中国储能产业中动力电池梯次利用的商业价值
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摘要
动力电池作为储能最佳的载体之一,是否具备商业价值成为影响储能产业发展的重要因素?在对国内外储能产业发展现状分析的基础上,应用系统动力学理论从发电侧、电网侧和用户侧以及辅助服务等方面对影响商业价值的成本和收益要素进行深入分析。进一步引入碳排放政策下的环境收入等指标,系统梳理各成本/收入指标间的相互关系,构建梯次利用动力电池储能的系统动力学模型。利用VENSIM软件对中国首个"金太阳项目"——"张北风光储输示范项目"的动力电池梯次利用储能的商业价值模型进行仿真模拟。研究表明:梯次利用动力电池储能具有一定的经济性,其商业价值的提高可以从电池成本、政府补贴以及峰谷价差等多角度来思考。未来随着电池成本下降、额定容量增加、峰谷电价差、国家补贴等因素的变化,中国储能产业中动力电池梯次利用的商业价值将会更加显著。
Power battery is one of the best carriers for energy storage. Whether it has commercial value or not has become an important factor affecting the development of the energy storage industry. Based on the analysis of the status quo of the development of domestic and foreign energy storage industries,this paper applies system dynamics theory to in-depth analysis of the cost and revenue factors affecting business value from the aspects of generation side,grid side and user side,and ancillary services. Further introduce the environmental income and other indicators under the carbon emission policy,systematically sort out the interrelationships among the various cost/income indicators,and build a system dynamics model that utilizes the energy storage of the power battery. Finally,this paper uses VENSIM software to simulate the commercial value model of energy storage using the power battery of China's first "Golden Sun Project"—"Zhangbei Scenery Storage and Transportation Demonstration Project". The research shows that the use of energy storage for power batteries in a cascade is economical. The increase in commercial value can be considered from the perspectives of battery costs,government subsidies,and peak-to-valley spreads. In the future,as the cost of batteries decreases,the rated capacity increases,the price difference between peaks and valleys,and state subsidies change,the commercial value of the use of power batteries in China's energy storage industry will become more significant.
Power battery is one of the best carriers for energy storage. Whether it has commercial value or not has become an important factor affecting the development of the energy storage industry. Based on the analysis of the status quo of the development of domestic and foreign energy storage industries,this paper applies system dynamics theory to in-depth analysis of the cost and revenue factors affecting business value from the aspects of generation side,grid side and user side,and ancillary services. Further introduce the environmental income and other indicators under the carbon emission policy,systematically sort out the interrelationships among the various cost/income indicators,and build a system dynamics model that utilizes the energy storage of the power battery. Finally,this paper uses VENSIM software to simulate the commercial value model of energy storage using the power battery of China's first "Golden Sun Project"—"Zhangbei Scenery Storage and Transportation Demonstration Project". The research shows that the use of energy storage for power batteries in a cascade is economical. The increase in commercial value can be considered from the perspectives of battery costs,government subsidies,and peak-to-valley spreads. In the future,as the cost of batteries decreases,the rated capacity increases,the price difference between peaks and valleys,and state subsidies change,the commercial value of the use of power batteries in China's energy storage industry will become more significant.
引文
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[2]中国汽车工业协会.2017年汽车工业经济运行情况(中国汽车工业协会信息发布会通稿)[EB/OL].(2019-01-11)[2018-04-11].http://www.autostats.org.cn/ReadArticle.asp?NewsID=10030.
[3]刘颖琦,李苏秀,张雷,等.梯次利用动力电池储能的特点及应用展望[J].科技管理研究,2017(1):59-65.
[4]DEBNATH U K,AHMAD I,HABIBI D.Quantifying economic benefits of second life batteries of gridable vehicles in the smart grid[J].International Journal of Electrical Power&Energy Systems,2014,63:577-587.
[5]NEUBAUER J,PESARAN A.The ability of battery second use strategies to impact plug-in electric vehicle prices and serve utility energy storage applications[J].Journal of Power Sources,2011,196(23):10351-10358.
[6]AGNEW S,DARGUSCH P.Consumer preferences for household-level battery energy storage[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2017,75:609-617.
[7]HEREDIA F J,CUADRADO M D,CORCHERO C.On optimal participation in the electricity markets of wind power plants with battery energy storage systems[J].Computers&Operations Research,2018,96:316-329.
[8]ATHERTON J,SHARMA R,SALGADO J.Techno-economic analysis of energy storage systems for application in wind farms[J].Energy,2017,135:540-552.
[9]SIDHU A S,POLLITT M G,ANAYA K L.A social cost benefit analysis of grid-scale electrical energy storage projects:a case study[J].Applied Energy,2018,212:881-894.
[10]杨裕生,程杰,曹高萍.规模储能装置经济效益的判据[J].电池,2011(1):19-21.
[11]NEWBERY D.Shifting demand and supply over time and space to manage intermittent generation:the economics of electrical storage[J].Energy Policy,2018,113:711-720.
[12]SOBERANIS M A E,MITHRUSH T,BASSAM A,et al.A sensitivity analysis to determine technical and economic feasibility of energy storage systems implementation:a flow battery case study[J].Renewable Energy,2018,115:547-557.
[13]HEYMANS C,WALKER S B,YOUNG S B,et al.Economic analysis of second use electric vehicle batteries for residential energy storage and load-levelling[J].Energy Policy,2014,71:22-30.
[14]ZHENG M,WANG X,MEINRENKEN C J,et al.Economic and environmental benefits of coordinating dispatch among distributed electricity storage[J].Applied Energy,2018,210:842-855.
[15]TONG S,FUNG T,KLEIN M P,et al.Demonstration of reusing electric vehicle battery for solar energy storage and demand side management[J].Journal of Energy Storage,2017,11:200-210.
[16]GANDHI O,RODRIGUEZ-GALLEGOS C D,ZHANG W,et al.Economic and technical analysis of reactive power provision from distributed energy resources in microgrids[J].Applied Energy,2018,210:827-841.
[17]LIN B,WU W.Economic viability of battery energy storage and grid strategy:a special case of China electricity market[J].Energy,2017,124:423-434.
[18]LAURISCHKAT K,JANDT D.Techno-economic analysis of sustainable mobility and energy solutions consisting of electric vehicles,photovoltaic systems and battery storages[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,179:642-661.
[19]BAHMANI-FIROUZI B,AZIZIPANAH-ABARGHOOEE R.Optimal sizing of battery energy storage for micro-grid operation management using a new improved bat algorithm[J].International Journal of Electrical Power&Energy Systems,2014,56:42-54.
[20]CORTéS P,MUNUZURI J,BERROCAL-DE-O M,et al.Genetic algorithms to optimize the operating costs of electricity and heating networks in buildings considering distributed energy generation and storage[J].Computers&Operations Research,2018,96:157-172.
[21]LI J,XIONG R,MU H,et al.Design and real-time test of a hybrid energy storage system in the microgrid with the benefit of improving the battery lifetime[J].Applied Energy,2018,218:470-478.
[22]MAY G J,DAVIDSON A,MONAHOV B.Lead batteries for utility energy storage:a review[J].Journal of Energy Storage,2018,15:145-157.
[23]韩冬,严正,宋依群,等.基于系统动力学的智能电网动态评价方法[J].电力系统自动化,2012(3):16-21.
[24]钟永光,贾晓菁,钱颖.系统动力学(第2版)[M].北京:科学出版社,2017.
[25]ZAKERI B,SYRI S.Electrical energy storage systems:a comparative life cycle cost analysis[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2015,42:569-596.
[26]修晓青,李建林,惠东.用于电网削峰填谷的储能系统容量配置及经济性评估[J].电力建设,2013(2):1-5.
[27]李蕊.配电网可靠性与重要电力用户停电损失研究[D].北京:中国电力科学研究院,2010.
[28]张金国,焦东升,王小君,等.基于梯级利用电池的储能系统经济运行分析[J].电网技术,2014(9):2551-2555.
[29]苏虎,栗君,吴玉光等.储能电池系统经济价值的评估[J].上海电力学院学报,2013(4):315-320.
[30]北京市发展和改革委员会.关于开展碳排放权交易试点工作的通知[EB/OL].(2013-11-20)[2018-04-10].http://qhs.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfg/201312/t20131231_574013.html.
[31]江苏省物价局.江苏省物价局关于调整电价有关事项的通知[EB/OL].(2016-06-15)[2018-04-11].http://www.jiangyin.gov.cn:88/websites/_ext/wzjq/xxgk/detail_xxgk.jsp?id=kqgtbn4muilr.
[32]浙江省物价局.浙江省物价局关于合理调整电价结构有关事项的通知[EB/OL].(2017-07-20)[2018-04-11].http://www.zj.gov.cn/art/2017/7/20/art_13007_293631.html.