云贵地区气象旱涝的气候响应特征
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摘要
根据1960~2014年云贵地区49个站点的逐月降水量和气温资料,利用标准化降水指数、Mann-Kendall突变检验及小波分析等方法研究了季尺度和年尺度的气温和降水量的变化特征及旱涝演变趋势.结果表明:(1)1960~2014年云贵地区气温呈明显上升趋势,且上升速率冬季>秋季>春季>夏季,1997年出现了气温突变现象.(2)降水量呈下降趋势,其中,秋季降水量下降最快,冬季最慢,且降水呈现14a和28a的周期变化.(3)1960~2014年云贵地区呈现偏旱的趋势,且夏秋两季干旱趋势较为明显.(4)从空间尺度分析,云贵地区整体上趋于干旱(SPI倾向率小于0),在云南与贵州交界处,偏旱现象较为严重,仅在云南省北部出现偏湿现象.因此近55a云贵地区气候呈暖干化趋势.
According to the monthly precipitation and temperature data of 49 sites in Yun-Gui area from 1960 to2014,this paper uses standardized precipitation index,Mann-Kendall mutation test and wavelet analysis method to study the changes in seasonal scale and the year scale of temperature and precipitation characteristics,as well as the drought evolution trend.The results show that:(1)The temperature gradually increased from 1960 to 2014.The temperature rise rate of winter was the largest.The abrupt change of average annual temperature occurred in 1997.(2)The precipitation was decreasing;The fastest decline in autumn,and the slowest in winter;The precipitation presents 14 aand 28 a cycle.(3)Yun-Gui area presented a droughty trend from 1960 to 2014.The summer and autumn drought appeared as an obvious trend.(4)The climate of Yun-Gui area was becoming drought(SPI trend rate was less than 0),and is more seriously at the junction of Yunnan and Guizhou province,while,only the Northern Yunnan rigion becomes wetting.So the climate of Yun-Gui area was becoming warmer and drier in recent 55 years.
According to the monthly precipitation and temperature data of 49 sites in Yun-Gui area from 1960 to2014,this paper uses standardized precipitation index,Mann-Kendall mutation test and wavelet analysis method to study the changes in seasonal scale and the year scale of temperature and precipitation characteristics,as well as the drought evolution trend.The results show that:(1)The temperature gradually increased from 1960 to 2014.The temperature rise rate of winter was the largest.The abrupt change of average annual temperature occurred in 1997.(2)The precipitation was decreasing;The fastest decline in autumn,and the slowest in winter;The precipitation presents 14 aand 28 a cycle.(3)Yun-Gui area presented a droughty trend from 1960 to 2014.The summer and autumn drought appeared as an obvious trend.(4)The climate of Yun-Gui area was becoming drought(SPI trend rate was less than 0),and is more seriously at the junction of Yunnan and Guizhou province,while,only the Northern Yunnan rigion becomes wetting.So the climate of Yun-Gui area was becoming warmer and drier in recent 55 years.
引文
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[13]李双双,延军平,杨蓉,等.气候变暖背景下1961~2010年宁夏旱涝灾害空间分布特征和变化规律[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(5):1552-1559.LI S S,YAN J P,YANG R,et al.Spatial-temporal characteristics of drought and flood disasters under the background of global warming in Ningxia from1961to 2010[J].Journal of Desert Research,2013,33(5):1552-1559.
[14]王莺,李耀辉,胡田田.基于SPI指数的甘肃省河东地区干旱时空特征分析[J].中国沙漠,2014,34(1):244-253.WANG Y,LI Y H,HU T T.Analysis on spatial and temporal patterns of drought based on standardized precipitation index in the Hedong Area in Gansu Province[J].Journal of Desert Research,2014,34(1):244-253.
[15]金成浩,韩京龙.基于Mann-Kendall检验的嘎呀河流域降水变化趋势及突变分析[J].吉林水利,2013(12):62-66.JIN C H,HAN J L.Analysis of precipitation variation trend and abrupt change in Gaya River Basin based on Mann-Kendall test[J].Jilin Water Resources,2013(12):62-66.
[16]徐宗学,张楠.黄河流域近50a降水变化趋势分析[J].地理研究,2006,25(1):27-34.XU Z X,ZHANG N.Long term trend of precipitation in the Yellow River basin during the past 50years[J].Geographical Research,2006,25(1):27-34.
[17]MANN,MICHAEL E.Smoothing of climate time series revisited[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35(16):134-143.
[18]高炬,王繁强,黄祖英.小波分析在陕西省旱涝气候预测中的应用[J].陕西气象,2006(6):11-14.GAO J,WANG F Q,HUANG Z Y.Wavelet analysis applied in drought and flood in Shannxi Province[J].Journal of Shaanxi Meteorology,2006(6):11-14.
[19]陈莹,陈兴伟.福建省近50a旱涝时空特征演变——基于标准化降水指数分析[J].自然灾害学报,2011,(3):57-63.CHEN Y,CHEN X W.Evolution of spatiotemporal characteristics of flood and drought in Fujian Province for recent 50 years:An SPI-based analysis[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2011,20(3):57-63.
[20]车少静,李春强,申双和.基于SPI的近41a(1965-2005)河北省旱涝时空特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):137-143.CHE S J,LI C Q,SHEN S M.Analysis of droughtflood spatial-temporal characteristics based on standard precipitation index(SPI)in Heibei Province during 1965to 2005[J].Chinese Journal of Agro Meteorology,2010,31(1):137-143.
[21]郑建萌,张万诚,万云霞,等.云南极端干旱年春季异常环流形势的对比分析[J].高原气象,2013,32(6):1665-1672.ZHENG J M,ZHANG W C,WAN Y X,et al.Comparative analysis on abnormal circulation in spring in extreme drought year of Yunnan[J].Plateau Meteorology,2013,32(6):1665-1672.
[22]叶柏松,赵成义,姜逢清,等.近300a来塔里木河流域旱涝灾害特征分析[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(1):173-182.YE B S,ZHAO C Y,JIANG F Q,et al.Characteristics of the flood and drought disasters in the Tarim River basin in recent 300years[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2014,36(1):173-182.
[23]杜华明,贺胜英.岷江流域降水特征与旱涝灾害趋势分析[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(01):153-157.DU H M,HE S Y.The analysis on characteristics of precipitation and trends in drought and flood disasters in Minjiang River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(01):153-157.
[2]胡宜昌,董文杰,何勇.21世纪初极端天气气候事件研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2007(10):1066-1075.HU Y C,DONG W J,HE Y.Progress of the study of extreme weather and climate events at the beginning of the twenty first century[J].Advances in Earth Science,2007(10):1066-1075.
[3]杨晓静,左德鹏,徐宗学.基于标准化降水指数的云南省近55a旱涝演变特征[J].资源科学,2014,36(3):473-480.YANG X J,ZUO D P,XU Z X.Characteristics of droughts and floods analyzed using the standardized precipitation index in Yunnan Province during the past55years[J].Resources Science,2014,36(3):473-480.
[4]余游.云南经济增长与金融发展的关系[J].云南社会科学,2012(3):106-109.YU Y.The relationship between economic growth and financial development in Yunnan[J].Social Sciences in Yunnan,2012(3):106-109.
[5]BUSBY J W,SMITH T G,KRISHNAN N.Climate security vulnerability in Africa mapping 3.01[J].Political Geography,2014,43:51-67.
[6]方兰.云贵地区旱涝变化时空结构及趋势判断[D].西安:陕西师范大学,2013.FANG L.Yunnan-Guizhou Region Changes in Time and Space Structure and the Trend of Flood and Judgment[D].Xian:Shaanxi Normal University,2013.
[7]苗春生,赵文宁,王坚红,等.近53a云南东部春季旱涝及其环流距平波列影响[J].干旱区研究,2014,31(2):250-260.MIAO C S,ZHAO W N,WANG J H,et al.Influences of drought,flood and zonal circulation anomaly over East Yunnan Province in spring in recent 53years[J].Arid Zone Research,2014,31(2):250-260.
[8]刘琳,徐宗学.西南地区旱涝特征及其趋势预测[J].自然资源报,2014(10):1792-1801.LIU L,XU Z X.Drought flood characteristics and trend prediction in Southwest China[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2014(10):1792-1801.
[9]杜华明,延军平.近51a川滇地区气候暖干化与旱涝灾害趋势判断[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(5):714-721.DU H M,YAN J P.Climate warming-drying and drought-flood tendency judgment of Sichuan-Yunnan region in recent 51years[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2014,23(5):714-721.
[10]彭贵芬,刘瑜,张一平.云南干旱的气候特征及变化趋势研究[J].灾害学,2010,24(4):40-44.PENG G F,LIU Y,ZHANG Y P.Research on characteristics of drought and climatic trend in Yunnan Province[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2010,24(4):40-44.
[11]孙智辉,王治亮,曹雪梅,等.基于标准化降水指数的陕西黄土高原地区1971~2010年干旱变化特征[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(5):1560-1567.SUN Z H,WANG Z L,CAO X M,et al.Characteristics of drought change in the loess plateau area of Shannxi based on the standardized precipitation index during 1971to 2010[J].Journal of Desert Research,2013,33(5):1560-1567.
[12]袁云,李栋梁,安迪.基于标准化降水指数的中国冬季干旱分区及气候特征[J].中国沙漠,2010,30(4):917-925.YUAN Y,LI D L,AN D.Winter aridity division in China based on standardized precipitation index and circulation characteristics[J].Journal of Desert Research,2010,30(4):917-925.
[13]李双双,延军平,杨蓉,等.气候变暖背景下1961~2010年宁夏旱涝灾害空间分布特征和变化规律[J].中国沙漠,2013,33(5):1552-1559.LI S S,YAN J P,YANG R,et al.Spatial-temporal characteristics of drought and flood disasters under the background of global warming in Ningxia from1961to 2010[J].Journal of Desert Research,2013,33(5):1552-1559.
[14]王莺,李耀辉,胡田田.基于SPI指数的甘肃省河东地区干旱时空特征分析[J].中国沙漠,2014,34(1):244-253.WANG Y,LI Y H,HU T T.Analysis on spatial and temporal patterns of drought based on standardized precipitation index in the Hedong Area in Gansu Province[J].Journal of Desert Research,2014,34(1):244-253.
[15]金成浩,韩京龙.基于Mann-Kendall检验的嘎呀河流域降水变化趋势及突变分析[J].吉林水利,2013(12):62-66.JIN C H,HAN J L.Analysis of precipitation variation trend and abrupt change in Gaya River Basin based on Mann-Kendall test[J].Jilin Water Resources,2013(12):62-66.
[16]徐宗学,张楠.黄河流域近50a降水变化趋势分析[J].地理研究,2006,25(1):27-34.XU Z X,ZHANG N.Long term trend of precipitation in the Yellow River basin during the past 50years[J].Geographical Research,2006,25(1):27-34.
[17]MANN,MICHAEL E.Smoothing of climate time series revisited[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2008,35(16):134-143.
[18]高炬,王繁强,黄祖英.小波分析在陕西省旱涝气候预测中的应用[J].陕西气象,2006(6):11-14.GAO J,WANG F Q,HUANG Z Y.Wavelet analysis applied in drought and flood in Shannxi Province[J].Journal of Shaanxi Meteorology,2006(6):11-14.
[19]陈莹,陈兴伟.福建省近50a旱涝时空特征演变——基于标准化降水指数分析[J].自然灾害学报,2011,(3):57-63.CHEN Y,CHEN X W.Evolution of spatiotemporal characteristics of flood and drought in Fujian Province for recent 50 years:An SPI-based analysis[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2011,20(3):57-63.
[20]车少静,李春强,申双和.基于SPI的近41a(1965-2005)河北省旱涝时空特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2010,31(1):137-143.CHE S J,LI C Q,SHEN S M.Analysis of droughtflood spatial-temporal characteristics based on standard precipitation index(SPI)in Heibei Province during 1965to 2005[J].Chinese Journal of Agro Meteorology,2010,31(1):137-143.
[21]郑建萌,张万诚,万云霞,等.云南极端干旱年春季异常环流形势的对比分析[J].高原气象,2013,32(6):1665-1672.ZHENG J M,ZHANG W C,WAN Y X,et al.Comparative analysis on abnormal circulation in spring in extreme drought year of Yunnan[J].Plateau Meteorology,2013,32(6):1665-1672.
[22]叶柏松,赵成义,姜逢清,等.近300a来塔里木河流域旱涝灾害特征分析[J].冰川冻土,2014,36(1):173-182.YE B S,ZHAO C Y,JIANG F Q,et al.Characteristics of the flood and drought disasters in the Tarim River basin in recent 300years[J].Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology,2014,36(1):173-182.
[23]杜华明,贺胜英.岷江流域降水特征与旱涝灾害趋势分析[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(01):153-157.DU H M,HE S Y.The analysis on characteristics of precipitation and trends in drought and flood disasters in Minjiang River Basin[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2015,22(01):153-157.