土地利用碳排放地域差异下减排责任分摊研究——以武汉城市圈为例
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摘要
碳减排责任分摊是制定碳减排政策的基础,亦是完善碳交易市场体系的重要一环。为合理明确各区域碳减排责任,从土地利用碳排放地域差异视角入手,兼顾公平与效率原则,构建IFCAM模型,尝试在2020年武汉城市圈碳减排目标下划分各县区的碳减排责任,并对其进行可行性检验,以期为武汉城市圈及相关区域的碳减排责任分摊提供参考。研究发现:(1)武汉城市圈核心城市土地利用碳排放占城市圈的比例超过70%,且整体呈现出核心-外围递减的分布,各地区差异较明显;(2)3E分摊模型虽然提高了城市圈碳排放的公平性,但整体碳排放效率仅为0.54,相比2015年降低了30.77%,需进一步完善;(3)IFCAM模型在维持整体效率为1且不衰减的基础上,兼顾了3E公平原则,使经济发展水平较高地区的碳减排压力减小,而增加经济发展效率较低地区的碳减排压力;(4)检验结果显示基于IFCAM模型的2020年武汉城市圈各县市碳排放强度下降幅度均达标,整体平均碳排放强度下降幅度为19.27%,超过湖北省政府分配的整体18.78%的目标,且分摊结果变异系数较小,整体平均碳排放效率提升,有效的解决了公平和效率的分配问题,具有一定的可行性和科学性。
The liability sharing of carbon emission reduction is the foundation to formulate the carbon emission reduction policy and also the important process to perfect the carbon trading market system. In order to define the liability of regional carbon emission reduction in a reasonable manager, the IFCAM was constructed by beginning with the regional difference of carbon emission in land use and giving considerations to the principles of fairness and efficiency. The liability of carbon emission reduction in each county and district was divided under the carbon emission reduction targets of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration in 2020. And it was conducted the feasibility test, hoping to provide reference for liability sharing of carbon emission reduction in Wuhan Urban Agglomeration and relevant areas. The findings showed that:(1)The proportion of carbon emission of urban land use in Wuhan megalopolis exceeds 70%, showing the core-peripheral diminishing distribution. Each region had the obvious difference;(2)Even if 3 D apportion model improved fairness of carbon emission in the megalopolis, the overall carbon emission efficiency was only 0.54, which was reduced by 30.77% comparing with 2015, thus it should be further improved;(3)The entire efficiency maintained by the IFCAM was 1, which gave considerations to 3 E equity principle on the basis of no decay, thus areas with the higher economic development would reduce the pressure of carbon emission reduction, while areas with the lower economic development would increase the pressure of carbon emission reduction;(4)The inspection findings indicated that based on the IFCAM, the decrease amplitude of carbon emission intensity in each county and city of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration in 2020 could reach the standard. The decrease amplitude of average carbon emission intensity was 19.27%, which exceeding the target(18.78%) distributed by the Hubei Provincial Government. Moreover, the variable coefficient of apportion results was smaller and average carbon emission efficiency was enhanced. The distribution of fairness and efficiency could be solved effectively, showing the feasibility and scientificity.
The liability sharing of carbon emission reduction is the foundation to formulate the carbon emission reduction policy and also the important process to perfect the carbon trading market system. In order to define the liability of regional carbon emission reduction in a reasonable manager, the IFCAM was constructed by beginning with the regional difference of carbon emission in land use and giving considerations to the principles of fairness and efficiency. The liability of carbon emission reduction in each county and district was divided under the carbon emission reduction targets of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration in 2020. And it was conducted the feasibility test, hoping to provide reference for liability sharing of carbon emission reduction in Wuhan Urban Agglomeration and relevant areas. The findings showed that:(1)The proportion of carbon emission of urban land use in Wuhan megalopolis exceeds 70%, showing the core-peripheral diminishing distribution. Each region had the obvious difference;(2)Even if 3 D apportion model improved fairness of carbon emission in the megalopolis, the overall carbon emission efficiency was only 0.54, which was reduced by 30.77% comparing with 2015, thus it should be further improved;(3)The entire efficiency maintained by the IFCAM was 1, which gave considerations to 3 E equity principle on the basis of no decay, thus areas with the higher economic development would reduce the pressure of carbon emission reduction, while areas with the lower economic development would increase the pressure of carbon emission reduction;(4)The inspection findings indicated that based on the IFCAM, the decrease amplitude of carbon emission intensity in each county and city of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration in 2020 could reach the standard. The decrease amplitude of average carbon emission intensity was 19.27%, which exceeding the target(18.78%) distributed by the Hubei Provincial Government. Moreover, the variable coefficient of apportion results was smaller and average carbon emission efficiency was enhanced. The distribution of fairness and efficiency could be solved effectively, showing the feasibility and scientificity.
引文
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[2] LIN B,SUN C.Evaluating carbon dioxide emissions in international trade of China[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(1):613-621.
[3] 徐盈之,邹芳.基于投入产出分析法的我国各产业部门碳减排责任研究[J].产业经济研究,2010(5):27-35.XU Y Z,ZHOU F.Carbon reduction responsibility of China’s industries based on the input-output analysis[J].Industrial Economics Research,2010(5):27-35.
[4] 汪臻,赵定涛.开放经济下区域间碳减排责任分摊研究[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2012,33(7):84-89.WANG Z,ZHAO D T.The allocation of inter-regional carbon reduction burden in the open economy[J].Science of Science and Management of S.& T.,2012,33(7):84-89.
[5] LENZEN M.Aggregation (in-)variance of shared responsibility:A case study of Australia[J].Ecological Economics,2007,64(1):19-24.
[6] RAUPACH M R,DAVIS S J,PETERS G P,et al.Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions[J].Nature Climate Change,2014,4(10):873-879.
[7] EKANAYAKE P,MORIARTY P,HONNERY D.Equity and energy in global solutions to climate change[J].Energy for Sustainable Development,2015,26:72-78.
[8] YANG Y,CAI W J,WANG C,et al.Regional allocation of CO2 intensity reduction targets based on cluster analysis[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,2012,3(4):220-228.
[9] 王金南,蔡博峰,曹东,等.中国CO2排放总量控制区域分解方案研究[J].环境科学学报,2011,31(4):680-685.WANG J N,CAI B F,CAO D,et al.Scenario study on regional allocation of CO2 emissions allowance in China[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2011,31(4):680-685.
[10] 方恺,张琦峰,叶瑞克,等.巴黎协定生效下的中国省际碳排放权分配研究[J].环境科学学报,2018,38(3):1224-1234.FANG K,ZHANG Q F,YE R K,et al.Allocating China’s carbon emission allowance to the provincial quotas in the context of the Paris Agreement[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae,2018,38(3):1224-1234.
[11] 刘晓.基于公平与发展的中国省区碳排放配额分配研究[J].系统工程,2016(2):64-69.LIU X.The carbon emissions quota allocation research of Chinese provinces based on the justice and envelopment[J].Systems Engineering,2016(2):64-69.
[12] 刘春兰,蔡博峰,陈操操,等.中国碳减排目标的地区分解方法研究述评[J].地理科学,2013,33(9):1089-1096.LIU C L,CAI B F,CHEN C C,et al.Review of carbon mitigation targets allocation in China.[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2013,33(9):1089-1096.
[13] ZHOU Y,LIANG D,XING X.Environmental efficiency of industrial sectors in China:An improved weighted SBM model[J].Mathematical & Computer Modelling,2013,58(5-6):990-999.
[14] WANG K,ZHANG X,WEI Y M,et al.Regional allocation of CO2 emissions allowance over provinces in China by 2020[J].Energy Policy,2013,54(3):214-229.
[15] 宋杰鲲,梁璐璐,牛丹平.中国省域碳排放权分配——基于环境FCAM[J].技术经济,2017,36(10):100-106.SONG J K,LIANG L L,NIU D P.Allocation of carbon emission permits among provinces in China:Based on environmental FCAM[J].Technology Economics,2017,36(10):100-106.
[16] 武佳倩,侯胜杰,关忠诚.中国省际能源环境效率评价及碳减排责任分摊[J].系统科学与数学,2018(4).WU J J,HOU S J,GUAN Z C.Energy environment efficiency evaluation and the carbon reduction responsibility allocation across Chinese provinces[J].Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences,2018(4).
[17] 夏炎,吴洁.中国碳生产率减排目标分配机制研究——基于不同环境责任界定视角[J].管理评论,2018,30(5):137-147.XIA Y,WU J.Provincial carbon productivity target allocation plan in China:Producer and consumer responsibility[J].Management Review,2018,30(5):137-147.
[18] MIAO Z,GENG Y,SHENG J.Efficient allocation of CO2 emissions in China:A zero sum gains data envelopment model[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2016,112:4144-4150.
[19] DU J,COOK W D,LIANG L,et al.Fixed cost and resource allocation based on DEA cross-efficiency[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2014,235(1):206-214.
[20] YANG M,LI Y,CHEN Y,et al.An equilibrium efficiency frontier data envelopment analysis approach for evaluating decision-making units with fixed-sum outputs[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2014,239(2):479-489.
[21] 陈星.基于土地利用碳排放效率的区域碳权分配研究——以湖北省为例[D].武汉:华中农业大学,2017.CHEN X.Reserach on regional carbon emission rights allocation based on land utilization carbon emission efficiency-in Hubei Province as an example.[D].Wuhan:Huazhong Agricultural University,2017.
[22] 王勇,程瑜,杨光春,等.2020和2030年碳强度目标约束下中国碳排放权的省区分解[J].中国环境科学,2018,38(08):3180-3188.WANG Y,CHENG Y,YANG G C,et al.Provincial decomposition of China’s carbon emission rights under the constraint of 2020 and 2030 carbon intensity targets[J].China Environmental Science,2018,38(08):3180-3188.
[23] YI W J,ZOU L L,GUO J,et al.How can China reach its CO2 intensity reduction targets by 2020 A regional allocation based on equity and development[J].Energy Policy,2011,39(5):2407-2415.
[24] 马海良,张红艳,吴凤平.基于情景分析法的中国碳排放分配预测研究[J].软科学,2016,30(10):75-78.MA H L,ZHANG H Y,WU F P.Research on the prediction of carbon emissions distribution based on simulation analysis[J].Soft Science,2016,30(10):75-78.
[25] 余光英,员开奇.武汉城市圈土地利用碳排放效率评价研究[J].资源开发与市场,2014,30(7):801-805.YU G Y,YUAN K Q.Study on land-use carbon emissions efficiency evaluation of Wuhan Urban Agglomeration[J].Resource Development & Market,2014,30(7):801-805.
[26] 张晓梅,庄贵阳.中国省际区域碳减排差异问题的研究进展[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2015,25(2):135-143.ZHANG X M,ZHUANG G Y.China provincial carbon emissions differences research progress and prospect[J].China Population,Resources and Environment,2015,25(2):135-143.
[27] 张俊峰,张安录,董捷.武汉城市圈土地利用碳排放效应分析及因素分解研究[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(5):595-602.ZHANG J F,ZHANG A L,DONG J.Carbon emission effect of land use and influencing factors decomposition of carbon emission in Wuhan Urban Agglomeration[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2014,23(5):595-602.
[28] 李克让.土地利用变化和温室气体净排放与陆地生态系统碳循环[M].气象出版社,2002.LI K R.Land use change and net greenhouse gas emissions and terrestrial ecosystem carbon cycle[M].China Meteorological Press,2002.
[29] 王桂波,南灵.陕西省土地利用碳排放效应时空差异分析[J].资源与产业,2012,14(1):124-130.WANG G B,NAN L.Temporal-spatial variance of carbon emission effect in Shaanxi’s land use.[J].Resources & Industries,2012,14(1):124-130.
[30] 陶在朴.生态包袱与生态足迹:可持续发展的重量及面积观念[M].经济科学出版社,2003.TAO Z P.Ecological burden and ecological footprint:The concept of weight and area for sustainable development[M].Economic Science Press,2003.
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