基于系统动力学的阿拉善"三生"用水系统演化模拟与调控
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摘要
"三生"用水系统是一个涉及多领域的复杂系统,而系统动力学适用于模拟区域用水系统演化态势。研究采用系统动力学方法,根据影响阿拉善各部门用水的众多因素,构建了"三生"用水系统模型。真实性检验和敏感性分析结果表明:调整模型中的敏感变量可实现对系统的调控。模拟结果说明未来15年内用水结构将发生变化,水资源供需矛盾突出;若供水不变,优先发展生态将会加重供水压力,约20%的农业用水和50%的工业用水无法得到满足;节水优化情景下水资源供需平衡,供水系统能提供0.7亿m~3多余水量用于生态建设并减少0.3亿m~3调水指标。在实施节水政策的前提下发展生态,有利于在现有调水政策下实现阿拉善"三生"用水协调和绿色发展。
The "production-living-ecological" water system is a complex system which involves many fields, and system dynamics is suitable for simulating water evolution, and is used to study the water system model. The results of validity test and sensitivity analysis show that the system can be regulated by adjusting the sensitive variables. The results show that the water structure will change in the next 15 years, and the contradiction between water supply and demand is prominent. If water supply remains unchanged, priority for ecological development will increase water supply pressure, and production water cannot be met. Water resources can be balanced by water-saving measures, the system water supply can satisfy the ecology and reduce the water supply index. On the premise of implementing water-saving policies, developing ecology is conducive to achieving the coordination of water consumption and green development of Alxa under the existing water diversion policies.
The "production-living-ecological" water system is a complex system which involves many fields, and system dynamics is suitable for simulating water evolution, and is used to study the water system model. The results of validity test and sensitivity analysis show that the system can be regulated by adjusting the sensitive variables. The results show that the water structure will change in the next 15 years, and the contradiction between water supply and demand is prominent. If water supply remains unchanged, priority for ecological development will increase water supply pressure, and production water cannot be met. Water resources can be balanced by water-saving measures, the system water supply can satisfy the ecology and reduce the water supply index. On the premise of implementing water-saving policies, developing ecology is conducive to achieving the coordination of water consumption and green development of Alxa under the existing water diversion policies.
引文
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[14]Zarghami M,Akbariyeh S.System dynamics modeling for complex urban water systems:Application to the city of Tabriz,Iran[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2012,60:99-106.
[15]Sharawat I,Dahiya R P,Dahiya R,Kumari S.System dynamics approach:A novel water resource management tool[J].International Journal of Environmental Research and Development,2014,4(4):297-302.
[16]刘昌明,王红瑞.浅析水资源与人口、经济和社会环境的关系[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(5):635-644.
[17]杨金帆,林文,高湘昀,等.基于系统动力学的内蒙古废水排放量预测分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2017,47(22):164-172.
[18]李锦秀,肖洪浪,任娟.阿拉善地区水资源与生态环境变化及其对策研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(11):56-61.
[19]张玲玲,高亮.多目标约束下区域水资源优化配置研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2014,25(4):16-19.
[2] 李广东,方创琳.城市生态-生产-生活空间功能定量识别与分析[J].地理学报,2016,71(1):49-65.
[3] 朱媛媛,余斌,曾菊新,等.国家限制开发区"生产-生活-生态"空间的优化:以湖北省五峰县为例[J].经济地理,2015,35(4):26-32.
[4] 樊杰,王亚飞,汤青,等.全国资源环境承载能力监测预警(2014版)学术思路与总体技术流程[J].地理科学,2015,35(1):1-10.
[5] 贺涛,童飞.需水胁迫下的流域"三生"用水系统演化分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2006,17(3):5-21.
[6] 王丽萍,王蕊,姜生斌,等.水资源系统多目标优化配置模型的研究及应用[J].华北电力大学学报,2007,34(4):32-37.
[7] 陈晓宏,陈永勤,赖国友.东江流域水资源优化配置研究[J].自然资源学报,2002,17(3):366-372.
[8] 许端阳,佟贺丰,李春蕾,等.耦合自然-人文因素的沙漠化动态系统动力学模型[J].中国沙漠,2015,35(2):267-275.
[9] 段春青,刘昌明,陈晓楠,等.区域水资源承载力概念及研究方法的探讨[J].地理学报,2010,65(1):82-90.
[10]陈晓楠,段春青,邱林,等.基于粒子群的大系统优化模型在灌区水资源优化配置中的应用[J].农业工程学报,2008,24(3):103-106.
[11]熊鹰,李静芝,蒋丁玲.基于仿真模拟的长株潭城市群水资源供需系统决策优化[J].地理学报,2013,68(9):1225-1239.
[12]何仁伟,刘邵权,刘运伟.基于系统动力学的中国西南岩溶区的水资源承载力-以贵州省毕节地区为例[J].地理科学,2011,31(11):1376-1382.
[13]王翠,杨广,何新林,等.基于系统动力学的水资源承载力研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2016(9):212-220.
[14]Zarghami M,Akbariyeh S.System dynamics modeling for complex urban water systems:Application to the city of Tabriz,Iran[J].Resources,Conservation and Recycling,2012,60:99-106.
[15]Sharawat I,Dahiya R P,Dahiya R,Kumari S.System dynamics approach:A novel water resource management tool[J].International Journal of Environmental Research and Development,2014,4(4):297-302.
[16]刘昌明,王红瑞.浅析水资源与人口、经济和社会环境的关系[J].自然资源学报,2003,18(5):635-644.
[17]杨金帆,林文,高湘昀,等.基于系统动力学的内蒙古废水排放量预测分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2017,47(22):164-172.
[18]李锦秀,肖洪浪,任娟.阿拉善地区水资源与生态环境变化及其对策研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2010,24(11):56-61.
[19]张玲玲,高亮.多目标约束下区域水资源优化配置研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2014,25(4):16-19.