不确定条件下报废汽车回收率云模型仿真研究
|
摘要
报废汽车回收与再制造是节约资源的重要途径,回收率是其中的关键指标之一。影响回收率的因素很多,尤其是回收系统中不确定性因素对回收率具有重要影响。因此,首先从系统工程角度出发,分析消费者行为、企业意愿、政府政策等影响回收率的不确定因素,建立报废汽车回收率系统递阶结构模型,运用模糊语言概念进行定性评价,并借助云模型工具,构建定性规则描述系统因素之间逻辑因果关系,得到报废汽车回收与再制造多维多规则不确定性推理系统,进而通过系统仿真,分析了国家法律法规、财政投入、消费者对再制造品购买态度等不确定性因素对回收率的影响。结果表明,模型直观地揭示了相关不确定性因素对回收率的影响机理,对政府和相关行业具有重要的参考价值。
Currently, the recycling of End-of-Life Vehicles(ELVs)is driven not only by economic and technological factors, but also by global energy, environmental, and social concerns. This paper uses interpretative structural modeling to analyze ELV recycling systems in order to predict the dependence of the recycling ratio on various factors such as consumer behavior, enterprise preference, government policy, etc. In this methodology, a normal cloud model is proposed by analyzing each factor's uncertainty using fuzzy language concepts. Then, a multi-dimensional reasoning system and multi-rule deductive systems are established to describe relationships among these factors. In addition, from the system simulation,the results of this paper offer a reasonable prediction of the recycling ratio via formal and illegal recycling channels under different base uncertainty factors such as national legal regulation, financial input, and consumer attitude towards remanufactured products.
Currently, the recycling of End-of-Life Vehicles(ELVs)is driven not only by economic and technological factors, but also by global energy, environmental, and social concerns. This paper uses interpretative structural modeling to analyze ELV recycling systems in order to predict the dependence of the recycling ratio on various factors such as consumer behavior, enterprise preference, government policy, etc. In this methodology, a normal cloud model is proposed by analyzing each factor's uncertainty using fuzzy language concepts. Then, a multi-dimensional reasoning system and multi-rule deductive systems are established to describe relationships among these factors. In addition, from the system simulation,the results of this paper offer a reasonable prediction of the recycling ratio via formal and illegal recycling channels under different base uncertainty factors such as national legal regulation, financial input, and consumer attitude towards remanufactured products.
引文
[1]Haapala K R,Zhao F,Camelio J,et al.A review of engineering research in sustainable manufacturing[J].Journal of Manufacturing Science and Engineering,2013,135(4):1-16.
[2]Simic V,Dimitrijevic B.Modelling of automobile shredder residue recycling in the Japanese legislative context[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2013,40(18):7159-7167.
[3]Vlachos D,Georgiadis P,Iakovou E.A system dynamics model for dynamic capacity planning of remanufacturing in closed-loop supply chains[J].Computers&Operations Research,2007,34(2):367-394.
[4]Saman H A,Zhang Guoqing.A multi-objective facility location model for closed-loop supply chain network under uncertain demand and return[J].Applied Mathematical Modeling,2013,37(6):4165-4176.
[5]Tang Xifeng,Mao Haijun,Li Xuhong.Effect of quality uncertainty of parts on performance of reprocessing system in remanufacturing environment[J].Journal of Southeast University,2011,27(1):91-95.
[6]Denizel M,Ferguson M,Souza G.Multiperiod remanufacturing planning with uncertain quality of inputs[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management,2010,57(3):394-404.
[7]Baghalian A,Rezapour S,Farahani R Z.Robust supply chain network design with service level against disruptions and demand uncertainties:a real-life case[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2013,227(1):199-215.
[8]Kusumaningdyah W,Eunike A,Yuniarti R.Modeling tradeoff in ship breaking industry considering sustainability aspects:a system dynamics approach[J].Procedia Environmental Sciences,2013,17(1):785-794.
[9]余福茂.情境因素对城市居民废旧家电回收行为的影响[J].生态经济,2012,249(2):137-141.
[10]计国君,黄位旺.WEEE回收条例有效实施问题研究[J].管理科学学报,2012,15(5):1-9.
[11]常香云,钟永光,王艺璇,等.促进我国汽车零部件再制造的政府低碳引导政策研究——以汽车发动机再制造为例[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(11):2811-2821.
[12]Ferrao P,Nazareth P,Amaral J.Strategies for meeting EU end-of-life vehicle reuse/recovery targets[J].Journal of Industrial Ecology,2006,10(4):77-93.
[13]Farel R,Yannou B,Ghaffari A,et al.A cost and benefit analysis of future end-of-life vehicle glazing recycling in France:a systematic approach[J].Resources Conservation and Recycling,2013,74(5):54-65.
[14]Behdad S,Thurston D.Disassembly and reassembly sequence planning tradeoffs under uncertainty for product maintenance[J].Jounal of Mechanical Design,2012.
[15]毛海军,芮维娜,李旭宏.基于不确定条件的再制造物流网络优化设计[J].东南大学学报:自然科学版,2010,40(2):425-430.
[16]苏春,沙洋娟.基于混合不确定性和证据理论的再制造生产计划[J].东南大学学报:自然科学版,2010,40(4):712-716.
[17]李聪波,李玲玲,曹华军,等.废旧零部件不确定性再制造工艺时间的模糊学习系统[J].机械工程学报,2013,49(15):137-146.
[18]张晶,梁工谦.基于零件质量不确定性的再制造生产系统可靠性分析[J].工业工程,2013,16(2):117-121.
[19]李成川,李聪波,曹华军,等.基于GERT图的废旧零部件不确定性再制造工艺路线模型[J].计算机集成制造系统,2012,18(2).
[20]杨爱峰,季园园,胡小建,等.质量不确定的回收品采购量及再制造排序策略[J].合肥工业大学学报:自然科学版,2014,37(4):473-477.
[21]Li C B,Tang Y,Li C C.A GERT-based analytical method for remanufacturing process routing[C]//Proceedings of IEEE 7th International Conference on Automation Science and Engineering,Trieste,Italy,Aug 24-27,2011:462-467.
[22]Tang Y,Li C B.Uncertainty management in remanufacturing:a review[C]//Proceedings of IEEE 8th International Conference on Automation Science and Engineering,Aug 20-24,2012:52-57.
[23]Teunter R,Flapper S.Optimal core acquisition and remanufacturing policies under uncertain core quality fractions[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2010,210:241-248.
[24]温海骏,刘明周,刘长义,等.不确定环境下回收发动机拆卸调度方法[J].计算机集成制造系统,2015,21(5):1279-1286.
[25]岳辉,钟学燕,叶怀珍.随机环境下再制造逆向物流网络优化设计[J].中国机械工程,2007,18(4):442-446.
[26]徐小峰,赵金楼,宋杰鲲.复杂制造协同物流网络资源规划的不确定性控制优化[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012,32(4):799-806.
[27]熊中楷,方衍,张聪誉.以旧换新收购方式下的逆向物流网络优化设计[J].中国管理科学,2011,19(6):65-72.
[28]Das D,Dutta P.A system dynamics framework for integrated reverse supply chain with three way recovery and product exchange policy[J].Computers&Industrial Engineering,2013,66(4):720-733.
[29]Rosa V D,Gebhard M,Hartmann E,et al.Robust sustainable bi-directional logistics network design under uncertainty[J].Int J Production Economics,2013,145(1):184-198.
[30]高阳,周向红,刘军.灰色环境下多周期再制造逆向物流网络设计[J].统计与决策,2014(6):174-177.
[31]申成然,熊中楷,彭志强.专利保护与政府补贴下再制造闭环供应链的决策和协调[J].管理工程学报,2013,27(3):132-138.
[32]Ketzenberg M,Laan V D,Teunter R H.Value of information in closed loop supply chains[J].Production&Operations Management,2006(15):393-406.
[33]万延花,陈伟达.需求不确定的再制造批量决策[J].系统管理学报,2012,21(2):270-274.
[34]Kenne J P,Dejax P,Gharbi A.Production planning of a hybrid manufacturing-remanufacturing system under uncertainty within a closed-loop supply chain[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2012,135(1):81-93.
[35]易余胤,梁家密.不确定需求下具奖惩机制的闭环供应链模型[J].计算机集成制造系统,2012,18(9):2040-2051.
[36]李德毅,孟海军.隶属云和隶属云发生器[J].计算机研究与发展,1995,32(6):15-20.
[37]邓乾旺,李卫明,李珣,等.机械产品回收与再制造系统中绿色影响因子关联仿真模型[J].中国机械工程,2015,26(22):3064-3075.
[38]周永圣,汪寿阳.政府监控下的退役产品回收模式[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(4):615-621.
[39]周育红,姜朝阳.我国汽车报废回收利用体系框架初探[J].环境科学与技术,2006,29(3):94-96.
[40]Li L,Liu L,Yang C,et al.The comprehensive evaluation of smart distribution grid based on cloud model[J].Energy Procedia,2012,17:96-102.
[41]Fan Linjun,Ling Yunxiang,Liao Liangcai,et al.An improved evaluation method based on cloud models for situation consistency within the battlefield of joint operations[J].Procedia Engineering,2012,29:1590-1595.
[2]Simic V,Dimitrijevic B.Modelling of automobile shredder residue recycling in the Japanese legislative context[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2013,40(18):7159-7167.
[3]Vlachos D,Georgiadis P,Iakovou E.A system dynamics model for dynamic capacity planning of remanufacturing in closed-loop supply chains[J].Computers&Operations Research,2007,34(2):367-394.
[4]Saman H A,Zhang Guoqing.A multi-objective facility location model for closed-loop supply chain network under uncertain demand and return[J].Applied Mathematical Modeling,2013,37(6):4165-4176.
[5]Tang Xifeng,Mao Haijun,Li Xuhong.Effect of quality uncertainty of parts on performance of reprocessing system in remanufacturing environment[J].Journal of Southeast University,2011,27(1):91-95.
[6]Denizel M,Ferguson M,Souza G.Multiperiod remanufacturing planning with uncertain quality of inputs[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management,2010,57(3):394-404.
[7]Baghalian A,Rezapour S,Farahani R Z.Robust supply chain network design with service level against disruptions and demand uncertainties:a real-life case[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2013,227(1):199-215.
[8]Kusumaningdyah W,Eunike A,Yuniarti R.Modeling tradeoff in ship breaking industry considering sustainability aspects:a system dynamics approach[J].Procedia Environmental Sciences,2013,17(1):785-794.
[9]余福茂.情境因素对城市居民废旧家电回收行为的影响[J].生态经济,2012,249(2):137-141.
[10]计国君,黄位旺.WEEE回收条例有效实施问题研究[J].管理科学学报,2012,15(5):1-9.
[11]常香云,钟永光,王艺璇,等.促进我国汽车零部件再制造的政府低碳引导政策研究——以汽车发动机再制造为例[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013,33(11):2811-2821.
[12]Ferrao P,Nazareth P,Amaral J.Strategies for meeting EU end-of-life vehicle reuse/recovery targets[J].Journal of Industrial Ecology,2006,10(4):77-93.
[13]Farel R,Yannou B,Ghaffari A,et al.A cost and benefit analysis of future end-of-life vehicle glazing recycling in France:a systematic approach[J].Resources Conservation and Recycling,2013,74(5):54-65.
[14]Behdad S,Thurston D.Disassembly and reassembly sequence planning tradeoffs under uncertainty for product maintenance[J].Jounal of Mechanical Design,2012.
[15]毛海军,芮维娜,李旭宏.基于不确定条件的再制造物流网络优化设计[J].东南大学学报:自然科学版,2010,40(2):425-430.
[16]苏春,沙洋娟.基于混合不确定性和证据理论的再制造生产计划[J].东南大学学报:自然科学版,2010,40(4):712-716.
[17]李聪波,李玲玲,曹华军,等.废旧零部件不确定性再制造工艺时间的模糊学习系统[J].机械工程学报,2013,49(15):137-146.
[18]张晶,梁工谦.基于零件质量不确定性的再制造生产系统可靠性分析[J].工业工程,2013,16(2):117-121.
[19]李成川,李聪波,曹华军,等.基于GERT图的废旧零部件不确定性再制造工艺路线模型[J].计算机集成制造系统,2012,18(2).
[20]杨爱峰,季园园,胡小建,等.质量不确定的回收品采购量及再制造排序策略[J].合肥工业大学学报:自然科学版,2014,37(4):473-477.
[21]Li C B,Tang Y,Li C C.A GERT-based analytical method for remanufacturing process routing[C]//Proceedings of IEEE 7th International Conference on Automation Science and Engineering,Trieste,Italy,Aug 24-27,2011:462-467.
[22]Tang Y,Li C B.Uncertainty management in remanufacturing:a review[C]//Proceedings of IEEE 8th International Conference on Automation Science and Engineering,Aug 20-24,2012:52-57.
[23]Teunter R,Flapper S.Optimal core acquisition and remanufacturing policies under uncertain core quality fractions[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2010,210:241-248.
[24]温海骏,刘明周,刘长义,等.不确定环境下回收发动机拆卸调度方法[J].计算机集成制造系统,2015,21(5):1279-1286.
[25]岳辉,钟学燕,叶怀珍.随机环境下再制造逆向物流网络优化设计[J].中国机械工程,2007,18(4):442-446.
[26]徐小峰,赵金楼,宋杰鲲.复杂制造协同物流网络资源规划的不确定性控制优化[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012,32(4):799-806.
[27]熊中楷,方衍,张聪誉.以旧换新收购方式下的逆向物流网络优化设计[J].中国管理科学,2011,19(6):65-72.
[28]Das D,Dutta P.A system dynamics framework for integrated reverse supply chain with three way recovery and product exchange policy[J].Computers&Industrial Engineering,2013,66(4):720-733.
[29]Rosa V D,Gebhard M,Hartmann E,et al.Robust sustainable bi-directional logistics network design under uncertainty[J].Int J Production Economics,2013,145(1):184-198.
[30]高阳,周向红,刘军.灰色环境下多周期再制造逆向物流网络设计[J].统计与决策,2014(6):174-177.
[31]申成然,熊中楷,彭志强.专利保护与政府补贴下再制造闭环供应链的决策和协调[J].管理工程学报,2013,27(3):132-138.
[32]Ketzenberg M,Laan V D,Teunter R H.Value of information in closed loop supply chains[J].Production&Operations Management,2006(15):393-406.
[33]万延花,陈伟达.需求不确定的再制造批量决策[J].系统管理学报,2012,21(2):270-274.
[34]Kenne J P,Dejax P,Gharbi A.Production planning of a hybrid manufacturing-remanufacturing system under uncertainty within a closed-loop supply chain[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2012,135(1):81-93.
[35]易余胤,梁家密.不确定需求下具奖惩机制的闭环供应链模型[J].计算机集成制造系统,2012,18(9):2040-2051.
[36]李德毅,孟海军.隶属云和隶属云发生器[J].计算机研究与发展,1995,32(6):15-20.
[37]邓乾旺,李卫明,李珣,等.机械产品回收与再制造系统中绿色影响因子关联仿真模型[J].中国机械工程,2015,26(22):3064-3075.
[38]周永圣,汪寿阳.政府监控下的退役产品回收模式[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(4):615-621.
[39]周育红,姜朝阳.我国汽车报废回收利用体系框架初探[J].环境科学与技术,2006,29(3):94-96.
[40]Li L,Liu L,Yang C,et al.The comprehensive evaluation of smart distribution grid based on cloud model[J].Energy Procedia,2012,17:96-102.
[41]Fan Linjun,Ling Yunxiang,Liao Liangcai,et al.An improved evaluation method based on cloud models for situation consistency within the battlefield of joint operations[J].Procedia Engineering,2012,29:1590-1595.