“滥币陷阱”与国际货币体系的不稳定性
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摘要
国际货币体系已逐步演变成"二元"本位的双寡头结构。然而,经济活动的金融化使得格雷欣法则的约束条件被削弱,允许欧元和美元"竞相滥发",导致国际货币体系陷入"滥币陷阱"的困境。"滥币陷阱"机制孕育着流动性无约束地放大,引起巨量资金全球性泛滥式流动,加剧了国际宏观经济的波动。这是"二元"本位国际货币体系内含不稳定性的核心机制,也是未来改革的关键所在。
The international monetary system has entered the era of "duality" standard currency. However, the financialization of economic activities has weakened the Gresham's law, allowing the over-issue of both Euro and US dollar, thus led the international monetary system fall into the"excessive currency trap". This trap mechanism breeds the unrestricted enlargement of liquidity, which accelerates the flow of massive funds around the world. This is the root of the global macroeconomic volatility,and is also the key factor to the reform of the international monetary system.
The international monetary system has entered the era of "duality" standard currency. However, the financialization of economic activities has weakened the Gresham's law, allowing the over-issue of both Euro and US dollar, thus led the international monetary system fall into the"excessive currency trap". This trap mechanism breeds the unrestricted enlargement of liquidity, which accelerates the flow of massive funds around the world. This is the root of the global macroeconomic volatility,and is also the key factor to the reform of the international monetary system.
引文
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[19]陆磊,李宏瑾.纳入SDR后的人民币国际化与国际货币体系改革:基于货币功能和储备货币供求的视角[J].国际经济评论,2016,(3).
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[2]张谊浩,陈柳钦.国际货币体系的内生性不稳定分析[J].现代国际关系,2003,(12).
[3]EICHENGREEN&FLANDREAU.The Rise and Fall of the Dollar,or When did the Dollar Replace Sterling as the Lead ing Reserve Currency?[R].NBER Working Paper,NO.14154,July-2008.
[4]伯特·蒙代尔,王娜.论国际货币体系的重建--基于创立世界货币的设想[J].厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版)2012,(1).
[5]JEANNE,O,R.RANCIERE.The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries[J].The Economic Journal,2011.
[6]MAURICE OBSTFELD.The International Monetary System Living with Asymmetry[R].NBER Working Paper Series2014.
[7]ALAN M.TAYLOR.The Future of International Liquidity and the Role of China[R].NBER Working Paper,No.18771,2013
[8]BECK&RAHBARI.Optimal Reserve Composition in the Presence of Sudden Stops:The Euro and the Dollar as Safe Ha ven Currencies[R].ECB Working Paper,NO.916,Oct-2008.
[9][日]福井博夫.国际金融与经营环境[M].北京:中央编译出版社,2005.
[10]GREENWALD&STIGLITZ.A Modest Proposal For International Monetary Reform[R].Time for a Visible Hand,2010.
[11]何帆,张明.国际货币体系不稳定中的美元霸权因素[J].财经问题研究,2005,(7).
[12]余永定.国际货币体系改革和中国外汇储备资产保值[J].国际经济评论,2009,(3).
[13]刘骏民.决定中美经济未来差距的两个基本因素--虚拟经济视角下的大趋势[J].政治经济学评论,2014,(1).
[14]李秀辉.美元霸权与国际货币体系稳定--从中国推动SDR使用说起[J].当代经济管理,2016,(11).
[15]CHINN&FRANKEL.Why the Euro Will Rival the Dollar[J].International Finance,2008,Vol 11(1).
[16]陆磊,杨骏.流动性、一般均衡与金融稳定的“不可能三角”[J].金融研究,2016,(1).
[17]管涛,赵玉超,高铮.未竟的改革:后布雷顿森林时代的国际货币体系[J].国际金融研究,2014,(10).
[18]徐明棋.央行货币互换:对国际货币体系的影响[J].社会科学文摘,2016,(7).
[19]陆磊,李宏瑾.纳入SDR后的人民币国际化与国际货币体系改革:基于货币功能和储备货币供求的视角[J].国际经济评论,2016,(3).
[20]范小云,陈雷,王道平.人民币国际化与国际货币体系的稳定[J].世界经济,2014,(9).