化差异比较的基础上所提出,因此这一路径也有一定的稳健性.