气候和人类活动对黄河源区径流量变化的贡献率研究
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摘要
根据1961-2015年黄河源区有关台站的观测数据,利用差积分法、累积距平法对黄河源区径流量和气候变化趋势进行了分析,并基于累计量斜率变化率分析方法评估气候和人类活动对黄河源区径流量减少的贡献率。结果表明:黄河源区年径流量、年降水量、年平均最大冻土深度呈减少趋势,源区蒸散量呈增大趋势;与基准时期1961-1989年相比,在不考虑气温影响的情况下,气候和人类活动对黄河源区径流量变化的贡献率在1990-2008年分别为33. 12%和66. 88%,在2009-2015年分别为73. 61%和26. 39%;两个时段相比,气候对径流量减少的贡献率上升,而人类活动的贡献率下降,这与气候变暖及2005年黄河源区启动的三江源自然保护区生态保护和建设工程有关。
In order to better understand the contribution rates of climate and human activities to the runoff yield in the source regions of Yellow River,using linear trend method,correlation analysis,stepwise regression method,differential integral method and cumulative distance method,the meteorological data and hydrologic data in the source regions of Yellow River from 1961 to 2015 had been analyzed. It was obtained that the mean flow has showed a decreasing trend in the recent 55 years in the source region of Yellow River,for example,the annual runoff has decreased by 24. 8 m~3·s~(-1)·( 10 a)~(-1). For climate reason,precipitation in main flow area has decreased by 7. 5 mm·( 10 a)~(-1) and in the major flood period it has decreased by 6. 8 mm·( 10 a)~(-1). Moreover,influenced by temperature rising,evaporation has increased with the rate of 4. 9 mm·( 10 a)~(-1). In addition,if the temperature effect can be ignored,assessing the influence of climate and human activities to runoff in the source regions of the river has found that: compared with the period from 1961 to 1989,the effect of climate and human activities accounted for 33. 12% and 66. 88% from 1990 to 2008; and for 73. 61% and 26. 39% from~2009 to 2015,respectively. Compared the two periods,the contribution rate of climate to the variation in runoff has risen to 73. 61% from 33. 12% in the period from 2009 to 2015 and play a leading role. However,the contribution rate of human activities to the variation in runoff decreased from 66. 88% to 26. 39% which is mainly attributed to the glacial ablation,permafrost degradation,surface water infiltration increasing and other effects of recent global warming. Meanwhile,the launching of the ecological protection and construction project of Sanjiangyuan national nature reserve have a significant positive impact.
In order to better understand the contribution rates of climate and human activities to the runoff yield in the source regions of Yellow River,using linear trend method,correlation analysis,stepwise regression method,differential integral method and cumulative distance method,the meteorological data and hydrologic data in the source regions of Yellow River from 1961 to 2015 had been analyzed. It was obtained that the mean flow has showed a decreasing trend in the recent 55 years in the source region of Yellow River,for example,the annual runoff has decreased by 24. 8 m~3·s~(-1)·( 10 a)~(-1). For climate reason,precipitation in main flow area has decreased by 7. 5 mm·( 10 a)~(-1) and in the major flood period it has decreased by 6. 8 mm·( 10 a)~(-1). Moreover,influenced by temperature rising,evaporation has increased with the rate of 4. 9 mm·( 10 a)~(-1). In addition,if the temperature effect can be ignored,assessing the influence of climate and human activities to runoff in the source regions of the river has found that: compared with the period from 1961 to 1989,the effect of climate and human activities accounted for 33. 12% and 66. 88% from 1990 to 2008; and for 73. 61% and 26. 39% from~2009 to 2015,respectively. Compared the two periods,the contribution rate of climate to the variation in runoff has risen to 73. 61% from 33. 12% in the period from 2009 to 2015 and play a leading role. However,the contribution rate of human activities to the variation in runoff decreased from 66. 88% to 26. 39% which is mainly attributed to the glacial ablation,permafrost degradation,surface water infiltration increasing and other effects of recent global warming. Meanwhile,the launching of the ecological protection and construction project of Sanjiangyuan national nature reserve have a significant positive impact.
引文
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[13] Wang Suiji,Li Ling,Yan Ming. The contributions of climate change and human activities to the runoff yield changes in the middle Yellow River Basin[J]. Geographical Research,2013,32(3):395-402.[王随继,李玲,颜明.气候和人类活动对黄河中游区间产流量变化的贡献率[J].地理研究,2013,32(3):395-402.]
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[15] Jing Hui,Xu Jianlong. Influence of human activities on the source region of Yellow River[R]. International Symposium on Ruraland Sustainable Development in West China,2005.[景晖,徐建龙.人类活动对黄河源头径流量变化影响探讨[R].中国西部农村经济与地区可持续发展国际研讨会暨中国西部开发研究联合体年会,2005.]
[16] Fu Guobin,Chen Shulin. Water crisis in the Yellow River:facts,reasons,impacts,and countermeasures[J]. Water Practice and Technology,2006,1(2):w pt2006028.
[17]Chang Guogang,Li Lin,Zhu Xide. et al. Changes and influencing factor s of sur face w ater resources in the source region of the Yellow River[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2007,62(3):312-320.[常国刚,李林,朱西德,等.黄河源区地表水资源变化及其影响因子[J].地理学报,2007,62(3):312-320.]
[18]Chen Jingsheng,He Dawei,Cui Shubin. The response of river w ater quality and quantity to the development of irrigated agriculture in the last 4 decades in the Yellow River basin,China[J].Water Resources Research,2003,39(3):1-11.
[19]Li Lin,Li Fengxia,Zhu Xide,et al. Quantitative identification of driving force on w etland shrinkage over the source region of the Yellow River[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2009,24(3):1246-1255.[李林,李凤霞,朱西德,等.黄河源区湿地萎缩驱动力的定量辨识[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(7):1246-1255.]
[20]Liu Changming,Xia Jun. Water problems and hydrological research in the Yellow River and the Huai and Hai River basins of China[J]. Hydrological Processes,2004,18(12):2197-2210.
[21]Allen R G,Pereira L S,Raes D,et al. Crop evapotranspirationGuidelines for computing crop w ater requirements-FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56[J]. FAO, Rome,1998,300(9):D05109.
[22]Yan Huiting,Wang Fei,He Yi. et al. Impact assessment of human actives on run off and sediment betw een paired years w ith similar w eather condition in the source of the Yellow River[J].Joumal of Sediment Research,2015(2):40-46.[燕慧婷,王飞,何毅,等.人类活动对黄河河源区水沙变化影响评价[J].泥沙研究,2015(2):40-46.]
[23] Zhao Liangping. Thoughts and countermeasures of forestry ecological construction in w estern region,China[C]//Symposium on Ecological Environment construction in Northw est China.Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House,2000:13-20.[赵良平.西部地区林业生态建设的思路与对策[C]//西北地区生态环境建设研讨会.北京:中国林业出版社,2000:13-20.]
[24]Shao Quanqin,Fan Jiangwen,Liu Jiyuan,et al. Target-based assessment on effects of first-stage ecological conservation and restoration project in Three-river Source Region,China and policy recommendations[J]. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2017,32(1):35-44.[邵全琴,樊江文,刘纪远,等.基于目标的三江源生态保护和建设一期工程生态成效评估及政策建议[J].中国科学院院刊,2017,32(1):35-44.]
[2] Lan Yongchao,Lu Chengyang,La Chengfang. et al. The fact of climate shift to w arm-humid in the source regions of the Yellow River and its hydrologic response[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2013,35(4):920-928.[蓝永超,鲁承阳,喇承芳,等.黄河源区气候向暖湿转变的观测事实及其水文响应[J].冰川冻土,2013,35(4):920-928.]
[3] Wang Suiji,Yan Yunxia,Yan Ming. et al. Contributions of precipitation and human activities to the runoff change of the Huangfuchuan drainage basin:application of comparative method of the slope changing ratio of cumulative quantity[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(3):388-397.[王随继,闫云霞,颜明,等.皇甫川流域降水和人类活动对径流量变化的贡献率分析——累积量斜率变化率比较方法的提出及应用[J].地理学报,2012,67(3):388-397.]
[4] Ran Lishan,Wang Suiji,Fan Xiaoli. Channel change at Toudaoguai Station and its responses to the operation of upstream reservoirs in the upper Yellow River[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences,2010,20(2):231-247.
[5] Li Lin,Li Fengxia,Zhu Xide. et al. Study on the evolution law of the extreme climatic events over the Source Region of the Three Rivers[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2007,22(7):656-663.[李林,李凤霞,朱西德,等.三江源地区极端气候事件演变事实及其成因探究[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(4):656-663.]
[6] Li Lin,Wang Qingchun,Zhang Guosheng,et al. The influence of climate change on surface w ater in the upper Yellow River[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2004,59(5):716-722.[李林,汪青春,张国胜,等.黄河上游气候变化对地表水的影响[J].地理学报,2004,59(5):716-722.]
[7] Hao Zhenchun,Wang Jiahu,Li Li. et al. Impact of climate change on runoff in source region of Yellow River[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2006,28(1):1-7.[郝振纯,王加虎,李丽,等.气候变化对黄河源区水资源的影响[J].冰川冻土,2006,28(1):1-7.]
[8] Zhang Senqi,Wang Yonggui,Zhao Yongzhen. et al. Permafrost degradation and its environmental sequent in the source regions of the Yellow River[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2004,26(1):1-6.[张森琦,王永贵,赵永真,等.黄河源区多年冻土退化及其环境反映[J].冰川冻土,2004,26(1):1-6.]
[9] Chang Gguogang,Li Lin,Zhu Xide. et al. Changes and influencing factors of surface w ater resources in the source region Yellow River[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica. 2007,62(3):312-320.[常国刚,李林,朱西德,等.黄河源区地表水资源变化及其影响因子[J].地理学报,2007,62(3):312-320.]
[10]Li Lin,Shen Hongyan,Dai Sheng. et al. Response of runoff to climate change and its future tendency in the source region of Yellow River[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(9):1261-1269.[李林,申红艳,戴升,等.黄河源区径流对气候变化的响应及未来趋势预测[J].地理学报,2011,66(9):1261-1269.]
[11] Ye Xuchun,Zhang Qi,Liu Jian. et al. Impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff of Poyang Lake catchment[J]. Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology. 2009,31(5):835-842.[叶许春,张奇,刘健,等.气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域径流变化的影响研究[J].冰川冻土,2009(5):835-842.]
[12]He Xuqiang,Zhang Bo,Sun Liwei. et al. Contribution rates of climate change and human activity on the runoff in upper and middle reaches of Heihe River basin[J]. Chinese Journal of Ecology,2012,31(11):2884-2890.[何旭强,张勃,孙力炜,等.气候变化和人类活动对黑河上中游径流量变化的贡献率[J].生态学杂志,2012,31(11):2884-2890.]
[13] Wang Suiji,Li Ling,Yan Ming. The contributions of climate change and human activities to the runoff yield changes in the middle Yellow River Basin[J]. Geographical Research,2013,32(3):395-402.[王随继,李玲,颜明.气候和人类活动对黄河中游区间产流量变化的贡献率[J].地理研究,2013,32(3):395-402.]
[14]Zhang Tiaofeng,Zhu Xide,Wang Yongjian. et al. The impact of climate variability and human activity on runoff changes in the Huangshui River basin[J]. Resources Science,2014,36(11):2255-2261.[张调风,朱西德,王永剑,等.气候变化和人类活动对湟水河流域径流量影响的定量评估[J].资源科学,2014(11):2256-2262.]
[15] Jing Hui,Xu Jianlong. Influence of human activities on the source region of Yellow River[R]. International Symposium on Ruraland Sustainable Development in West China,2005.[景晖,徐建龙.人类活动对黄河源头径流量变化影响探讨[R].中国西部农村经济与地区可持续发展国际研讨会暨中国西部开发研究联合体年会,2005.]
[16] Fu Guobin,Chen Shulin. Water crisis in the Yellow River:facts,reasons,impacts,and countermeasures[J]. Water Practice and Technology,2006,1(2):w pt2006028.
[17]Chang Guogang,Li Lin,Zhu Xide. et al. Changes and influencing factor s of sur face w ater resources in the source region of the Yellow River[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica,2007,62(3):312-320.[常国刚,李林,朱西德,等.黄河源区地表水资源变化及其影响因子[J].地理学报,2007,62(3):312-320.]
[18]Chen Jingsheng,He Dawei,Cui Shubin. The response of river w ater quality and quantity to the development of irrigated agriculture in the last 4 decades in the Yellow River basin,China[J].Water Resources Research,2003,39(3):1-11.
[19]Li Lin,Li Fengxia,Zhu Xide,et al. Quantitative identification of driving force on w etland shrinkage over the source region of the Yellow River[J]. Journal of Natural Resources,2009,24(3):1246-1255.[李林,李凤霞,朱西德,等.黄河源区湿地萎缩驱动力的定量辨识[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(7):1246-1255.]
[20]Liu Changming,Xia Jun. Water problems and hydrological research in the Yellow River and the Huai and Hai River basins of China[J]. Hydrological Processes,2004,18(12):2197-2210.
[21]Allen R G,Pereira L S,Raes D,et al. Crop evapotranspirationGuidelines for computing crop w ater requirements-FAO Irrigation and drainage paper 56[J]. FAO, Rome,1998,300(9):D05109.
[22]Yan Huiting,Wang Fei,He Yi. et al. Impact assessment of human actives on run off and sediment betw een paired years w ith similar w eather condition in the source of the Yellow River[J].Joumal of Sediment Research,2015(2):40-46.[燕慧婷,王飞,何毅,等.人类活动对黄河河源区水沙变化影响评价[J].泥沙研究,2015(2):40-46.]
[23] Zhao Liangping. Thoughts and countermeasures of forestry ecological construction in w estern region,China[C]//Symposium on Ecological Environment construction in Northw est China.Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House,2000:13-20.[赵良平.西部地区林业生态建设的思路与对策[C]//西北地区生态环境建设研讨会.北京:中国林业出版社,2000:13-20.]
[24]Shao Quanqin,Fan Jiangwen,Liu Jiyuan,et al. Target-based assessment on effects of first-stage ecological conservation and restoration project in Three-river Source Region,China and policy recommendations[J]. Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2017,32(1):35-44.[邵全琴,樊江文,刘纪远,等.基于目标的三江源生态保护和建设一期工程生态成效评估及政策建议[J].中国科学院院刊,2017,32(1):35-44.]