横断山区山地灾害的动态危险性评价
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摘要
以横断山区的崩滑流山地灾害为研究对象,选取坡度、坡向、曲率、相对高差、岩性、断裂带密度和河网密度作为该区域山地灾害静态危险性的评价因子,采用频率比法计算了横断山区山地灾害静态危险度。在此基础上,重点考虑降雨因子对山地灾害危险性动态变化的影响,并基于灰色关联度法确定静态危险度和降雨因子对山地灾害动态危险性影响的相对权重,最后采用因子叠加法实现了横断山区山地灾害的动态危险性评价。相关研究成果对于横断山区的发展规划和山地灾害的防灾减灾工作具有重要指导意义。
The mountain hazards such as collapses,landslides and debris flows in Hengduan mountain area are taken as research subjects,and slope,aspect,curvature,relative relief,lithology,fault density and drainage network density are taken as static evaluation factors of mountain hazards,using frequency ratio method to assess the static hazard of mountain hazards. On the basis,considering the dynamic influence of rainfall factor,the relativity analysis method is used to determine the relative weights of static hazard and rainfall factor. Finally,factors superposition method is used to realize the dynamic hazard assessment of mountain hazards in Hengduan Mountain area. The relevant research results have important guiding significance for the development plan and the prevention and mitigation of mountain hazards in Hengduan Mountain area.
The mountain hazards such as collapses,landslides and debris flows in Hengduan mountain area are taken as research subjects,and slope,aspect,curvature,relative relief,lithology,fault density and drainage network density are taken as static evaluation factors of mountain hazards,using frequency ratio method to assess the static hazard of mountain hazards. On the basis,considering the dynamic influence of rainfall factor,the relativity analysis method is used to determine the relative weights of static hazard and rainfall factor. Finally,factors superposition method is used to realize the dynamic hazard assessment of mountain hazards in Hengduan Mountain area. The relevant research results have important guiding significance for the development plan and the prevention and mitigation of mountain hazards in Hengduan Mountain area.
引文
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[2]兰恒星,王苓涓,周成虎.云南小江流域滑坡关键影响因子研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2003,14(1):100-106.
[3]黄靖,第宝锋,边静虹,等.凉山州山地灾害空间分布特征及人为驱动力分析[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(6):278-283.
[4]白永健,铁永波,倪化勇,等.鲜水河流域地质灾害时空分布规律及孕灾环境研究[J].灾害学,2014,29(4):69-75.
[5]陶媛,胡凯衡,田永中,等.云南鲁甸地震次生山地灾害分布规律与特征[J].地球科学与环境学报,2015,37(4):84-93.
[6]曹楠,申太丽,罗水莲,等.西昌市地质灾害发育分布规律及防灾建议[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2010,21(1):127-132.
[7]李秀珍,刘希林,苏鹏程.四川凉山州安宁河流域泥石流危险性评价[J].防灾减灾工程学报,2005,25(4):426-430,457.
[8]胡凯衡,陈成,李秀珍,等.地震区降雨作用下泥石流易发性动态评估[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2018,29(2):1-8.
[9]徐兴华,唐小明,游省易,等.东南沿海山区小流域突发地质灾害动态风险评价与应急预警[J].灾害学,2018,33(4):78-85,92.
[10]戴悦,唐中实.滑坡区域危险性的动态预测方法研究[J].测绘通报,2014(8):44-47.
[11]张永双,姚鑫,郭长宝,等.龙门山地区震后泥石流灾害区域预警研究[J].西南交通大学学报,2016,51(5):1014-1023.
[12]时振钦,邓伟,张少尧.近25年横断山区国土空间格局与时空变化研究[J].地理研究,2018,37(3):607-621.
[13]毛刚,胡月萍,陈媛.地质灾害频发山区聚落安全性探索———以横断山系的集镇和村庄为例[J].西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版),2014,46(1):101-108.
[14]马宏杰.中国西南横断山地区新生代地层学及古环境变化研究[D].昆明:昆明理工大学,2013.
[15]边江豪,李秀珍,胡凯衡.横断山区山地灾害的区域分布特征与动态演化规律研究[J].工程地质学报,2018,26(S1):6-13.
[16] MONDAL S,MAITI R. Integrating the Analytical Hierarchy Process(AHP)and the Frequency Ratio(FR)model in landslide susceptibility mapping of Shiv-khola watershed,Darjeeling Himalaya[J]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Science,2013,4(4):200-212.
[17] GUO C,MONTGOMERY D R,ZHANG Y,et al. Quantitative assessment of landslide susceptibility along the Xianshuihe fault zone,Tibetan Plateau,China[J]. Geomorphology,2015,248:93-110.
[18]李秀珍,王成华,邓宏艳.灰色关联度法和距离判别分析法在溪洛渡库区潜在滑坡判识中的应用[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2010,21(4):77-81.