印太战略与大欧亚:认知与应对
摘要
大欧亚和印太概念是近年国际政治中出现的重大现象,两个进程一个以欧亚大陆为依托,一个以印太大洋为纽带。两大进程的主体不同,理念不同,政治文化不同,意识形态原则不同,开放程度也不同,这使它们带有了某种系统性差异的特征。由此出现了把它们放入一个分析框架的必要,以此回答它们是否会形成体系以及是否会出现新两大体系对立的问题。由于内外因素的制约,不会再出现类似冷战时期的两大体系对立,但在新国际秩序建设之争的背景下,有可能形成某种"软体系"和它们之间的"软对立"。美国的印太战略有明显针对中国的性质。不过,印太进程有多个国家参与,内容多样,需要作出区分。中国反对印太战略的冷战思维和遏制中国的意图,但不应反对亚太和印度洋地区的联通,也不应反对相关国家的经济合作。印太进程很可能是长期过程,而不是短暂现象。它有其自然的动力,并不完全是人为的产物。印太进程也有某些优势条件,特别是在经济领域。中国可通过与印太进程参与国的双边或小多边合作影响印太进程。从大战略的角度,中俄在大欧亚进程中的合作不仅有利于中国,有利于大欧亚进程,也有助于缓解俄罗斯的战略压力,因而符合共同的战略利益。
Great Eurasia and Indo-Pacific are two significant conceptions that emerge in international politics in the past two years. The first relies on the Eurasian continent,and the second is bounded by the Indo-Pacific oceans. These two major strategies are differentiated in terms of subject,concept,political culture,ideological principles,and degree of openness,namely,they have systematic differences. Due to the constraints of internal and external factors,there will be no more serious confrontation like the Cold War. However,under the construction of the new international order,the international society will probably become a kind of "soft system"and the "soft opposition" inside the system. The Indo-Pacific strategy raised by the US is obviously against China. However,the Indo-Pacific strategy involves multiple countries and diversified content which needs to be differentiated. China opposes the Cold War mentality of India-Pacific strategy and its intention to contain China,but we do not oppose the connectivity of the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean regions, nor oppose the economic cooperation among the related countries. The Indo-Pacific strategy is very likely to be a long-term process rather than a short-lived phenomenon. It is not entirely a man-made product but with the natural motivation. The Indo-Pacific process also has certain advantages, especially in the economic field. China could influence the Indo-Pacific process through participating in bilateral or small multilateral cooperation. From the perspective of grand strategy,the cooperation between China and Russia in the Greater Eurasia strategy is not only beneficial to China,but also conducive to the process of the Greater Eurasia. It also helps to alleviate Russia 's strategic pressure and thus accords with the common strategic interests of the two countries.
Great Eurasia and Indo-Pacific are two significant conceptions that emerge in international politics in the past two years. The first relies on the Eurasian continent,and the second is bounded by the Indo-Pacific oceans. These two major strategies are differentiated in terms of subject,concept,political culture,ideological principles,and degree of openness,namely,they have systematic differences. Due to the constraints of internal and external factors,there will be no more serious confrontation like the Cold War. However,under the construction of the new international order,the international society will probably become a kind of "soft system"and the "soft opposition" inside the system. The Indo-Pacific strategy raised by the US is obviously against China. However,the Indo-Pacific strategy involves multiple countries and diversified content which needs to be differentiated. China opposes the Cold War mentality of India-Pacific strategy and its intention to contain China,but we do not oppose the connectivity of the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean regions, nor oppose the economic cooperation among the related countries. The Indo-Pacific strategy is very likely to be a long-term process rather than a short-lived phenomenon. It is not entirely a man-made product but with the natural motivation. The Indo-Pacific process also has certain advantages, especially in the economic field. China could influence the Indo-Pacific process through participating in bilateral or small multilateral cooperation. From the perspective of grand strategy,the cooperation between China and Russia in the Greater Eurasia strategy is not only beneficial to China,but also conducive to the process of the Greater Eurasia. It also helps to alleviate Russia 's strategic pressure and thus accords with the common strategic interests of the two countries.
引文
(1)这是日本首相安倍2016年8月在内罗毕提出的,在此之前,日本已进行了10年左右的酝酿准备。见吴怀中:《安倍政府印太战略即中国的应对》,载《现代国际关系》2018年第1期。
(2)Priority Policy for Development Cooperation 2017FY.International Cooperation Bureau,MOFA,April 2017.
(3)葛建华:《日本构建“印太战略”的主要动因》,2018-02-06,http://www.rbxk.org/Show/1406 itemid=43959
(4)《印太“战略”变“构想”?日媒:中日关系改善避免引起中国误会》,2018.11.14.https://news.china.com/domestic/945/20181114/34420296.html
(5)林民旺:《一带一路与南亚地缘政治》,世界知识出版社2018年版,第204、213页。
(6)周方银、王婉:《澳大利亚视角下的印太战略及中国的应对》,载《现代国际关系》2018年第1期。
(7)Alex N.Wong,Deputy Assistant Secretary,Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs,Briefing on The Indo-Pacific Strategy,April 2,2018.https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/04/280134.htm
(8)Defense Secretary Mattis in Asia:The Singapore Speech,By defense.Info Media Team,06/06/2018.https://defense.info/video-of-the-week/defense-secretary-mattis-in-asia-the-singapore-speech/
(9)National Security Strategy of the United States of America,December 2017.https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf
(10)Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy.https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf
(11)Defense Secretary Mattis in Asia:The Singapore Speech,By defense.Info Media Team,06/06/2018.https://defense.info/video-of-the-week/defense-secretary-mattis-in-asia-the-singapore-speech/
(12)Michael R.Pompeo,Secretary of State,Remarks on “America’s Indo-Pacific Economic Vision”,July 30,2018.https://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2018/07/284722.htm
(13)Barker Gale,Program Manager and Research Associate,Alliances and American Leadership Project,The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and the Maritime Silk Road Initiative,April 2,2018.https://www.csis.org/analysis/quadrilateral-security-dialogue-and-maritime-silk-road-initiative
(14)张洁:《美日印澳“四边对话”与亚太地区秩序的重构》,2018-10-16,http://www.sohu.com/a/259936825_619333
(15)Дмитрий Мосяков,Мы вновь идем к борьбе двух систем 30 октября 2018.http://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/analytics/my-vnov-idem-k-borbe-dvukh-sistem/
(16)Zhao Minghao,The “Indo-Pacific Strategy” and China-US Geopolitical Competition,Aug 21,2018.https://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/the-indo-pacific-strategy-and-china-us-geopolitical-competition
(17)Первая встреча министров иностранных дел диалога Индия-Центральная Азия.В Самарканде прошла встреча глав МИД "Индия-ЦА" с участием Афганистана,13.01.2019 .https://tj.sputniknews.ru/asia/20190113/1027958428/india-central-asia-afghanistan-samarkand-vstrecha-glavy-mid.html
(18)Александр Рыбин,Иран пустил Индию в Центральную Азию,28.12.18.https://www.fergana.agency/articles/103941/
(19)Pepe Escobar,Great Game Rematch:Chinese,Russians Lead US in Struggle for Eurasian Dominance,06.02.2019.https://russia-insider.com/en/great-game-rematch-chinese-russians-lead-us-struggle-eurasian-dominance/ri26175 ct=t(Russia_Insider_Daily_Headlines11_21_2014)&mc_cid=1b24574b 90&mc_eid=820958ffa8
(20)Кортунов А.Воссоединение Хартленда:геополитическая химера или исторический шанс?该文作者寄给笔者的文章,即将发表。
(21)Nyshka Chandran,India’s Modi stresses vision for an inclusive Indo-Pacific,1 June 2018.https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/01/indias-modi-stresses-vision-for-an-inclusive-indo-pacific.html
(22)如有学者断言,印太是一个对中俄不具包容性的地缘政治概念。详见周方银、王婉:《澳大利亚视角下的印太战略及中国的应对》,载《现代国际关系》2018年第1期。
(23)俄罗斯国际事务委员会、瓦尔代俱乐部、俄罗斯战略研究所、俄罗斯科学院世界经济与国际关系研究所等都对印太战略和四边安全对话问题进行过讨论。
(24)这是俄罗斯学者卡拉加诺夫在2017年阿斯塔纳俱乐部年会发言中所说。
(25)Артём Лукин:Индо-Тихоокеанская стратегия Трампа,28 декабря 2017,http://russiancouncil.ru/blogs/dvfu/33964/
(26)Alexei Kupriyanov,The Indo-Pacific Region and Russia,14.11.2018,http://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-indo-pacific-region-and-russia/
(27)Андрей Кортунов,генеральный директор РСМД,Индо-Пацифика,или Сообщество единой судьбы,14.12.2018,http://expert.ru/2018/05/28/indo-patsifika-ili-soobschestvo-edinoj-sudbyi/
(28)Владимир Петровский,Химеры и реальности "Индо-Тихоокеанского партнерства",Международная жизнь,08.08.2018,https://interaffairs.ru/news/show/20316
(29)Максим Шитов,Индо-Тихоокеанская стратегия США и связанные с ней угрозы для безопасности КНР,31.01.2019.http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2019-01-31/1_1032_strategy.html
(2)Priority Policy for Development Cooperation 2017FY.International Cooperation Bureau,MOFA,April 2017.
(3)葛建华:《日本构建“印太战略”的主要动因》,2018-02-06,http://www.rbxk.org/Show/1406 itemid=43959
(4)《印太“战略”变“构想”?日媒:中日关系改善避免引起中国误会》,2018.11.14.https://news.china.com/domestic/945/20181114/34420296.html
(5)林民旺:《一带一路与南亚地缘政治》,世界知识出版社2018年版,第204、213页。
(6)周方银、王婉:《澳大利亚视角下的印太战略及中国的应对》,载《现代国际关系》2018年第1期。
(7)Alex N.Wong,Deputy Assistant Secretary,Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs,Briefing on The Indo-Pacific Strategy,April 2,2018.https://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2018/04/280134.htm
(8)Defense Secretary Mattis in Asia:The Singapore Speech,By defense.Info Media Team,06/06/2018.https://defense.info/video-of-the-week/defense-secretary-mattis-in-asia-the-singapore-speech/
(9)National Security Strategy of the United States of America,December 2017.https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf
(10)Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy.https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Documents/pubs/2018-National-Defense-Strategy-Summary.pdf
(11)Defense Secretary Mattis in Asia:The Singapore Speech,By defense.Info Media Team,06/06/2018.https://defense.info/video-of-the-week/defense-secretary-mattis-in-asia-the-singapore-speech/
(12)Michael R.Pompeo,Secretary of State,Remarks on “America’s Indo-Pacific Economic Vision”,July 30,2018.https://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2018/07/284722.htm
(13)Barker Gale,Program Manager and Research Associate,Alliances and American Leadership Project,The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and the Maritime Silk Road Initiative,April 2,2018.https://www.csis.org/analysis/quadrilateral-security-dialogue-and-maritime-silk-road-initiative
(14)张洁:《美日印澳“四边对话”与亚太地区秩序的重构》,2018-10-16,http://www.sohu.com/a/259936825_619333
(15)Дмитрий Мосяков,Мы вновь идем к борьбе двух систем 30 октября 2018.http://russiancouncil.ru/analytics-and-comments/analytics/my-vnov-idem-k-borbe-dvukh-sistem/
(16)Zhao Minghao,The “Indo-Pacific Strategy” and China-US Geopolitical Competition,Aug 21,2018.https://www.chinausfocus.com/foreign-policy/the-indo-pacific-strategy-and-china-us-geopolitical-competition
(17)Первая встреча министров иностранных дел диалога Индия-Центральная Азия.В Самарканде прошла встреча глав МИД "Индия-ЦА" с участием Афганистана,13.01.2019 .https://tj.sputniknews.ru/asia/20190113/1027958428/india-central-asia-afghanistan-samarkand-vstrecha-glavy-mid.html
(18)Александр Рыбин,Иран пустил Индию в Центральную Азию,28.12.18.https://www.fergana.agency/articles/103941/
(19)Pepe Escobar,Great Game Rematch:Chinese,Russians Lead US in Struggle for Eurasian Dominance,06.02.2019.https://russia-insider.com/en/great-game-rematch-chinese-russians-lead-us-struggle-eurasian-dominance/ri26175 ct=t(Russia_Insider_Daily_Headlines11_21_2014)&mc_cid=1b24574b 90&mc_eid=820958ffa8
(20)Кортунов А.Воссоединение Хартленда:геополитическая химера или исторический шанс?该文作者寄给笔者的文章,即将发表。
(21)Nyshka Chandran,India’s Modi stresses vision for an inclusive Indo-Pacific,1 June 2018.https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/01/indias-modi-stresses-vision-for-an-inclusive-indo-pacific.html
(22)如有学者断言,印太是一个对中俄不具包容性的地缘政治概念。详见周方银、王婉:《澳大利亚视角下的印太战略及中国的应对》,载《现代国际关系》2018年第1期。
(23)俄罗斯国际事务委员会、瓦尔代俱乐部、俄罗斯战略研究所、俄罗斯科学院世界经济与国际关系研究所等都对印太战略和四边安全对话问题进行过讨论。
(24)这是俄罗斯学者卡拉加诺夫在2017年阿斯塔纳俱乐部年会发言中所说。
(25)Артём Лукин:Индо-Тихоокеанская стратегия Трампа,28 декабря 2017,http://russiancouncil.ru/blogs/dvfu/33964/
(26)Alexei Kupriyanov,The Indo-Pacific Region and Russia,14.11.2018,http://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/the-indo-pacific-region-and-russia/
(27)Андрей Кортунов,генеральный директор РСМД,Индо-Пацифика,или Сообщество единой судьбы,14.12.2018,http://expert.ru/2018/05/28/indo-patsifika-ili-soobschestvo-edinoj-sudbyi/
(28)Владимир Петровский,Химеры и реальности "Индо-Тихоокеанского партнерства",Международная жизнь,08.08.2018,https://interaffairs.ru/news/show/20316
(29)Максим Шитов,Индо-Тихоокеанская стратегия США и связанные с ней угрозы для безопасности КНР,31.01.2019.http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2019-01-31/1_1032_strategy.html