土地价格与FDI的区位选择——基于空间杜宾模型的实证研究
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摘要
本文利用2003—2014年中国地级以上城市空间面板数据,同时构建地理距离权重和经济距离权重,运用空间杜宾模型考察了土地价格对城市吸引外商直接投资(FDI)的影响。研究结果表明:土地价格与城市FDI流入呈现一种非线性的倒U型关系,一定程度的土地价格上涨,对城市FDI流入具有正向影响,但影响呈边际递减特征,当土地价格超过一定水平时,土地价格的继续上涨将抑制城市FDI流入;城市间的FDI流入具有显著的空间相关性,一个城市的土地价格与其地理邻近城市FDI流入呈倒U型关系,但与其经济邻近城市的FDI流入呈U型关系,这意味着一定程度的城市土地价格上涨,将对与其地理邻近城市的FDI流入产生"挤进效应",而对与其经济邻近城市的FDI流入产生"挤出效应";城市地价的过度上涨,将对本城市及地理邻近城市的FDI流入产生负面影响,但有利于经济邻近城市的FDI流入。
Based on China's Prefecture-level city spatial panel data from 2003 to2014, this article builds the weights of the geographical distance and the economicdistance to examine the influence of land price on urban attracting FDI through the SpatialDurbin Model. The result shows a non-linear inverted U-shaped relationship between landprice and urban FDI inflow. Land price has a moderately positive, though marginal decrea-sing, effect on urban FDI inflow: when it comes to certain level, urban FDI will beblocked by the constant rise of land prices; there is a significant spatial correlation amongthe inflows of FDI of relevant cities. The urban land price shows an inverted U-shaped re-lation to FDI inflows of the cities nearby, while U-shaped relation to that of the cities insimilar economic situation, which means the increase of land price will somehow have asqueeze-in effect on FDI inflows in cities nearby, while a squeeze-out effect on that of thecities in similar economic situation. The excessive rise of land price in cities might affectFDI inflows of themselves as well as those cities nearby negatively, however it will favorthe inflow of FDI of those in similar situation economically.
Based on China's Prefecture-level city spatial panel data from 2003 to2014, this article builds the weights of the geographical distance and the economicdistance to examine the influence of land price on urban attracting FDI through the SpatialDurbin Model. The result shows a non-linear inverted U-shaped relationship between landprice and urban FDI inflow. Land price has a moderately positive, though marginal decrea-sing, effect on urban FDI inflow: when it comes to certain level, urban FDI will beblocked by the constant rise of land prices; there is a significant spatial correlation amongthe inflows of FDI of relevant cities. The urban land price shows an inverted U-shaped re-lation to FDI inflows of the cities nearby, while U-shaped relation to that of the cities insimilar economic situation, which means the increase of land price will somehow have asqueeze-in effect on FDI inflows in cities nearby, while a squeeze-out effect on that of thecities in similar economic situation. The excessive rise of land price in cities might affectFDI inflows of themselves as well as those cities nearby negatively, however it will favorthe inflow of FDI of those in similar situation economically.
引文
[1]何兴强,王利霞.中国FDI区位分布的空间效应研究[J].经济研究, 2008(11):137-150.
[2]孙浦阳,韩帅,靳舒晶.产业集聚对外商直接投资的影响分析——基于服务业与制造业的比较研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2012(9):40-57.
[3]周犀行,欧阳溥蔓.国内外市场潜力对FDI区位选择的影响研究[J].国际贸易问题, 2013(6):124-134.
[4]曾鹏,秦艳辉.城市行政级别、产业集聚对外商直接投资的影响[J].国际贸易问题, 2017(1):104-115.
[5]黄肖琦,柴敏.新经济地理学视角下的FDI区位选择——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析[J].管理世界, 2006(10):7-13.
[6]蒋伟,赖明勇.空间相关与外商直接投资区位决定——基于中国城市数据的空间计量分析[J].财贸研究,2009(6):1-6.
[7]陈平,欧燕.我国劳动力成本上升对FDI地区转移的影响——来自工业企业数据和FDI空间效应的证据[J].中山大学学报(社会科学版), 2011(2):185-191.
[8]马飒,黄建锋.劳动力成本上升削弱了中国的引资优势吗——基于跨国面板数据的经验分析[J].国际贸易问题, 2014(10):110-120.
[9]冯伟,浦正宁,徐康宁.中国吸引外资的劳动力优势是否可以持续[J].国际贸易问题, 2015(11):132-143.
[10]杨海生,聂海峰,徐现祥.我国FDI区位选择中的“第三方效应”——基于空间面板数据的实证研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2010(4):122-136.
[11]杨成钢,曾永明.空间不平衡、人口流动与外商直接投资的区域选择——中国1995—2010年省际空间面板数据分析[J].人口研究, 2014(6):25-39.
[12]田素华,杨烨超.FDI进入中国区位变动的决定因素:基于D-G模型的经验研究[J].世界经济, 2012(11):59-87.
[13]李婧,谭清美,白俊红.中国区域创新生产的空间计量分析——基于静态与动态空间面板模型的实证研究[J].管理世界, 2010(7):43-55.
[14]GLOBERMAN S, SHAPIRO D.Global Foreign Direct Investment Flows:The Role of Governance Infrastructure[J].World Development, 2002,30(11):1899-1919.
[15]Du J, LU Y, TAO Z.Economic Institutions and FDI Location Choice:Evidence From US Multinationals in China[J].Journal of Comparative Economics, 2008,36(3):412-429.
[16]GOODSPEED T, MARTINEZ-VAZQUEZ J, ZHANG L.Public Policies and FDI Location:Differences betweenDeveloping and Developed Countries[J].Finanzarchiv Public Finance Analysis, 2011,67(2):171-191.
[17]PROCHER V.Agglomeration Effects and The Location of FDI:Evidence from French First-time Movers[J].An-nals of Regional Science, 2011,46(2):295-312.
[18]HALVORSEN T.Size, Location and Agglomeration of Inward Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)in the UnitedStates[J].Regional Studies, 2012,46(5):669-682.
[19]YIN F, YE M.Location Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Services:Do Agglomeration Economies Mat-ter?[J].China-An International Journal, 2016,14(2):123-145.
[20]DANIELS J P, VON DER RUHR M.Transportation Costs and US Manufacturing FDI[J].Review of InternationalEconomics, 2014,22(2):299-309.
[21]MURTHY K V B, BHASIN N.The Impact of Bilateral Tax Treaties:A Multi-Country Analysis of FDI Inflows intoIndia[J].Journal of International Trade&Economic Development, 2015,24(6):751-766.
[22]CLEEVE E A, DEBRAH Y, YIHEYIS Z.Human Capital and FDI Inflow:An Assessment of the African Case[J].World Development, 2015,74:1-14.
[23]MORITA T, SUGAWARA K.Human Capital and FDI:Development Process of the Developing Country in An O-verlapping Generation Model[J]. Journal of International Trade&Economic Development, 2015, 24(7):922-946.
[24]SAILIKE N.Role of Human Capital on Regional Distribution of FDI in China:New Evidences[J].China EconomicReview, 2016(37):66-84.
[25]AZIZ O G, MISHRA A V.Determinants of FDI Inflows to Arab Economies[J].Journal of international Trade&E-conomic Development, 2016,25(3):325-356.
[26]BAILEY N, LI S.Cross-National Distance and FDI:The Moderating Role of Host Country Local Demand[J].Journal of International Management, 2015,21(4):267-276.
[27]LIN L, SUN W.Location Choice of FDI Firms and Environmental Regulation Reforms in China[J].Journal of Reg-ulatory Economics, 2016,50(2):207-232.
[28]DEVEREUX M P, GRIFFITH R.Taxes and The Location of Production:Evidence from A Panel of US Multina-tionals[J].Journal of Public Economics, 1998,68(3):335-367.
[29]VEGA S H, ELHORST J P.The SLX Model[J].Journal of Regional Science, 2015,55(3):339-363.
(1)数据来源于2016年《中国统计年鉴》。
(1)数据来源于中国城市地价动态监测网:http://www.landvalue.com.cn/。
(2)新华网:http://news.xinhuanet.com/local/2016-05/24/c_129008824.htm。
[2]孙浦阳,韩帅,靳舒晶.产业集聚对外商直接投资的影响分析——基于服务业与制造业的比较研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2012(9):40-57.
[3]周犀行,欧阳溥蔓.国内外市场潜力对FDI区位选择的影响研究[J].国际贸易问题, 2013(6):124-134.
[4]曾鹏,秦艳辉.城市行政级别、产业集聚对外商直接投资的影响[J].国际贸易问题, 2017(1):104-115.
[5]黄肖琦,柴敏.新经济地理学视角下的FDI区位选择——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析[J].管理世界, 2006(10):7-13.
[6]蒋伟,赖明勇.空间相关与外商直接投资区位决定——基于中国城市数据的空间计量分析[J].财贸研究,2009(6):1-6.
[7]陈平,欧燕.我国劳动力成本上升对FDI地区转移的影响——来自工业企业数据和FDI空间效应的证据[J].中山大学学报(社会科学版), 2011(2):185-191.
[8]马飒,黄建锋.劳动力成本上升削弱了中国的引资优势吗——基于跨国面板数据的经验分析[J].国际贸易问题, 2014(10):110-120.
[9]冯伟,浦正宁,徐康宁.中国吸引外资的劳动力优势是否可以持续[J].国际贸易问题, 2015(11):132-143.
[10]杨海生,聂海峰,徐现祥.我国FDI区位选择中的“第三方效应”——基于空间面板数据的实证研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2010(4):122-136.
[11]杨成钢,曾永明.空间不平衡、人口流动与外商直接投资的区域选择——中国1995—2010年省际空间面板数据分析[J].人口研究, 2014(6):25-39.
[12]田素华,杨烨超.FDI进入中国区位变动的决定因素:基于D-G模型的经验研究[J].世界经济, 2012(11):59-87.
[13]李婧,谭清美,白俊红.中国区域创新生产的空间计量分析——基于静态与动态空间面板模型的实证研究[J].管理世界, 2010(7):43-55.
[14]GLOBERMAN S, SHAPIRO D.Global Foreign Direct Investment Flows:The Role of Governance Infrastructure[J].World Development, 2002,30(11):1899-1919.
[15]Du J, LU Y, TAO Z.Economic Institutions and FDI Location Choice:Evidence From US Multinationals in China[J].Journal of Comparative Economics, 2008,36(3):412-429.
[16]GOODSPEED T, MARTINEZ-VAZQUEZ J, ZHANG L.Public Policies and FDI Location:Differences betweenDeveloping and Developed Countries[J].Finanzarchiv Public Finance Analysis, 2011,67(2):171-191.
[17]PROCHER V.Agglomeration Effects and The Location of FDI:Evidence from French First-time Movers[J].An-nals of Regional Science, 2011,46(2):295-312.
[18]HALVORSEN T.Size, Location and Agglomeration of Inward Foreign Direct Investment(FDI)in the UnitedStates[J].Regional Studies, 2012,46(5):669-682.
[19]YIN F, YE M.Location Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Services:Do Agglomeration Economies Mat-ter?[J].China-An International Journal, 2016,14(2):123-145.
[20]DANIELS J P, VON DER RUHR M.Transportation Costs and US Manufacturing FDI[J].Review of InternationalEconomics, 2014,22(2):299-309.
[21]MURTHY K V B, BHASIN N.The Impact of Bilateral Tax Treaties:A Multi-Country Analysis of FDI Inflows intoIndia[J].Journal of International Trade&Economic Development, 2015,24(6):751-766.
[22]CLEEVE E A, DEBRAH Y, YIHEYIS Z.Human Capital and FDI Inflow:An Assessment of the African Case[J].World Development, 2015,74:1-14.
[23]MORITA T, SUGAWARA K.Human Capital and FDI:Development Process of the Developing Country in An O-verlapping Generation Model[J]. Journal of International Trade&Economic Development, 2015, 24(7):922-946.
[24]SAILIKE N.Role of Human Capital on Regional Distribution of FDI in China:New Evidences[J].China EconomicReview, 2016(37):66-84.
[25]AZIZ O G, MISHRA A V.Determinants of FDI Inflows to Arab Economies[J].Journal of international Trade&E-conomic Development, 2016,25(3):325-356.
[26]BAILEY N, LI S.Cross-National Distance and FDI:The Moderating Role of Host Country Local Demand[J].Journal of International Management, 2015,21(4):267-276.
[27]LIN L, SUN W.Location Choice of FDI Firms and Environmental Regulation Reforms in China[J].Journal of Reg-ulatory Economics, 2016,50(2):207-232.
[28]DEVEREUX M P, GRIFFITH R.Taxes and The Location of Production:Evidence from A Panel of US Multina-tionals[J].Journal of Public Economics, 1998,68(3):335-367.
[29]VEGA S H, ELHORST J P.The SLX Model[J].Journal of Regional Science, 2015,55(3):339-363.
(1)数据来源于2016年《中国统计年鉴》。
(1)数据来源于中国城市地价动态监测网:http://www.landvalue.com.cn/。
(2)新华网:http://news.xinhuanet.com/local/2016-05/24/c_129008824.htm。