中国主要优势农产品出口分析及展望
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摘要
基于RCA指数和TSC指数在国际贸易优势农产品识别上的不足,提出RSCA&TSC四象限分析法,利用HS2012标准数据对2016年中国主要优势农产品进行了识别和分析。研究发现中国前三类优势农产品分别是蚕丝、肉及水生动物制品、蔬菜水果,其中,蚕丝的RCA值为15.14,TSC值为0.94,创汇约3.41亿美元;肉及水生动物制品的RCA值为3.58,TSC值为0.95,创汇约32.96亿美元;蔬菜水果的RCA值为3.39,TSC值为0.54,出口创汇约150.93亿美元。总体上看,中国优势农产品具有机械替代程度低、劳动密集程度较高等特征。目前中国部分优势农产品的比较优势呈下降趋势,为提高中国主要优势农产品的国际贸易优势,可从加大发展适宜中国自然环境的特色农产品、提高农业机械化水平、加大农产品深加工技术研发等方面着力。
Since the RCA index and TSC index are imperfect to analyze the comparative advantage of the commodities among international trade, we proposed the RSCA&TSC four quadrant method to identify the main advantageous agricultural products of China in 2016 by HS2012 standard. We found that top three dominant agricultural products of China were silk, meat and aquatic animal products, fruits and vegetables.Specifically, for silk, the RCA and TSC value of were 15.14 and 0.94, and the earnings in hard currency through export was about 0. 341 billion dollars; for meat and aquatic animal products, the RCA and TSC value were 3.58 and 0.95, and the earnings in hard currency through export was about 3.296 billion dollars; and for fruits and vegetables, the RCA and TSC value were 3.39 and 0.54, and the earnings in hard currency through export was about 15.093 billion dollars. In general, China's dominant advantageous agricultural products were low in mechanical substitution and high in labor-intensive degree. However, the comparative advantage of some dominant agricultural products in China is declining, in order to improve the international trade advantage of China's dominant agricultural products, we should adequately bring the natural environment factors into play,develop and popularize the agricultural mechanization, accelerate the research and development of processing technology of agricultural products.
Since the RCA index and TSC index are imperfect to analyze the comparative advantage of the commodities among international trade, we proposed the RSCA&TSC four quadrant method to identify the main advantageous agricultural products of China in 2016 by HS2012 standard. We found that top three dominant agricultural products of China were silk, meat and aquatic animal products, fruits and vegetables.Specifically, for silk, the RCA and TSC value of were 15.14 and 0.94, and the earnings in hard currency through export was about 0. 341 billion dollars; for meat and aquatic animal products, the RCA and TSC value were 3.58 and 0.95, and the earnings in hard currency through export was about 3.296 billion dollars; and for fruits and vegetables, the RCA and TSC value were 3.39 and 0.54, and the earnings in hard currency through export was about 15.093 billion dollars. In general, China's dominant advantageous agricultural products were low in mechanical substitution and high in labor-intensive degree. However, the comparative advantage of some dominant agricultural products in China is declining, in order to improve the international trade advantage of China's dominant agricultural products, we should adequately bring the natural environment factors into play,develop and popularize the agricultural mechanization, accelerate the research and development of processing technology of agricultural products.
引文
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[14]卢锋,杨业伟.中国农业劳动力占比变动因素估测:1990~2030年[J].中国人口科学,2012(4):13-24.
[15]王丹,高道明,包利民.我国苹果产品国际竞争力下降原因分析[J].农业技术经济,2017(9):58-65.
[16]中国丝绸协会.需求动力不足外贸持续下滑[J].纺织服装周刊,2016(6):53.
[17]中国丝绸协会.出口下降明显下行压力加大[J].纺织服装周刊,2015(30):36.
[18]周晓时,李谷成.对农村居民“食物消费之谜”的一个解释——基于农业机械化进程的研究视角[J].农业技术经济,2017(6):4-13.
[2]程国强.呈现跌势的创汇大户——中国农产品贸易格局[J].国际贸易,1998(11):4-6.
[3]郄贺良,田志宏.我国农产品的比较优势分析[J].中国农业大学学报,1999(6):18-24.
[4]帅传敏,程国强,张金隆.中国农产品国际竞争力的估计[J].管理世界,2003(1):97-104.
[5]LIU H,TADA M,DONGSHENG S.Changing Patterns in Comparative Advantage for Agricultural Trade in East Asian Countries[J].China Agricultural Economic Review,2009,1(2):227-38.
[6]孙林,赵慧娥.中国和东盟农产品贸易波动的实证分析[J].中国农村经济,2004(7):46-52.
[7]耿晔强.中国主要农产品贸易流量及潜力研究——基于面板数据的引力模型实证分析[J].西北师大学报(社会科学版),2015,52(4):132-8.
[8]BALASSA B.Trade liberalisation and"revealed"comparative advantage[J].The manchester school,1965,33(2):99-123.
[9]BALASSA B.Comparative advantage in manufactured goods:a reappraisal[J].The Review of Economics and Statistics,1986,68(2):315-319.
[10]FAGERBERG J.User-producer interaction,learning and comparative advantage[J].Cambridge Journal of Economics,1995,19(1):243-256.
[11]DALUM B,LAURSEN K,VILLUMSEN G.Structural change in OECD export specialisation patterns:de-specialisation and"stickiness"[J].International Review of Applied Economics,1998,12(3):423-443.
[12]余妙志,梁银锋,高颖.中国与南亚地区农产品贸易的竞争性与互补性——以“一带一路”战略为背景[J].农业经济问题,2016(12):83-94,112.
[13]毕士川,黄冬梅.我国近海渔业资源可持续发展问题分析与建议[J].中国水产,2005(4):75-77.
[14]卢锋,杨业伟.中国农业劳动力占比变动因素估测:1990~2030年[J].中国人口科学,2012(4):13-24.
[15]王丹,高道明,包利民.我国苹果产品国际竞争力下降原因分析[J].农业技术经济,2017(9):58-65.
[16]中国丝绸协会.需求动力不足外贸持续下滑[J].纺织服装周刊,2016(6):53.
[17]中国丝绸协会.出口下降明显下行压力加大[J].纺织服装周刊,2015(30):36.
[18]周晓时,李谷成.对农村居民“食物消费之谜”的一个解释——基于农业机械化进程的研究视角[J].农业技术经济,2017(6):4-13.