基于分布式水文模型的“尼伯特”台风暴雨洪水反演
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摘要
台风暴雨具有强度大、降雨集中的特点,容易在沿海地区中小流域形成局地破坏性洪水灾害,基于高精度地形地貌数据构建分布式水文模型,是实现中小流域洪水模拟和预报的重要手段。以福建闽清县梅溪流域为研究区,基于高精度DEM、土壤和土地利用数据,采用中国山洪水文模型(CNFF-HM),构建了梅溪流域分布式水文模型,以56场实测水文气象资料对模型进行率定和验证,并对2016年7月9日发生的"尼伯特"台风带来的暴雨洪水进行反演。结果显示,构建的分布式水文模型验证和率定效果良好,对"尼伯特"台风暴雨洪水模拟的洪峰流量误差小于20%,确定性系数达到0.96,因此模型能够很好地反映流域短历时强降雨引发的洪水特征,为流域防洪减灾提供可靠的技术支撑。
The typhoon storm has the characteristics of high intensity and concentrated rainfall.It is easy to form local destructive flood disasters in the middle and small-sized watersheds of coastal areas.The distributed hydrological model based on highresolution topographic and geomorphic data is an effective way to forecast flood in small and medium-sized basins.The Meixi River Basin in Minqing County of Fujian Province was selected as out study region.The China Flash Flood Model(CNFFHM),based on the high-resolution DEM,soil data,and land use data,was used to build the distributed hydrological model of the Meixi Basin.Fifty-six hydrological events were used to calibrate and validate the model.The flood caused by the'Niebert'typhoon,which occurred on 9 July 2016,was simulated.The result showed the model performance was good with a less than 20%error for flood peak flow,and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE)of 0.96.Thus the model can reflect the flood characteristics caused by short-term heavy rainfall in the basin,and provide reliable technical support for disaster prevention and reduction in the basin.
The typhoon storm has the characteristics of high intensity and concentrated rainfall.It is easy to form local destructive flood disasters in the middle and small-sized watersheds of coastal areas.The distributed hydrological model based on highresolution topographic and geomorphic data is an effective way to forecast flood in small and medium-sized basins.The Meixi River Basin in Minqing County of Fujian Province was selected as out study region.The China Flash Flood Model(CNFFHM),based on the high-resolution DEM,soil data,and land use data,was used to build the distributed hydrological model of the Meixi Basin.Fifty-six hydrological events were used to calibrate and validate the model.The flood caused by the'Niebert'typhoon,which occurred on 9 July 2016,was simulated.The result showed the model performance was good with a less than 20%error for flood peak flow,and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient(NSE)of 0.96.Thus the model can reflect the flood characteristics caused by short-term heavy rainfall in the basin,and provide reliable technical support for disaster prevention and reduction in the basin.
引文
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[23] GB/T 22484-2008,水文情报预报规范[S].(GB/T22484-2008,Standard for hydrological information and hydrological forcasting[S].(in Chinese))
[2]喇承芳,仇杰,刘晓帆,等.分布式水文模型在大通河流域的应用研究[J].人民黄河,2016,38(11):9-12.(LA C F,QIU J,LIU X F,et al.Study on distributed hydrological model in the Datong River Basin[J].Yellow River,2016,38(11):9-12.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2016.11.003.
[3] YAO C,ZHANG K,YU Z,et al.Improving the flood prediction capability of the Xinanjiang model in ungauged nested catchments by coupling it with the geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph[J].Journal of Hydrology,2014,517(2):1035-1048.DOI:org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.06.037.
[4]包红军,王莉莉,李致家,等.基于Holtan产流的分布式水文模型[J].河海大学学报:自然科学版,2016,44(4):340-346(BAO H J,WANG L L,LI Z J,et al.A distributed hydrological based on Holtan runoff generation theory[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2016,44(4):340-346.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3876/j.issn.1000-1980.2016.04.010.
[5]郭生练,熊立华,杨井,等.基于DEM的分布式流域水文物理模型[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2000,33(6):1-5.(GUO S L,XIONG L H,YANG J,et al.A DEM and physically based hydrological model[J].Engineering Journal of Wuhan University,2000,33(6):1-5.(in Chinese))
[6]郭俊.流域水文建模及预报方法研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2013.(GUO J.Studies on Watershed hydrological modelingand forecasting[D].Wuhan:Huazhong University of Science and Technology,2013.(in Chinese))DOI:10.7666/d.D409170.
[7] ARNOLD J G,SRINIVASAN R,MUTTIAH R,et al.Large area hydrologic modeling and assessment:Part I.model development[J].Journal of American Water Resources Assessment,1998,34(1):73-89.
[8]赵人俊.流域水文模拟——新安江模型与陕北模型[M].北京:水利水电出版社,1984(ZHAO R J.Watershed hydrological simulation—Xin′an River ThreeSource model and Northern Shanxi model[M].Beijing:Water Power Press,1984.(in Chinese))
[9]王佩兰,赵人俊.新安江模型(三水源)参数的检验[J].河海大学学报,1989,17(4):19-23.(WANG P L,ZHAO R J.Examination of parameters of Xinanjiang model(3components)[J].Journal of Hohai University,1989,17(4):19-23.(in Chinese))
[10]刘金涛,宋慧卿,张行南,等.新安江模型理论研究的进展与探讨[J].水文,2014,34(1):1-6.(LIU J T,SONG H Q,ZHANG X N,et al.A discussion on advances in theories of Xinanjiang Model[J].Hydrology,2014,34(1):1-6.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0852.2014.01.001.
[11]包红军,王莉莉,李致家,等.基于混合产流与二维运动波汇流分布式水文模型[J].水电能源科学,2016,34(11):1-4.(BAO H J,WANG L L,LI Z J,et al.Grid-based distributed hydrological model with mixed runoff model and two-dimensional kinematic wave flow model[J].International Journal Hydroelectric Energy,2016,34(11):1-4.(in Chinese))
[12]王磊,王忠静,尹航,等.GBHM模型原理及其在中尺度流域的应用[J].冰川冻土,2006,28(2):256-261.(WANG L,WANG Z J,YIN H,et al.A distributed hydrological model-GBHNM and its application in middle-scale catchment[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2006,28(2):256-261.(in Chinese))
[13]伍永年,马啸,邱萍蔚.台风“尼伯特”给福建省造成的灾害成因分析[J].中国防汛抗旱,2017,27(1):88-91.(WU Y N,MA X,QIU P W.Causes of flood disaster for typhoon Nepartak in Fujian Province,2016[J].China Flood&Drought Management,2017,27(1):88-91.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-9264.2017.01.021.
[14] Hellweger R.Agree-DEM surface reconditioning system[EB/OL].http://www.ce.utexas.edu/prof/maid/ment/gishydro/ferdi/research/agree/agree.html,1997.
[15]张维,杨昕,汤国安,等.基于DEM的平缓地区水系提取和流域分割的流向算法分析[J].测绘科学,2012,37(2):94-96.(ZHANG W,YANG X,TANG G A,et al.DEM-based flow direction algorithms study of stream extraction and watershed delineation in the low relief areas[J].Science of Surveying and Mapping,2012,37(2):94-96.(in Chinese))
[16] O′CALLAGHAN J F,MARK D M.The extraction of drainage networks from digital elevation data[J].Computer vision,graphics,and image processing,1984,27(3):323-344.DOI:org/10.1016/S0734-189X(84)80011-0.
[17]芮孝芳,宫兴龙,张超,等.流域产流分析及计算[J].水力发电学报,2009,28(6):146-150.(RUI X F,GONG X L,ZHANG C,et al.Formation and calculation of watershed runoff yield[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2009,28(6):146-150.(in Chinese))
[18]芮孝芳.产流模式的发现与发展[J].水利水电科技进展,2013,33(1):1-6.(RUI X F.Discovery and development of the flow pattern[J].Advances in science and technology of water resources,2013,33(1):1-6.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1006-7647.2013.01.001.
[19]许波刘,董增川,洪娴.集总式喀斯特水文模型构建及其应用[J].水资源保护,2017,33(2):37-42.(XU B L,DONG Z C,HONG X.Lumped karst hydrological model and its application[J].Water Resources Protection,2017,33(2):37-42.(in Chinese))DOI:10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2017.02.007.
[20]魏兆珍.海河流域下垫面要素变化及其对洪水的影响研究[D].天津:天津大学,2013.(WEI Z Z.Study on the underlying surface change of Haihe River Basin and its impacts on flood[D].Tianjin:Tianjin University,2013.(in Chinese))
[21] WANG Y L,LIU R H,GUO L,et al.Forecasting and providing warnings of flash floods for ungauged mountainous areas based on a distributed hydrological model[J].Water,2017,9(10):776.DOI:org/10.3390/w9100776.
[22]郭良,丁留谦,孙东亚,等.中国山洪灾害防御关键技术[J].水利学报.2018,49(9):1-13.(GUO L,DING L Q,SUN D Y,et al.Key techniques of flash flood disaster prevention in China[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering.2018,49(9):1-13(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20180728.
[23] GB/T 22484-2008,水文情报预报规范[S].(GB/T22484-2008,Standard for hydrological information and hydrological forcasting[S].(in Chinese))