全球变局下的中日经济关系新趋势
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摘要
经过70年的长期合作与磨合,中日经济关系已然形成互惠互补、互利共赢的良好局面,但仍然存在相互投资不均衡、非理性竞争加剧等问题。在全球变局背景下,作为主要参与力量,中美日的大国关系变化也将影响中日经济走向,中国实力的持续上升将对中日经济关系产生正向影响,美国的战略收缩也在改变着日本的战略选择。另外,新时代为中日经济合作开辟新天地;中国实现新时代战略目标需要借鉴日本经验;"一带一路"倡议为中日经济合作提供新平台。整体来看,近中期的中日经济关系将保持稳定甚至较快发展,中日两国也将在全球价值链、节能环保、共同应对老龄化等前沿、重点领域继续深化合作。在全球变局下,中日经济关系会遇到各种挑战,但仍将保持健康发展的大趋势。
After 70 years of long-term cooperation and run-in,Sino-Japan Economic Relation has formed a good situation of mutual benefit and win-win. However,there are still some problems,such as the unbalance of mutual investment and the intensification of irrational competition. In the context of global change,as the main participating force,the changes of USA,China and Japan will also affect Sino-Japan Economic Relation. The continuous rise of Chinawill have a positive impact on it. The strategic contraction of the United States is also changing Japan's strategic choice. The impact of Sino-US trade war brings more positive impact than the negative impact to Sino-Japan economic relations. In addition,China's entry into the new eraalso affects Sino-Japan economic relations. For example,China needs to learn lessons from Japan in achieving the new era's strategic objectives;the new era opens up new possibilities for Sino-Japan economic cooperation;the third-party market cooperation provides a new platform for it. Overall,in the near and mid-term,Sino-Japan economic relations will remain stable or even develop rapidly. China and Japan will continue to deepen cooperation in the frontier and key areas,such as global value chains,energy conservation,environmental protection,and dealing with the aging problem. In the context of global change,Sino-Japan economic relations will face various challenges,but they will still maintain sound momentum of growth.
After 70 years of long-term cooperation and run-in,Sino-Japan Economic Relation has formed a good situation of mutual benefit and win-win. However,there are still some problems,such as the unbalance of mutual investment and the intensification of irrational competition. In the context of global change,as the main participating force,the changes of USA,China and Japan will also affect Sino-Japan Economic Relation. The continuous rise of Chinawill have a positive impact on it. The strategic contraction of the United States is also changing Japan's strategic choice. The impact of Sino-US trade war brings more positive impact than the negative impact to Sino-Japan economic relations. In addition,China's entry into the new eraalso affects Sino-Japan economic relations. For example,China needs to learn lessons from Japan in achieving the new era's strategic objectives;the new era opens up new possibilities for Sino-Japan economic cooperation;the third-party market cooperation provides a new platform for it. Overall,in the near and mid-term,Sino-Japan economic relations will remain stable or even develop rapidly. China and Japan will continue to deepen cooperation in the frontier and key areas,such as global value chains,energy conservation,environmental protection,and dealing with the aging problem. In the context of global change,Sino-Japan economic relations will face various challenges,but they will still maintain sound momentum of growth.
引文
[1]张季风.中日经贸关系70年回顾与思考[J].现代日本经济,2015(6):1-12.
[2]中国政府网.这个35亿人口的“朋友圈”距建成更近了,李克强呼吁踢好“临门一脚”[EB/OL].http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2018-11/15/content_5340618.htm.
[3]国土交通省観光庁.訪日外国人消費動向調査[R].http://www.mlit.go.jp/kankocho/siryou/toukei/syouhityousa.html.
[4]国土交通省観光庁.2018年全国調査結果(速報)[R].http://www.mlit.go.jp/common/001268656.pdf,2019-01-16.
[5]株式会社JTB総合研究所.海外観光旅行の現状2018要約[EB/OL].https://www.tourism.jp/wp/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/release_overseastrip_2018.pdf.
[6]张蕴岭.百年大变局下的中日关系[J].亚太安全与海洋研究,2019(1):1-11.
[7]杨洁勉.当前国际大格局的变化、影响和趋势[J].现代国际关系,2019(3):1-6.
[8]武心波.百年未有大变局,中日关系有“明”“暗”[N].解放日报,2019-01-16.
[9]木内登英.米圧力の脅威車の輸出規制、円高是正迫る米国日本の景気後退の現実味[J].週刊エコノミスト,2018-12-25,pp28.
[10]新华网.习近平在第二届“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛开幕式上的主旨讲演[EB/OL].2019-04-026:http://www.xinhuanet.com/world/2019-04/26/c_1210119584.htm.
[11]徐梅.从一带一路看中日第三方市场合作的机遇与前景[J].东北亚论坛,2019(3):55-67.
[12] IMF.Brighter Prospects,Optimistic Markets,Challenges Ahead[R].World Economic Outlook Update,January2018, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/01/11/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2018
[13]姜跃春.世界经济新变局与中日合作新空间[J].日本问题研究,2019(1):1-9.
(1)数据来源于中国商务部:《2017年中国对外直接投资统计公报》,2018,第45页,http://fec.mofcom.gov.cn/article/tjsj/tjgh/201809/20180902791493.shtml。
(1)中国人民银行公告,2018年10月26日。
(1)据日本贸易振兴机构测算,2018年日本吸引外资存量约为29.9万亿日元,约折合2727亿美元,44亿美元约为其1.6%。
(1)所谓“安倍经济学景气”是指第二次安倍内阁诞生以来日本经济出现的超长期繁荣,截至2019年4月已经持续了76个月,为战后日本最长的繁荣期。
[2]中国政府网.这个35亿人口的“朋友圈”距建成更近了,李克强呼吁踢好“临门一脚”[EB/OL].http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2018-11/15/content_5340618.htm.
[3]国土交通省観光庁.訪日外国人消費動向調査[R].http://www.mlit.go.jp/kankocho/siryou/toukei/syouhityousa.html.
[4]国土交通省観光庁.2018年全国調査結果(速報)[R].http://www.mlit.go.jp/common/001268656.pdf,2019-01-16.
[5]株式会社JTB総合研究所.海外観光旅行の現状2018要約[EB/OL].https://www.tourism.jp/wp/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/release_overseastrip_2018.pdf.
[6]张蕴岭.百年大变局下的中日关系[J].亚太安全与海洋研究,2019(1):1-11.
[7]杨洁勉.当前国际大格局的变化、影响和趋势[J].现代国际关系,2019(3):1-6.
[8]武心波.百年未有大变局,中日关系有“明”“暗”[N].解放日报,2019-01-16.
[9]木内登英.米圧力の脅威車の輸出規制、円高是正迫る米国日本の景気後退の現実味[J].週刊エコノミスト,2018-12-25,pp28.
[10]新华网.习近平在第二届“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛开幕式上的主旨讲演[EB/OL].2019-04-026:http://www.xinhuanet.com/world/2019-04/26/c_1210119584.htm.
[11]徐梅.从一带一路看中日第三方市场合作的机遇与前景[J].东北亚论坛,2019(3):55-67.
[12] IMF.Brighter Prospects,Optimistic Markets,Challenges Ahead[R].World Economic Outlook Update,January2018, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2018/01/11/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2018
[13]姜跃春.世界经济新变局与中日合作新空间[J].日本问题研究,2019(1):1-9.
(1)数据来源于中国商务部:《2017年中国对外直接投资统计公报》,2018,第45页,http://fec.mofcom.gov.cn/article/tjsj/tjgh/201809/20180902791493.shtml。
(1)中国人民银行公告,2018年10月26日。
(1)据日本贸易振兴机构测算,2018年日本吸引外资存量约为29.9万亿日元,约折合2727亿美元,44亿美元约为其1.6%。
(1)所谓“安倍经济学景气”是指第二次安倍内阁诞生以来日本经济出现的超长期繁荣,截至2019年4月已经持续了76个月,为战后日本最长的繁荣期。