我国青少年犯罪的影响因素分析——基于时间序列数据的实证研究
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摘要
青少年犯罪问题是世界各国政府和学者都关注的问题。通过建立多元时间序列的VAR模型,利用我国2001-2015年青少年犯罪统计数据,分析惩戒犯罪的严厉性政策、惩戒犯罪的确定性政策、司法投入、处于青春期人口占总人口的比例、高中入学率对青少年犯罪的影响。研究结果表明,惩戒犯罪的严厉性政策对青少年犯罪具有震慑效果,高中入学率有助于青少年犯罪率降低,惩戒犯罪的确定性、司法投入、处于青春期人口占总人口的比例对青少年犯罪的影响不显著。
The juvenile delinquency is the problem concerned by governments and scholars all over the world. By establishing the VAR model of multiple time series and making use of the statistical data regarding juvenile delinquency in China from 2001 to 2015,this paper tries to analyze the influencing factors of juvenile delinquency,including the severity policy of punishing crime,the certainty policy of punishing crime,the judicial input,the proportion of adolescent population on the whole population,the influence of high school enrolment rate on juvenile delinquency. According to the research results,the severity policy of punishing crime has the deterrent effect on juvenile delinquency; the high school enrolment rate is helpful to reduce the rate of juvenile delinquency; while the certainty of punishing crime,judicial input,the proportion of adolescent population on the whole population do not have significant influences on juvenile delinquency.
The juvenile delinquency is the problem concerned by governments and scholars all over the world. By establishing the VAR model of multiple time series and making use of the statistical data regarding juvenile delinquency in China from 2001 to 2015,this paper tries to analyze the influencing factors of juvenile delinquency,including the severity policy of punishing crime,the certainty policy of punishing crime,the judicial input,the proportion of adolescent population on the whole population,the influence of high school enrolment rate on juvenile delinquency. According to the research results,the severity policy of punishing crime has the deterrent effect on juvenile delinquency; the high school enrolment rate is helpful to reduce the rate of juvenile delinquency; while the certainty of punishing crime,judicial input,the proportion of adolescent population on the whole population do not have significant influences on juvenile delinquency.
引文
贝卡利亚,2003,《〈论犯罪与刑罚〉及其他著作》(影印本),北京:中国政法大学出版社。
陈刚,2016,《劳动力迁移、亲子分离与青少年犯罪》,《青年研究》第2期。
陈刚、李树,2011,《教育对犯罪率的影响研究》,《中国人口科学》第3期。
陈刚、李树、陈屹立,2010,《中国犯罪治理的财政支出偏向:选择“大棒”还是“胡萝卜”?》,《南开经济研究》第2期。
陈强,2014,《高级计量经济学及Stata应用》(第二版),北京:高等教育出版社。
陈硕,2012,《转型期中国的犯罪治理政策:堵还是疏?》,《经济学(季刊)》第2期。
陈硕、刘飞,2013,《中国转型期犯罪的社会成本估算》,《世界经济文汇》第3期。
陈硕、章元,2014,《治乱无需重典:转型期中国刑事政策效果分析》,《经济学(季刊)》第4期。
陈屹立、张卫国,2010,《惩罚对犯罪的威慑效应:基于中国数据的实证研究》,《南方经济》第8期。
胡联合、胡鞍钢,2006,《对转型期中国犯罪实际发案情况的估测》,《社会科学》第1期。
金小红、陈明香,2013,《社会管理创新背景下城市流动青少年犯罪治理研究——基于社会融合的视角》,《社会主义研究》第2期。
金小红、李震,2013,《流动青少年犯罪归因的实证研究——以湖北省为例》,《教育研究与实验》第4期。
刘能,2003,《越轨社会学视角下的青少年犯罪》,《青年研究》第11期。
刘亚娜,2012,《青少年犯罪预防视阈下的网络游戏监管制度研究》,《社会科学战线》第8期。
毛颖,2011,《民生支出有助于减低刑事犯罪率吗?——来自中国(1995-2008)省级面板数据的证据》,《南开经济研究》第4期。
屈智勇、邹泓,2009,《家庭环境、父母监控、自我控制与青少年犯罪》,《心理科学》第2期。
屈智勇、邹泓、段晓英,2006,《自我控制、价值观与青少年犯罪的关系》,《青年研究》第5期。
魏占军,2017,《立案标准调整与犯罪治理的实证研究》,《世界经济文汇》第2期。
肖伟,2007,《超越传统模式的局限——对刑事和解引入青少年犯罪治理领域的考察》,《青年研究》第1期。
曾培芳,2007,《我国青少年犯罪预防和矫正理论与实践模式的整合——以社会控制与社会支持为视角》,《江西社会科学》第12期。
中华人民共和国国家统计局,2016,《中国统计年鉴》(2016)(http://data.cnki.net/Yearbook/Single/N2017030066)。
Agnew,R.1992,“Foundation for a General Strain Theory of Crime and Delinquency.” Criminology 30(1).
Becker,G.S.1968,“Crime and Punishment:An Economic Approach.” Journal of Political Economy 76.
Berg,M.T.,E.A.Stewart,R.K.Brunson & R.L.Simons 2012,“Neighborhood Cultural Heterogeneity and Adolescent Violence.” Journal of Quantitative Criminology 28(3).
Deng,S.& M.W.Roosa 2007,“Family Influences on Adolescent Delinquent Behaviors:Applying the Social Development Model to A Chinese Sample.” American Journal of Community Psychology 40(3-4).
Ehrlich,I.1973,“Participation in Illegitimate Activities:A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation.” Journal of Political Economy 81(3).
Forst,B.E.1976,“Participation in Illegitimate Activities:Further Empirical Findings.” Policy Analysis 2(3).
Gottfredson,M.R.& T.Hirschi 1990,A General Theory of Crime.Stanford:Stanford University Press.
Hirschi,T.1969,“Causes Of Delinquency.” Berkeley:University of California Press.
Humphries,D.& D.Wallace 1980,“Capitalist Accumulation and Urban Crime,1950-1971.” Social Problems 28(2).
Jacob,H.& M.J.Rich 1981,“Effects of the Police on Crime:A Second Look.” Law & Society Review 1(15).
Lemert,E.1972,Human Deviance,Social Problems,and Social Control.Englewood Cliffs:Prentice-Hall.
Levitt,S.D.1997,“Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime.” The American Economic Review 87(3).
Lin,W.2007,“Delinquency among Chinese Adolescents:Modeling Sources of Frustration and Gender Differences.” Deviant Behavior 28(5).
Moffitt,T.E.1993,“Adolescence-limited and Life-course-persistent Antisocial Behavior:A Developmental Taxonomy.” Psychological Review 100(4).
Nagin,D.S.1998,“Criminal Deterrence Research at the Outset of the Twenty-First Century.” Crime & Justice 23(23).
Stolzenberg,L.& S.J.Dalessio 1997,“Three Strikes and You’re Out:The Impact of California’s New Mandatory Sentencing Law on Serious Crime Rates.” Crime & Delinquency 43(4).
Weng,X.,M.Ran & W.H.Chui 2016,“Juvenile Delinquency in Chinese Adolescents:An Ecological Review of the Literature.” Aggression and Violent Behavior 31.
Zimring,F.E.,G.Hawkins & S.Kamin 2003,“Punishment and Democracy:Three Strikes and You’re out in California.” Oxford University Press (8).
陈刚,2016,《劳动力迁移、亲子分离与青少年犯罪》,《青年研究》第2期。
陈刚、李树,2011,《教育对犯罪率的影响研究》,《中国人口科学》第3期。
陈刚、李树、陈屹立,2010,《中国犯罪治理的财政支出偏向:选择“大棒”还是“胡萝卜”?》,《南开经济研究》第2期。
陈强,2014,《高级计量经济学及Stata应用》(第二版),北京:高等教育出版社。
陈硕,2012,《转型期中国的犯罪治理政策:堵还是疏?》,《经济学(季刊)》第2期。
陈硕、刘飞,2013,《中国转型期犯罪的社会成本估算》,《世界经济文汇》第3期。
陈硕、章元,2014,《治乱无需重典:转型期中国刑事政策效果分析》,《经济学(季刊)》第4期。
陈屹立、张卫国,2010,《惩罚对犯罪的威慑效应:基于中国数据的实证研究》,《南方经济》第8期。
胡联合、胡鞍钢,2006,《对转型期中国犯罪实际发案情况的估测》,《社会科学》第1期。
金小红、陈明香,2013,《社会管理创新背景下城市流动青少年犯罪治理研究——基于社会融合的视角》,《社会主义研究》第2期。
金小红、李震,2013,《流动青少年犯罪归因的实证研究——以湖北省为例》,《教育研究与实验》第4期。
刘能,2003,《越轨社会学视角下的青少年犯罪》,《青年研究》第11期。
刘亚娜,2012,《青少年犯罪预防视阈下的网络游戏监管制度研究》,《社会科学战线》第8期。
毛颖,2011,《民生支出有助于减低刑事犯罪率吗?——来自中国(1995-2008)省级面板数据的证据》,《南开经济研究》第4期。
屈智勇、邹泓,2009,《家庭环境、父母监控、自我控制与青少年犯罪》,《心理科学》第2期。
屈智勇、邹泓、段晓英,2006,《自我控制、价值观与青少年犯罪的关系》,《青年研究》第5期。
魏占军,2017,《立案标准调整与犯罪治理的实证研究》,《世界经济文汇》第2期。
肖伟,2007,《超越传统模式的局限——对刑事和解引入青少年犯罪治理领域的考察》,《青年研究》第1期。
曾培芳,2007,《我国青少年犯罪预防和矫正理论与实践模式的整合——以社会控制与社会支持为视角》,《江西社会科学》第12期。
中华人民共和国国家统计局,2016,《中国统计年鉴》(2016)(http://data.cnki.net/Yearbook/Single/N2017030066)。
Agnew,R.1992,“Foundation for a General Strain Theory of Crime and Delinquency.” Criminology 30(1).
Becker,G.S.1968,“Crime and Punishment:An Economic Approach.” Journal of Political Economy 76.
Berg,M.T.,E.A.Stewart,R.K.Brunson & R.L.Simons 2012,“Neighborhood Cultural Heterogeneity and Adolescent Violence.” Journal of Quantitative Criminology 28(3).
Deng,S.& M.W.Roosa 2007,“Family Influences on Adolescent Delinquent Behaviors:Applying the Social Development Model to A Chinese Sample.” American Journal of Community Psychology 40(3-4).
Ehrlich,I.1973,“Participation in Illegitimate Activities:A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation.” Journal of Political Economy 81(3).
Forst,B.E.1976,“Participation in Illegitimate Activities:Further Empirical Findings.” Policy Analysis 2(3).
Gottfredson,M.R.& T.Hirschi 1990,A General Theory of Crime.Stanford:Stanford University Press.
Hirschi,T.1969,“Causes Of Delinquency.” Berkeley:University of California Press.
Humphries,D.& D.Wallace 1980,“Capitalist Accumulation and Urban Crime,1950-1971.” Social Problems 28(2).
Jacob,H.& M.J.Rich 1981,“Effects of the Police on Crime:A Second Look.” Law & Society Review 1(15).
Lemert,E.1972,Human Deviance,Social Problems,and Social Control.Englewood Cliffs:Prentice-Hall.
Levitt,S.D.1997,“Using Electoral Cycles in Police Hiring to Estimate the Effect of Police on Crime.” The American Economic Review 87(3).
Lin,W.2007,“Delinquency among Chinese Adolescents:Modeling Sources of Frustration and Gender Differences.” Deviant Behavior 28(5).
Moffitt,T.E.1993,“Adolescence-limited and Life-course-persistent Antisocial Behavior:A Developmental Taxonomy.” Psychological Review 100(4).
Nagin,D.S.1998,“Criminal Deterrence Research at the Outset of the Twenty-First Century.” Crime & Justice 23(23).
Stolzenberg,L.& S.J.Dalessio 1997,“Three Strikes and You’re Out:The Impact of California’s New Mandatory Sentencing Law on Serious Crime Rates.” Crime & Delinquency 43(4).
Weng,X.,M.Ran & W.H.Chui 2016,“Juvenile Delinquency in Chinese Adolescents:An Ecological Review of the Literature.” Aggression and Violent Behavior 31.
Zimring,F.E.,G.Hawkins & S.Kamin 2003,“Punishment and Democracy:Three Strikes and You’re out in California.” Oxford University Press (8).