国家级贫困县的设立推动了当地经济发展吗?——基于PSM-DID方法的实证研究
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摘要
设立国家级贫困县是中国减贫的一项重要政策,由来已久。然而,文献对于国家级贫困县的设立是否促进了当地经济发展这一问题并没有一致的结论。本文采用2005~2015年中国993个县的面板数据,利用倾向得分匹配—双重差分法研究了国家级贫困县的设立对当地经济发展的影响。实证结果表明:第一,国家级贫困县的设立对当地经济发展具有显著且持续的推动作用,而且国家级贫困县设立越久,推动作用越大,这一结论在进行稳健性检验后仍然成立。第二,国家级贫困县的设立主要通过优化产业结构和提高固定资产投资水平的方式促进了当地经济发展。针对上述研究结论,本文进一步说明了其政策含义。
The establishment of national poverty-stricken counties is a long-standing policy for China's poverty reduction campaign. However, no consensus exists in the literature on whether the establishment of national poverty-stricken counties has promoted local economic development. This article uses panel data collected from 993 counties in China from 2005 to 2015 to study the impact of the designation of these counties on local economic development, applying PSM-DID methods. The empirical results show that, firstly, the establishment of national poverty-stricken counties has a significant and long-lasting role in promoting local economic development. Moreover, the longer the national poverty-stricken counties are established, the greater the impact is. The conclusion is established to robust tests. Secondly, the establishment of national poverty-stricken counties mainly promotes local economic development by optimizing the industrial structure and raising the level of investment in fixed assets. Finally, the study concludes with a number of policy implications.
The establishment of national poverty-stricken counties is a long-standing policy for China's poverty reduction campaign. However, no consensus exists in the literature on whether the establishment of national poverty-stricken counties has promoted local economic development. This article uses panel data collected from 993 counties in China from 2005 to 2015 to study the impact of the designation of these counties on local economic development, applying PSM-DID methods. The empirical results show that, firstly, the establishment of national poverty-stricken counties has a significant and long-lasting role in promoting local economic development. Moreover, the longer the national poverty-stricken counties are established, the greater the impact is. The conclusion is established to robust tests. Secondly, the establishment of national poverty-stricken counties mainly promotes local economic development by optimizing the industrial structure and raising the level of investment in fixed assets. Finally, the study concludes with a number of policy implications.
引文
1.陈刚,2012:《法官异地交流与司法效率--来自高院院长的经验证据》,《经济学(季刊)》第4期。
2.范子英、田彬彬,2013:《税收竞争、税收执法与企业避税》,《经济研究》第9期。
3.郭君平、荆林波、张斌,2016:《国家级贫困县“帽子”的“棘轮效应”--基于全国2073个区县的实证研究》,《中国农业大学学报(社会科学版)》第4期。
4.赖玥、成天柱,2014:《财政扶贫的效率损失--基于财政激励视角的县级面板数据分析》,《经济问题》第5期。
5.李文、汪三贵,2004:《中央扶贫资金的分配及影响因素分析》,《中国农村经济》第8期。
6.刘冬梅,2001:《中国政府开发式扶贫资金投放效果的实证研究》,《管理世界》第6期。
7.刘瑞明、赵仁杰,2015:《国家高新区推动了地区经济发展吗?--基于双重差分方法的验证》,《管理世界》第8期。
8.帅传敏、梁尚昆、刘松,2008:《国家扶贫开发重点县投入绩效的实证分析》,《经济问题》第6期。
9.王艺敏、刘志红,2016:《大型公共支出项目的政策效果评估--以“八七扶贫攻坚计划”为例》,《财贸经济》第1期。
10.张彬斌,2013:《新时期政策扶贫:目标选择和农民增收》,《经济学(季刊)》第3期。
11.张琦、冯丹萌,2016:《我国减贫实践探索及其理论创新:1978~2016年》,《改革》第4期。
12.张新伟,1999:《扶贫政策低效性与市场化反贫困思路探寻》,《中国农村经济》第2期。
13.Elvidge,C.D.,P.C.Sutton,T.Ghosh,B.T.Tuttle,K.E.Baugh,B.Bhaduri,and E.Bright,2009,“A Global Poverty Map Derived from Satellite Data”,Computers&Geosciences,35(8):1652-1660.
14.Heckman,J.J.,H.Ichimura,and P.E.Todd,1997,“Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator:Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme”,The Reviews of Economics Studies,64(4):605-654.
15.Heckman,J.J.,H.Ichimura,and P.E.Todd,1998,“Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator”,The Reviews of Economics Studies,65(2):261-294.
16.Park,A.,S.Wang,and G.Wu,2002,“Regional Poverty Targeting in China”,Journal of Public Economics,86(1):123-153.
(1)http://tongji.cnki.net/kns55/index.aspx。
(1)http://db.cei.cn/page/Login.aspx。
(2)http://www.gtarsc.com/SingleT able/DataB aseI nfo?nodeid=19257。
2.范子英、田彬彬,2013:《税收竞争、税收执法与企业避税》,《经济研究》第9期。
3.郭君平、荆林波、张斌,2016:《国家级贫困县“帽子”的“棘轮效应”--基于全国2073个区县的实证研究》,《中国农业大学学报(社会科学版)》第4期。
4.赖玥、成天柱,2014:《财政扶贫的效率损失--基于财政激励视角的县级面板数据分析》,《经济问题》第5期。
5.李文、汪三贵,2004:《中央扶贫资金的分配及影响因素分析》,《中国农村经济》第8期。
6.刘冬梅,2001:《中国政府开发式扶贫资金投放效果的实证研究》,《管理世界》第6期。
7.刘瑞明、赵仁杰,2015:《国家高新区推动了地区经济发展吗?--基于双重差分方法的验证》,《管理世界》第8期。
8.帅传敏、梁尚昆、刘松,2008:《国家扶贫开发重点县投入绩效的实证分析》,《经济问题》第6期。
9.王艺敏、刘志红,2016:《大型公共支出项目的政策效果评估--以“八七扶贫攻坚计划”为例》,《财贸经济》第1期。
10.张彬斌,2013:《新时期政策扶贫:目标选择和农民增收》,《经济学(季刊)》第3期。
11.张琦、冯丹萌,2016:《我国减贫实践探索及其理论创新:1978~2016年》,《改革》第4期。
12.张新伟,1999:《扶贫政策低效性与市场化反贫困思路探寻》,《中国农村经济》第2期。
13.Elvidge,C.D.,P.C.Sutton,T.Ghosh,B.T.Tuttle,K.E.Baugh,B.Bhaduri,and E.Bright,2009,“A Global Poverty Map Derived from Satellite Data”,Computers&Geosciences,35(8):1652-1660.
14.Heckman,J.J.,H.Ichimura,and P.E.Todd,1997,“Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator:Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme”,The Reviews of Economics Studies,64(4):605-654.
15.Heckman,J.J.,H.Ichimura,and P.E.Todd,1998,“Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator”,The Reviews of Economics Studies,65(2):261-294.
16.Park,A.,S.Wang,and G.Wu,2002,“Regional Poverty Targeting in China”,Journal of Public Economics,86(1):123-153.
(1)http://tongji.cnki.net/kns55/index.aspx。
(1)http://db.cei.cn/page/Login.aspx。
(2)http://www.gtarsc.com/SingleT able/DataB aseI nfo?nodeid=19257。