山东半岛夏季降水异常的环流型及影响因子分析
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摘要
利用1961——2016年华东地区106个气象观测站的日降水数据和再分析资料,分析引起山东半岛夏季降水异常的大气环流型及其与前期下垫面因子(海温和土壤湿度)的关系,结果发现:1)当孟加拉湾出现西南风异常,日本列岛以南和贝加尔湖西南侧地区分别呈反气旋和气旋式环流异常时,加强了向山东半岛的水汽输送,配合区域大气上升运动异常最终导致山东半岛夏季降水偏多;反之,当孟加拉湾出现西北风异常,日本列岛以南和贝加尔湖西南地区分别呈气旋和反气旋式环流异常时山东半岛降水偏少。2)孟加拉湾和北太平洋中部关键区的对流层整层位势高度与下垫面海温自春季持续至夏季存在显著正相关,当两个地区的整层位势高度均呈正异常时,分别对应夏季孟加拉湾的强西风气流和日本列岛以南的反气旋环流异常。3)区域土壤湿度异常引起的感热和潜热通量异常,可能是引起贝加尔湖关键区位势高度和山东半岛局地对流异常的原因:贝加尔湖西南地区土壤湿度偏大时,其上空对流层位势高度为负异常;山东半岛地区土壤湿度偏大时,其上空对流层大气出现异常上升运动。4)利用关键区春季下垫面因子(海温和土壤湿度)建立山东半岛夏季降水的统计预测模型,留一交叉检验的距平同号率达到75%。这些结果可为山东半岛夏季降水预测提供重要参考。
According to the daily precipitation data of 106 meteorological stations in East China and NCEP reanalysis data from 1961 to 2016,the atmospheric circulation patterns that cause the summer precipitation anomaly in Shandong Peninsula and their correlations with the underlying surface factors( SST and soil moisture) are analyzed. The results are as follows. 1) When anomalous southwesterly winds occur over the Bay of Bengal,anomalous anticyclonic circulations occur over the south of Japanese Islands,and anomalous cyclonic circulations occur over the southwest of Lake Baikal,the transfer of water vapor to Shandong Peninsula is intensified,and coordinated with anomalous atmospheric ascending movement,the summer precipitation in Shandong Peninsula is more. On the contrary,with the accurance of anomalous northwesterly winds over the Bay of Bengal,anomalous cyclonic circulations over the south of Japanese Islands,and anomalous anticyclonic circulations over the southwest of Lake Baikal,Shandong Peninsula gets less precipitation in summer. 2) A significant positive correlation between geopotential height of the whole troposphere and underlying SST in the critical regions of the Bay of Bengal and central Pacific can persist from spring to summer,and when the geopotential height anomaly of the whole troposphere in the two regions is in the positive phase,the strong westerly wind over the Bay of Bengal and the anticyclone circulation over the south of Japanese Islands occur in summer,respectively. 3) The anomalous sensible heat and latent heat flux caused by the soil moisture anomaly could explain the geopotential height anomaly in the critical regions of Lake Baikal and local convection anomaly in Shandong Peninsula. Higher soil moisture in the southwest of Lake Baikal corresponds to negative anomaly of geopotential height in the upper troposphere and higher soil moisture in Shandong Peninsula corresponds to anomalous ascending movement in the upper troposphere. 4) Using the underlying surface factors( SST and soil moisture) in spring in critical regions,a multivariate statistical regress-forecasting model for summer precipitation is established in Shandong Peninsula,whose anomaly coincidence rate is about 75% by leave-one-out cross validation. These results can provide important reference for summer precipitation prediction in Shandong Peninsula.
According to the daily precipitation data of 106 meteorological stations in East China and NCEP reanalysis data from 1961 to 2016,the atmospheric circulation patterns that cause the summer precipitation anomaly in Shandong Peninsula and their correlations with the underlying surface factors( SST and soil moisture) are analyzed. The results are as follows. 1) When anomalous southwesterly winds occur over the Bay of Bengal,anomalous anticyclonic circulations occur over the south of Japanese Islands,and anomalous cyclonic circulations occur over the southwest of Lake Baikal,the transfer of water vapor to Shandong Peninsula is intensified,and coordinated with anomalous atmospheric ascending movement,the summer precipitation in Shandong Peninsula is more. On the contrary,with the accurance of anomalous northwesterly winds over the Bay of Bengal,anomalous cyclonic circulations over the south of Japanese Islands,and anomalous anticyclonic circulations over the southwest of Lake Baikal,Shandong Peninsula gets less precipitation in summer. 2) A significant positive correlation between geopotential height of the whole troposphere and underlying SST in the critical regions of the Bay of Bengal and central Pacific can persist from spring to summer,and when the geopotential height anomaly of the whole troposphere in the two regions is in the positive phase,the strong westerly wind over the Bay of Bengal and the anticyclone circulation over the south of Japanese Islands occur in summer,respectively. 3) The anomalous sensible heat and latent heat flux caused by the soil moisture anomaly could explain the geopotential height anomaly in the critical regions of Lake Baikal and local convection anomaly in Shandong Peninsula. Higher soil moisture in the southwest of Lake Baikal corresponds to negative anomaly of geopotential height in the upper troposphere and higher soil moisture in Shandong Peninsula corresponds to anomalous ascending movement in the upper troposphere. 4) Using the underlying surface factors( SST and soil moisture) in spring in critical regions,a multivariate statistical regress-forecasting model for summer precipitation is established in Shandong Peninsula,whose anomaly coincidence rate is about 75% by leave-one-out cross validation. These results can provide important reference for summer precipitation prediction in Shandong Peninsula.
引文
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[7]徐桂玉,杨修群,孙旭光.华北降水年代际、年际变化特征与北半球大气环流的联系[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(3):511-518.
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[9]张寿荣,陈余明,胡永松,等.印缅槽和高原指数与春季降水的短期气候预测[J].贵州气象,2013,37(1):29-30,44.
[10]孙建奇,袁薇,高玉中.阿拉伯半岛-北太平洋型遥相关及其与亚洲夏季风的关系[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2008,38(6):750-762.
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[12]王庆.山东夏季降水与东亚夏季风以及大气环流异常的关系[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2003.
[13]王庆,刘诗军.影响山东夏季降水的季风水汽输送特征分析[J].气象科学,2006,26(2):197-202.
[14]杨士恩,王启.山东夏季降水的气候特征及其成因[J].热带气象学报,2007,23(1):65-71.
[15]滕华超.山东省夏季降水与大气环流型关系分析[J].干旱气象,2016,34(5):789-795.
[16]杨晓霞,刘厚赞,刘梦玉,等.海温场与副热带高压及山东夏季降水关系分析[J].南京气象学院学报,1997,20(2):243-247.
[17]张苏平,朱平盛,胡桂芳.山东夏季降水与北太平洋SST和大气环流的关系[J].气象,1997,23(4):3-8.
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[19]孟祥新,王娜,商林.海温异常对山东夏季降水的影响分析[J].气象,2017,43(10):1259-1266.
[20]刘永平,张潇潇,薛峰.山东省夏季降水的年代际变化和年际变化[J].气象科技进展,2016,6(1):21-25.
[21]陈乾金,高波,李维京,等.青藏高原冬季积雪异常和长江中下游主汛期旱涝及其与环流关系的研究[J].气象学报,2000,58(5):582-595.
[22]马柱国,魏和林,符淙斌.中国东部区域土壤湿度的变化及其与气候变率的关系[J].气象学报,2000,58(3):278-287.
[23]马柱国,符淙斌,谢力,等.土壤湿度和气候变化关系研究中的某些问题[J].地球科学进展,2001,16(4):563-568.
[24]SHUKLA J,MINTZ Y.Influence of land-surface evapotranspiration on the Earth's climate[J].Science,1982,215(4539):1498-1501.
[25]ALFARO E J,GERSHUNOV A,CAYAN D.Prediction of summer maximum and minimum temperature over the central and western United States:The roles of soil moisture and sea surface temperature[J].J Climate,2006,19(8):1407-1421.
[26]郭飞燕,左卫强,郭飞龙,等.伴随IOD型和独立型ENSO对山东气候年际变化的影响[J].海洋气象学报,2017,37(4):34-48.
[27]郭飞燕,毕玮,郭飞龙,等.山东气候年际变化特征及其与ENSO的关系[J].海洋与湖沼,2017,48(3):465-474.
[28]顾伟宗,陈丽娟,左金清,等.多因子协同作用对1992年和1998年黄淮地区夏季降水异常的影响[J].大气科学,2016,40(4):743-755.
[29]徐康,祝从文,何金海.近50年环贝加尔湖区变暖对中国华北夏季降水的影响机理[J].高原气象,2011,30(2):309-317.
[30]赵平,周自江.东亚副热带夏季风指数及其与降水的关系[J].气象学报,2005,63(6):933-941.
[31]程乘,朱益民,丁黄兴,等.中国东部地区夏季降水和环流的年代际转型及其与PDO的联系[J].气象科学,2017,37(4):450-457.
[32]杨修群,朱益民,谢倩,等.太平洋年代际振荡的研究进展[J].大气科学,2004,28(6):979-992.
[33]NEWMAN M,ALEXANDER M A,AULT T R,et al.The pacific decadal oscillation,revisited[J].J Climate,2012,29(12):4399-4427.
[34]PENG S,ROBINSON W A,HOERLING M P.The modeled atmospheric response to midlatitude SSTanomalies and its dependence on background circulation states[J].J Climate,1997,10(5):971-987.
[35]陈烈庭.热带印度洋-太平洋海温纬向异常及其对亚洲夏季风的影响[J].大气科学,1988,12(增刊):142-148.
[36]吴国雄,刘平,刘屹岷,等.印度洋海温异常对西太平洋副热带高压的影响---大气中的两级热力适应[J].气象学报,2000,58(5):513-522.
[37]陈迪,高山红,陈锦年,等.赤道东太平洋和印度洋-南海暖池海温场的协同作用对西太平洋副热带高压的影响[J].海洋学报,2016,38(2):1-15.
[38]王妍凤,孙旭光,杨修群.积雪在El Ni1o影响东亚夏季气候异常中的作用[J].地球物理学报,2017,60(9):3325-3337.
[39]PAL J S,ELTAHIR E A B.A feedback mechanism between soil-moisture distribution and storm tracks[J].Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,2003,129(592):2279-2297.
[40]张莞昕,陈海山.陆面热力异常与东亚夏季中纬度气旋年代际变化的联系[J].气象科学,2017,37(4):458-465.
[2]于群.山东降水的多尺度性与地域特征研究[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2011.
[3]陈菊英.山东区域汛期旱涝预测概论[J].山东气象,2001,21(3):12-17.
[4]王庆,龚佃利,孙即霖,等.山东夏季旱涝指数的振荡特征[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2004,34(2):173-181.
[5]胡桂芳.山东夏季降水分布型及与全国雨型的关系[J].山东气象,2011,31(1):1-4.
[6]张庆云,陶诗言.亚洲中高纬度环流对东亚夏季降水的影响[J].气象学报,1998,56(2):199-211.
[7]徐桂玉,杨修群,孙旭光.华北降水年代际、年际变化特征与北半球大气环流的联系[J].地球物理学报,2005,48(3):511-518.
[8]郝立生,闵锦忠,顾光芹.华北夏季降水减少与北半球大气环流异常的关系[J].大气科学学报,2010,33(4):420-426.
[9]张寿荣,陈余明,胡永松,等.印缅槽和高原指数与春季降水的短期气候预测[J].贵州气象,2013,37(1):29-30,44.
[10]孙建奇,袁薇,高玉中.阿拉伯半岛-北太平洋型遥相关及其与亚洲夏季风的关系[J].中国科学D辑:地球科学,2008,38(6):750-762.
[11]王会军,范可,郎咸梅,等.我国短期气候预测的新理论、新方法和新技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2012.
[12]王庆.山东夏季降水与东亚夏季风以及大气环流异常的关系[D].青岛:中国海洋大学,2003.
[13]王庆,刘诗军.影响山东夏季降水的季风水汽输送特征分析[J].气象科学,2006,26(2):197-202.
[14]杨士恩,王启.山东夏季降水的气候特征及其成因[J].热带气象学报,2007,23(1):65-71.
[15]滕华超.山东省夏季降水与大气环流型关系分析[J].干旱气象,2016,34(5):789-795.
[16]杨晓霞,刘厚赞,刘梦玉,等.海温场与副热带高压及山东夏季降水关系分析[J].南京气象学院学报,1997,20(2):243-247.
[17]张苏平,朱平盛,胡桂芳.山东夏季降水与北太平洋SST和大气环流的关系[J].气象,1997,23(4):3-8.
[18]顾伟宗,张莉,王辉.气候变化背景下山东盛夏降水异常成因及预测研究[J].中国海洋大学学报(自然科学版),2012,42(12):8-13.
[19]孟祥新,王娜,商林.海温异常对山东夏季降水的影响分析[J].气象,2017,43(10):1259-1266.
[20]刘永平,张潇潇,薛峰.山东省夏季降水的年代际变化和年际变化[J].气象科技进展,2016,6(1):21-25.
[21]陈乾金,高波,李维京,等.青藏高原冬季积雪异常和长江中下游主汛期旱涝及其与环流关系的研究[J].气象学报,2000,58(5):582-595.
[22]马柱国,魏和林,符淙斌.中国东部区域土壤湿度的变化及其与气候变率的关系[J].气象学报,2000,58(3):278-287.
[23]马柱国,符淙斌,谢力,等.土壤湿度和气候变化关系研究中的某些问题[J].地球科学进展,2001,16(4):563-568.
[24]SHUKLA J,MINTZ Y.Influence of land-surface evapotranspiration on the Earth's climate[J].Science,1982,215(4539):1498-1501.
[25]ALFARO E J,GERSHUNOV A,CAYAN D.Prediction of summer maximum and minimum temperature over the central and western United States:The roles of soil moisture and sea surface temperature[J].J Climate,2006,19(8):1407-1421.
[26]郭飞燕,左卫强,郭飞龙,等.伴随IOD型和独立型ENSO对山东气候年际变化的影响[J].海洋气象学报,2017,37(4):34-48.
[27]郭飞燕,毕玮,郭飞龙,等.山东气候年际变化特征及其与ENSO的关系[J].海洋与湖沼,2017,48(3):465-474.
[28]顾伟宗,陈丽娟,左金清,等.多因子协同作用对1992年和1998年黄淮地区夏季降水异常的影响[J].大气科学,2016,40(4):743-755.
[29]徐康,祝从文,何金海.近50年环贝加尔湖区变暖对中国华北夏季降水的影响机理[J].高原气象,2011,30(2):309-317.
[30]赵平,周自江.东亚副热带夏季风指数及其与降水的关系[J].气象学报,2005,63(6):933-941.
[31]程乘,朱益民,丁黄兴,等.中国东部地区夏季降水和环流的年代际转型及其与PDO的联系[J].气象科学,2017,37(4):450-457.
[32]杨修群,朱益民,谢倩,等.太平洋年代际振荡的研究进展[J].大气科学,2004,28(6):979-992.
[33]NEWMAN M,ALEXANDER M A,AULT T R,et al.The pacific decadal oscillation,revisited[J].J Climate,2012,29(12):4399-4427.
[34]PENG S,ROBINSON W A,HOERLING M P.The modeled atmospheric response to midlatitude SSTanomalies and its dependence on background circulation states[J].J Climate,1997,10(5):971-987.
[35]陈烈庭.热带印度洋-太平洋海温纬向异常及其对亚洲夏季风的影响[J].大气科学,1988,12(增刊):142-148.
[36]吴国雄,刘平,刘屹岷,等.印度洋海温异常对西太平洋副热带高压的影响---大气中的两级热力适应[J].气象学报,2000,58(5):513-522.
[37]陈迪,高山红,陈锦年,等.赤道东太平洋和印度洋-南海暖池海温场的协同作用对西太平洋副热带高压的影响[J].海洋学报,2016,38(2):1-15.
[38]王妍凤,孙旭光,杨修群.积雪在El Ni1o影响东亚夏季气候异常中的作用[J].地球物理学报,2017,60(9):3325-3337.
[39]PAL J S,ELTAHIR E A B.A feedback mechanism between soil-moisture distribution and storm tracks[J].Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,2003,129(592):2279-2297.
[40]张莞昕,陈海山.陆面热力异常与东亚夏季中纬度气旋年代际变化的联系[J].气象科学,2017,37(4):458-465.