基于SD模型的京沪高铁对沿线亟待发展城市的经济影响研究——以沧州市为例
|
摘要
以沧州市为例,从系统的角度分析京沪高铁对沿线亟待发展城市经济影响机制,找出京沪高铁-城市经济发展系统的构成要素,明确系统内部的反馈机制,构建了京沪高铁-城市经济发展系统的动力学模型。以沧州市2012—2018年的相关数据为基础,论证了京沪高铁对沧州市经济总量、第二产业、第三产业发展,就业人口数量增长的促进作用及沧州市经济增长对京沪高铁沧州站的客运量增长的正向影响。沧州市的三次产业结构比逐年优化,并且从长期来看京沪高铁与沧州市经济相互促进增长的效应会进一步扩大。
Taking Cangzhou city as an example, the paper analyzes the impact mechanism of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway on the economic in a city, which is to be developed along the line, from a perspective of system. The components of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway-the urban economic development system,the feedback mechanisms within the system,are identified. The system dynamics model of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway-city economic development is established. Cangzhou City as an examples demonstrate the positive impact of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway on the economic aggregate, the development of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry, as well as the growth of the number of employed population.The impact of the economic growth of Cangzhou City on the passenger traffic growth of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway at Cangzhou station is also demonstrated too.The three industrial structures in Cangzhou city are optimized yearly, and the effect of the mutual growth of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail and the Cangzhou city will be further expanded in the long run.
Taking Cangzhou city as an example, the paper analyzes the impact mechanism of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway on the economic in a city, which is to be developed along the line, from a perspective of system. The components of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway-the urban economic development system,the feedback mechanisms within the system,are identified. The system dynamics model of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway-city economic development is established. Cangzhou City as an examples demonstrate the positive impact of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway on the economic aggregate, the development of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry, as well as the growth of the number of employed population.The impact of the economic growth of Cangzhou City on the passenger traffic growth of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway at Cangzhou station is also demonstrated too.The three industrial structures in Cangzhou city are optimized yearly, and the effect of the mutual growth of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail and the Cangzhou city will be further expanded in the long run.
引文
[1]Chia-Lin Chen,Peter hall.The wider spatial-economic impacts of high-speed trains:a comparative case study of Manchester and Lille sub-regions[J].Journal of Tansport Geography,2012(9):89-110.
[2]Qin Y.“No country left behind?”The distributional impact of high-speed rail upgrades in China[J].Jou-rnal of Economic Geography,2017,17(3):lbw013.
[3]Guineng Chen,Joao de Abreu e Silva.Estimating the ProvincialEconomic Impacts of High-speedRail in Spain:An Applicaton of Structural Equation Modeling[J].ProcediaSocial and Behavioral Sciences,2014(01).
[4]Ke X,Chen H,Hong Y,et al.Do China’s high-speed-rail projects promote local economy?New evidence from a panel data approach[J].China Economic Review,2017,44:203-226.
[5]张俊.高铁建设与县域经济发展--基于卫星灯光数据的研究[J].经济学:季刊,2017(4).
[6]陈建军,郑广建.集聚视角下高速铁路与城市发展[J].江淮论坛,2014(2):37-44.
[7]覃成林,种照辉.高速铁路发展与铁路沿线城市经济集[J].经济问题探索,2014(5):163-169.
[8]张铭洪,张清源,梁若冰.高铁对城市房价的非线性及异质性影响研究[J].当代财经,2017(9):3-13.
[9]董艳梅,朱英明.高铁建设的就业效应研究--基于中国285个城市倾向匹配倍差法的证据[J].经济管理,2016(11):26-44.
[10]蒋华雄,蔡宏钰,孟晓晨.高速铁路对中国城市产业结构的影响研究[J].人文地理,2017(5):132-138.
[11]李雪松,孙博文.高铁开通促进了地区制造业集聚吗?--基于京广高铁的准自然试验研究[J].中国软科学2017(7):81-90.
[12]户佐安,安婷,薛峰,李博威.交通基础设施-经济-环境系统协调度评价模型研究[J].综合运输,2018,40(7):22-24,72.
[13]袁顺娟.高速铁路对区域经济的影响研究[D].兰州:兰州交通大学,2014.
[14]林晓言.高铁经济研究成果述评及基础理论走向[J].北京交通大学学报(社会科学版),2018,17(4):20-37.
[15]覃成林覃,黄龙杰.中国高铁与区域经济发展研究进展[J].广西大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018,40(5):72-79.
[16]张慧婷.典型高铁沿线城市在京沪高铁影响下的发展研究[D].天津:天津大学,2012.
[2]Qin Y.“No country left behind?”The distributional impact of high-speed rail upgrades in China[J].Jou-rnal of Economic Geography,2017,17(3):lbw013.
[3]Guineng Chen,Joao de Abreu e Silva.Estimating the ProvincialEconomic Impacts of High-speedRail in Spain:An Applicaton of Structural Equation Modeling[J].ProcediaSocial and Behavioral Sciences,2014(01).
[4]Ke X,Chen H,Hong Y,et al.Do China’s high-speed-rail projects promote local economy?New evidence from a panel data approach[J].China Economic Review,2017,44:203-226.
[5]张俊.高铁建设与县域经济发展--基于卫星灯光数据的研究[J].经济学:季刊,2017(4).
[6]陈建军,郑广建.集聚视角下高速铁路与城市发展[J].江淮论坛,2014(2):37-44.
[7]覃成林,种照辉.高速铁路发展与铁路沿线城市经济集[J].经济问题探索,2014(5):163-169.
[8]张铭洪,张清源,梁若冰.高铁对城市房价的非线性及异质性影响研究[J].当代财经,2017(9):3-13.
[9]董艳梅,朱英明.高铁建设的就业效应研究--基于中国285个城市倾向匹配倍差法的证据[J].经济管理,2016(11):26-44.
[10]蒋华雄,蔡宏钰,孟晓晨.高速铁路对中国城市产业结构的影响研究[J].人文地理,2017(5):132-138.
[11]李雪松,孙博文.高铁开通促进了地区制造业集聚吗?--基于京广高铁的准自然试验研究[J].中国软科学2017(7):81-90.
[12]户佐安,安婷,薛峰,李博威.交通基础设施-经济-环境系统协调度评价模型研究[J].综合运输,2018,40(7):22-24,72.
[13]袁顺娟.高速铁路对区域经济的影响研究[D].兰州:兰州交通大学,2014.
[14]林晓言.高铁经济研究成果述评及基础理论走向[J].北京交通大学学报(社会科学版),2018,17(4):20-37.
[15]覃成林覃,黄龙杰.中国高铁与区域经济发展研究进展[J].广西大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2018,40(5):72-79.
[16]张慧婷.典型高铁沿线城市在京沪高铁影响下的发展研究[D].天津:天津大学,2012.