汶川地震地质灾害易发性分析
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摘要
本文以汶川为例,基于GIS的空间分析和图解建模方式分别构建了两个空间统计模型,分析了地质环境因子的影响作用,并对灾区进行了评估与区划。结果表明:高程与地形起伏对地质灾害影响较大;信息量模型操作简单,易于快速评估,预测精度较低;逻辑回归模型预测精度较高,计算过程较为复杂;地质灾害极高敏感区位于岷江两侧,地形切割强烈、构造发育,形成了大量的地质灾害。
This paper taking Wenchuan as an example,used spatial analysis and graphic modeling methods of GIS to build two spatial statistical models,in order to find the affect of the condition factors and to evaluate the susceptibility area. The result indicated that height and relief caused more effect on the disasters; the information model is simple with rapid evaluation and low accuracy; while the logistic regression model has high accuracy but more complicated. The evaluated zone showed that the most susceptibility level covers 8. 9% of the area with high relief caused by the river and lithology structural development,which makes a large number of geological disasters.
This paper taking Wenchuan as an example,used spatial analysis and graphic modeling methods of GIS to build two spatial statistical models,in order to find the affect of the condition factors and to evaluate the susceptibility area. The result indicated that height and relief caused more effect on the disasters; the information model is simple with rapid evaluation and low accuracy; while the logistic regression model has high accuracy but more complicated. The evaluated zone showed that the most susceptibility level covers 8. 9% of the area with high relief caused by the river and lithology structural development,which makes a large number of geological disasters.
引文
[1]黄润秋,李为乐.“5.12”汶川大地震触发地质灾害的发育分布规律研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报.2008,27(12):2585-2592.
[2]Castellanos Abella E A.Multi-scale landslide risk assessment in Cuba[D].Amsterdam:International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation,Enschede,The Netherlands(ITC),2008.
[3]韩金良,吴树仁,何淑军,等.5.12汶川8级地震次生地质灾害的基本特征及其形成机制浅析[J].地学前缘,2009,16(3):306-326.
[4]赵纪生,魏景芝.汶川8.0级地震滑坡,崩塌机制[J].2008,3(4):379-383.
[5]童立强,祁生文,刘春玲.喜马拉雅山东南地区地质灾害发育规律初步研究[J].工程地质学报,2007,6(6).
[6]魏从玲.基于GIS的巫山县滑坡地质灾害危险性评价[D].成都:西南大学,2008.
[7]Burbank D W.Characteristic size of relief[J].Nature,1992,359(6395):483-484.
[8]郎玲玲,程维明,朱启疆,等.多尺度DEM提取地势起伏度的对比分析——以福建低山丘陵区为例[J].地球信息科学,2007,9(6):1-6.
[9]刘岁海,刘爱平.四川省康定县滑坡灾害发育特征与形成条件[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2006,17(3):27-31.
[10]熊德清.四川省理县5.12汶川地震诱发地质灾害应急排查与危险性评价[D].成都:成都理工大学,2009.
[11]李勇,黄润秋,等.龙门山地震带的地质背景与汶川地震的地表破裂[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(1).
[12]唐辉明,李德威,胡新丽.龙山门断裂带活动特征与工程区域地壳稳定性评价理论[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(2):145-152.
[13]石菊松,张永双,董诚,等.基于GIS技术的巴东新城区滑坡灾害危险性区划[J].地球学报,2005,26(3).
[14]朱良峰,吴信才,殷坤龙,等.基于信息量模型的中国滑坡灾害风险区划研究[J].地球科学与环境学报,2004,26(3):52-56.
[15]赵彬.基于GIS的汶川地震地质灾害危险性评价研究[D].北京:首都师范大学,2011.
[2]Castellanos Abella E A.Multi-scale landslide risk assessment in Cuba[D].Amsterdam:International Institute for Geo-information Science and Earth Observation,Enschede,The Netherlands(ITC),2008.
[3]韩金良,吴树仁,何淑军,等.5.12汶川8级地震次生地质灾害的基本特征及其形成机制浅析[J].地学前缘,2009,16(3):306-326.
[4]赵纪生,魏景芝.汶川8.0级地震滑坡,崩塌机制[J].2008,3(4):379-383.
[5]童立强,祁生文,刘春玲.喜马拉雅山东南地区地质灾害发育规律初步研究[J].工程地质学报,2007,6(6).
[6]魏从玲.基于GIS的巫山县滑坡地质灾害危险性评价[D].成都:西南大学,2008.
[7]Burbank D W.Characteristic size of relief[J].Nature,1992,359(6395):483-484.
[8]郎玲玲,程维明,朱启疆,等.多尺度DEM提取地势起伏度的对比分析——以福建低山丘陵区为例[J].地球信息科学,2007,9(6):1-6.
[9]刘岁海,刘爱平.四川省康定县滑坡灾害发育特征与形成条件[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2006,17(3):27-31.
[10]熊德清.四川省理县5.12汶川地震诱发地质灾害应急排查与危险性评价[D].成都:成都理工大学,2009.
[11]李勇,黄润秋,等.龙门山地震带的地质背景与汶川地震的地表破裂[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(1).
[12]唐辉明,李德威,胡新丽.龙山门断裂带活动特征与工程区域地壳稳定性评价理论[J].工程地质学报,2009,17(2):145-152.
[13]石菊松,张永双,董诚,等.基于GIS技术的巴东新城区滑坡灾害危险性区划[J].地球学报,2005,26(3).
[14]朱良峰,吴信才,殷坤龙,等.基于信息量模型的中国滑坡灾害风险区划研究[J].地球科学与环境学报,2004,26(3):52-56.
[15]赵彬.基于GIS的汶川地震地质灾害危险性评价研究[D].北京:首都师范大学,2011.