我国房地产市场特征和影响房价的因素分析
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摘要
本文重点分析了我国商品房市场发展的整体状况和结构特征以及我国房地产市场的本质特征和影响房价的十五个因素,得出以下几点结论与判断:我国大部分存量住房类似股票市场的非流通股,剩余的流通二手房,特别是中心城区的二手房资源随着城镇化的推进,越来越稀缺,极易被投资投机势力操纵,出现非理性上涨;我国房地产价格的上涨是结构性的,是十五个因素综合影响的结果,全国范围内并不存在系统性的房地产价格泡沫;由于文化传统和计划生育政策的影响,用惯用的房价收入比和租售比来衡量房地产泡沫,不适用于当下的中国。
this paper mainly analyzes the overall situation of the development of the commercial housing market and the structure characteristics and the essential characteristics of real estate market in China and fifteen factors influencing prices,the following conclusions and judging: most of the housing stock in China similar to the non-tradable shares of the stock market,the rest of the circulation of second-hand housing,especially the central city of secondary resources along with the advancement of urbanization,more and more scarce,easily manipulated by forces of speculative investment,appear irrational rise; The rise of China's real estate prices is structural and the result of the combined influence of 15 factors. There is no systematic real estate price bubble in China. As a result of cultural traditions and family planning policies,the commonly used price-to-income ratio and price-to-rent ratio are not applicable in China today.
this paper mainly analyzes the overall situation of the development of the commercial housing market and the structure characteristics and the essential characteristics of real estate market in China and fifteen factors influencing prices,the following conclusions and judging: most of the housing stock in China similar to the non-tradable shares of the stock market,the rest of the circulation of second-hand housing,especially the central city of secondary resources along with the advancement of urbanization,more and more scarce,easily manipulated by forces of speculative investment,appear irrational rise; The rise of China's real estate prices is structural and the result of the combined influence of 15 factors. There is no systematic real estate price bubble in China. As a result of cultural traditions and family planning policies,the commonly used price-to-income ratio and price-to-rent ratio are not applicable in China today.
引文
[1]谢国忠.泡沫共存的石油和房地产[J].财经界,2004(9):16-17.
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[9]孙明春,陈家瑶,孙驰.中国房地产泡沫经济开始破灭[J].金融发展评论,2010(8):27-32.
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[11]陈进国,刘金娥.异质信念、通货幻觉和我国房地产价格泡沫[J].经济管理,2011(2):46-53.
[12]清水爱樱美.日本泡沫经济形成与破灭对中国的启示[J].中国外资,2012(6):199-200.
[13]魏雅华.中国楼市:熊市周期会多长[J].检察风云,2012(4):19-22.
[14]郭媛萍,马文军.中国房地产泡沫问题探析[J].经济前沿. 2003(7):28-30.
[15]陆晓逊.中国房价高是必然的[J].沪港经济,2004(12):47.
[16]吴坤岭,对摩根士丹利首席经济学家说“不”[J].住宅产业,2004(10):79-81.
[17]陈真诚.负利率或致房价再涨[J].法人,2010(10):8-9.
[18]钟伟,魏伟.经济增长、汇率和房地产:国际比较及对中国的启示[J].国际金融研究,2014(6):3-9.
[19]张丽敏.中国与国际一线城市房价对比分析[J].现代经济信息,2016(11):4.
[20]安田明宏,中国房市不会重蹈日本覆辙[J].中国中小企业,2016(5):17.
[21]张婕.北上广深房价保障的逻辑[J].金融经济,2016(7):53-54.
[22]Dixit A. K. and Stiglitz J. E.. Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity[J]. American Economic Review,1977,67(3):297-308.
[23]McCarthy J.,Peach R. W.. Are Home Prices the Next Bubble?[J]. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review,2004,10(3):1-17.
[2]任志强.别拿日本泡沫当镜子[J].中国经济周刊,2007(5):50.
[3]钟伟,董藩,林采宜.全球资产泡沫下的中国楼市[J].中国外汇. 2016(15):26-28.
[4]杨德才,东南亚金融危机对中国房地产开发的启示[J].中国房地产,1998(6):70-72.
[5]朱小棣.美国“双轨制”住房政策和它对中国住房改革的启示[J].中国房地产金融,1999(6):42-44.
[6]顾云昌.中国房地产业现在高火未来防过火[J].房地产导刊. 2002(Z1):22-27.
[7]王铮.断崖边的房地产资金链[J].经济月刊,2002(11):18-21.
[8]倪鹏飞.中国房地产:徘徊在泡沫边缘[J].财经界,2004(11):66-68.
[9]孙明春,陈家瑶,孙驰.中国房地产泡沫经济开始破灭[J].金融发展评论,2010(8):27-32.
[10]叶楚华.房产泡沫撑不过四年[J].西部论丛,2010(9):44-46.
[11]陈进国,刘金娥.异质信念、通货幻觉和我国房地产价格泡沫[J].经济管理,2011(2):46-53.
[12]清水爱樱美.日本泡沫经济形成与破灭对中国的启示[J].中国外资,2012(6):199-200.
[13]魏雅华.中国楼市:熊市周期会多长[J].检察风云,2012(4):19-22.
[14]郭媛萍,马文军.中国房地产泡沫问题探析[J].经济前沿. 2003(7):28-30.
[15]陆晓逊.中国房价高是必然的[J].沪港经济,2004(12):47.
[16]吴坤岭,对摩根士丹利首席经济学家说“不”[J].住宅产业,2004(10):79-81.
[17]陈真诚.负利率或致房价再涨[J].法人,2010(10):8-9.
[18]钟伟,魏伟.经济增长、汇率和房地产:国际比较及对中国的启示[J].国际金融研究,2014(6):3-9.
[19]张丽敏.中国与国际一线城市房价对比分析[J].现代经济信息,2016(11):4.
[20]安田明宏,中国房市不会重蹈日本覆辙[J].中国中小企业,2016(5):17.
[21]张婕.北上广深房价保障的逻辑[J].金融经济,2016(7):53-54.
[22]Dixit A. K. and Stiglitz J. E.. Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity[J]. American Economic Review,1977,67(3):297-308.
[23]McCarthy J.,Peach R. W.. Are Home Prices the Next Bubble?[J]. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review,2004,10(3):1-17.