“伊斯兰国”在阿富汗的渗透及其前景
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摘要
"伊斯兰国"在阿富汗的渗透经历了悄然崛起、迅速扩张和扩张停滞三个阶段。其活动特点也随之调整,从和平宣传招募转向暴力控制威慑。阿富汗政府治理缺失、安全力量不足、经济落后是"伊斯兰国"势力在其境内蔓延、扩张的根本原因。当然,"伊斯兰国"在阿富汗扩张的制约因素很多,主要有意识形态上的抵制、部落传统文化的对立以及阿富汗塔利班的牵制。目前,"伊斯兰国"呼罗珊分支已无力恢复到全盛期的规模,但其圣战萨拉菲思想的影响不容忽视,不能排除其可能进行战略北移,从阿富汗北部向中亚渗透。
The ISIS has experienced three stages of outreach in Afghanistan:the quiet emergency,rapid expansion and visible stagnancy.During its heyday,the ISIS Khorasan Province(ISKP)had shifted from seductive propaganda to bloody violence and killing in order to expand and consolidate its control.The absence of governance,weak national defend forces and underdeveloped economy provided fertile soil for ISIS’s emergence and dynamics in Afghanistan.However there are factors restraining its further expansion,such as Afghans’resistance against the Jihadi-Salafism,the contradiction between Pashtun tribal traditions and ISIS violent cultures,and fierce military attacks from Afghan Taliban.Although ISKP is declining in Afghanistan,its elimination is still not feasible and it may even resurge if the ground situation in Afghanistan gets much worse in the coming years.For example,there is possibility for it to expand northward and even penetrate into Central Asian Countries.Its negative impacts cannot be neglected.
The ISIS has experienced three stages of outreach in Afghanistan:the quiet emergency,rapid expansion and visible stagnancy.During its heyday,the ISIS Khorasan Province(ISKP)had shifted from seductive propaganda to bloody violence and killing in order to expand and consolidate its control.The absence of governance,weak national defend forces and underdeveloped economy provided fertile soil for ISIS’s emergence and dynamics in Afghanistan.However there are factors restraining its further expansion,such as Afghans’resistance against the Jihadi-Salafism,the contradiction between Pashtun tribal traditions and ISIS violent cultures,and fierce military attacks from Afghan Taliban.Although ISKP is declining in Afghanistan,its elimination is still not feasible and it may even resurge if the ground situation in Afghanistan gets much worse in the coming years.For example,there is possibility for it to expand northward and even penetrate into Central Asian Countries.Its negative impacts cannot be neglected.
引文
(1)Harleen Gambhir,“ISIS’s Global Strategy:A Wargame”,Middle East Security Report 28,Institute for the Study of War,July 2015.
(2)Borhan Osman,“Messages in Chalk:‘Islamic State’Haunting Afghanistan?”Afghan Analysts Network,November 17,2014.
(3)Ghanizada,“ISIS Distributes Booklets on Pak-Afghan Bordering Regions”,Khaama Press,September 3,2014;Ahmad Nawid,Wisal Yousafzai and Rahmat Alizada,“AfP ak 2014:Under the Flag of the Islamic State”,Afghanistan Today,November 26,2014;Nathan Hodge and Margherita Stancat,i“Afghans Sound Alarm Over Islamic State Recruitment”,The Wall Street Journal,October 13,2014.
(1)Saud Mehsud and Mubasher Bukhar,i“Pakistan Taliban Splinter Group Vows Allegiance to Islamic State”,Reuters,November 18,2014;“‘Al-Tawhid Battalion’in Afghanistan-Pakistan Region Pledges to IS”,SITE Intelligence Group;Farhan Zahid,“Islamic State in Afghanistan Ready to Capitalize on Mullah Omar’s Death”,Terrorism Monitor 13,No.18,2015.
(2)Borhan Osman,“The Shadows of‘Islamic State’in Afghanistan:What Threat Does It Hold?”Afghanistan Analysts Network,February 12,2015.
(3)Casey Garret Johnson,“The Rise and Stall of the Islamic State in Afghanistan”,Special Report 395,United States Institute of Peace,November 2016.
(4)Borhan Osman,“The Islamic State in‘Khorasan’:How It Began and Where It Stands Now in Nangarhar”,Afghanistan Analysts Network,July 27,2016.
(5)Casey Garret Johnson,“The Rise and Stall of the Islamic State in Afghanistan”,United States Institute of Peace”,Special Report 395,November 2016.
(6)Moshe Megged,“Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan(IMU)Pledge Allegiance to IS Leader”,Intelligence Briefs,August 8,2015.
(7)Edwin Mora,“UN:ISIS Active in Nearly Three-Quarters of Afghanistan”,Breitbart,September 28,2015.
(8)Casey Garret Johnson,“The Rise and Stall of the Islamic State in Afghanistan”,Special Report 395,November 2016.
(1)Jason Ditz,“ISIS Establishing Presence in Zabul Province”,Antiwar News,August 14,2016.
(2)Casey Garret Johnson,“The Rise and Stall of the Islamic State in Afghanistan”,United States Institute of Peace,Special Report 395,November 2016.
(3)Ghafoor Saboory,“Nangarhar Residents Stage Protest Against Mounting Insecurity,”Tolo News,February 8,2016.
(4)Hamid Shaliz,i“In Turf War with Afghan Taliban,ISIS Loyalists Gain Ground,”Al Arabiya,June 29,2015;Mirwais Sahi,l“Daesh Kills 600 Afghans,Operate Prisons in Nangarhar,”Tolo News,September 10,2015;Sahil Mirwais,“130 Nangarhar Residents in Daesh Custody,”Tolo news,August 12,2015;Mujib Masha,l“Afghan ISIS Branch Makes Inroads in Battle Against Taliban,”The New York Times,October13,2015;“ISIS in Afghanistan,”Frontline,November 17,2015;ZiaURahman Hasra,t“IS Runs Timber Smuggling Business in Afghanistan,Officials Say,”Voice of America,February 8,2016.
(5)Casey Garret Johnson,“The Rise and Stall of the Islamic State in Afghanistan”,United States Institute of Peace,Special Report 395,November 2016.
(6)Borhan Osman,“ISKP’s Battle for Mind:What Are Its Main Messages and Who Do They Attract?”Afghanistan Analysts Network,December 12,2016.
(1)Jessica Donati and Habib Khan Totakhi,l“Taliban,Islamic State Forge Informal Alliance in Eastern Afghanistan,”The Wall Street Journal,August 7,2016.
(2)Casey Garret Johnson,“The Rise and Stall of the Islamic State in Afghanistan”,United States Institute of Peace,Special Report 395,November 2016.
(3)同上。
(4)同上。
(5)Antonio Guistozz,i“The Islamic State in Khorasan:A Nuanced View,”RUSI,February 5,2016.该报告还称“伊斯兰国”呼罗珊分支在巴基斯坦有2000~3000名骨干分子。
(6)Casey Garret Johnson,“The Rise and Stall of the Islamic State in Afghanistan”,Special Report 395,November 2016,p.2.
(7)Michael R.Gordon,“ISIS Building‘Little Nests’in Afghanistan,U.S.Defense Secretary Warns”,The New York Times,December18,2015;Slobodan Lekic,“Islamic State struggles to grow in Afghanistan”,Stars and Stripes,February 21,2016.
(8)Casey Garret Johnson,“The Rise and Stall of the Islamic State in Afghanistan”,Special Report 395,November 2016,p.8.
(1)根据联合国教科文组织数据,http://www.unesco.org/new/en/kabul/education/enhancement-of-literacy-in-afghanistan-ela-program/.(上网时间:2016年12月2日)
(2)IMF,Country Report-Islanic Republic of Afganistan,No.15/324,November 2015.
(3)“Afghanistan Unemployment Rate”,http://www.tradingeconomics.com/afghanistan/unemployment-rate.(上网时间:2017年4月2日)
(4)Mujib Masha,l“Afghan ISIS Branch Makes Inroads in Battle Against Taliban”,The New York Times,October 13,2015.
(5)Casey Garret Johnson,“The Rise and Stall of the Islamic State in Afghanistan”,Special Report 395,November 2016,p.10.
(1)Tahir Khan,“Islamic State chief for Khorasan loses key support”,The Express Tribune,October 19,2015.
(2)Christopher Harress,“ISIS Fighters in Afghanistan Switch Allegiances to Kabul Government and Join Peace Process”,International Business Times,February 24,2016.
(3)阿塔以“阿富汗伊斯兰酋长国秘书处”的名义,在互联网发表第三版《战士军事条例》(Military Rules for the Mujahedin),http://shahamat.info/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=9<emid=24.(上网时间:2010年11月2日)
(4)Dawood Azam,i“Why Taliban Special Forces are Fighting Islamic State”,BBC News,December 18,2015.
(1)Rebecca Khee,l“Trump’s Nation-building Pledges to be Tested in Afghanistan”,The Hill,December 25,2016.
(2)Mirren Gidda,“Here’s Why ISIS Is Failing to Take Afghanistan?”Newsweek,March 25,2017.
(3)“ISIS to Sends 7,000 Terrorists in North of Afghanistan”,Arya News,October15 2016.
(4)“U.S.Commander:ISIS Attempting to Establish Caliphate in Afghanistan”,NBC News,October 23,2016.
(2)Borhan Osman,“Messages in Chalk:‘Islamic State’Haunting Afghanistan?”Afghan Analysts Network,November 17,2014.
(3)Ghanizada,“ISIS Distributes Booklets on Pak-Afghan Bordering Regions”,Khaama Press,September 3,2014;Ahmad Nawid,Wisal Yousafzai and Rahmat Alizada,“AfP ak 2014:Under the Flag of the Islamic State”,Afghanistan Today,November 26,2014;Nathan Hodge and Margherita Stancat,i“Afghans Sound Alarm Over Islamic State Recruitment”,The Wall Street Journal,October 13,2014.
(1)Saud Mehsud and Mubasher Bukhar,i“Pakistan Taliban Splinter Group Vows Allegiance to Islamic State”,Reuters,November 18,2014;“‘Al-Tawhid Battalion’in Afghanistan-Pakistan Region Pledges to IS”,SITE Intelligence Group;Farhan Zahid,“Islamic State in Afghanistan Ready to Capitalize on Mullah Omar’s Death”,Terrorism Monitor 13,No.18,2015.
(2)Borhan Osman,“The Shadows of‘Islamic State’in Afghanistan:What Threat Does It Hold?”Afghanistan Analysts Network,February 12,2015.
(3)Casey Garret Johnson,“The Rise and Stall of the Islamic State in Afghanistan”,Special Report 395,United States Institute of Peace,November 2016.
(4)Borhan Osman,“The Islamic State in‘Khorasan’:How It Began and Where It Stands Now in Nangarhar”,Afghanistan Analysts Network,July 27,2016.
(5)Casey Garret Johnson,“The Rise and Stall of the Islamic State in Afghanistan”,United States Institute of Peace”,Special Report 395,November 2016.
(6)Moshe Megged,“Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan(IMU)Pledge Allegiance to IS Leader”,Intelligence Briefs,August 8,2015.
(7)Edwin Mora,“UN:ISIS Active in Nearly Three-Quarters of Afghanistan”,Breitbart,September 28,2015.
(8)Casey Garret Johnson,“The Rise and Stall of the Islamic State in Afghanistan”,Special Report 395,November 2016.
(1)Jason Ditz,“ISIS Establishing Presence in Zabul Province”,Antiwar News,August 14,2016.
(2)Casey Garret Johnson,“The Rise and Stall of the Islamic State in Afghanistan”,United States Institute of Peace,Special Report 395,November 2016.
(3)Ghafoor Saboory,“Nangarhar Residents Stage Protest Against Mounting Insecurity,”Tolo News,February 8,2016.
(4)Hamid Shaliz,i“In Turf War with Afghan Taliban,ISIS Loyalists Gain Ground,”Al Arabiya,June 29,2015;Mirwais Sahi,l“Daesh Kills 600 Afghans,Operate Prisons in Nangarhar,”Tolo News,September 10,2015;Sahil Mirwais,“130 Nangarhar Residents in Daesh Custody,”Tolo news,August 12,2015;Mujib Masha,l“Afghan ISIS Branch Makes Inroads in Battle Against Taliban,”The New York Times,October13,2015;“ISIS in Afghanistan,”Frontline,November 17,2015;ZiaURahman Hasra,t“IS Runs Timber Smuggling Business in Afghanistan,Officials Say,”Voice of America,February 8,2016.
(5)Casey Garret Johnson,“The Rise and Stall of the Islamic State in Afghanistan”,United States Institute of Peace,Special Report 395,November 2016.
(6)Borhan Osman,“ISKP’s Battle for Mind:What Are Its Main Messages and Who Do They Attract?”Afghanistan Analysts Network,December 12,2016.
(1)Jessica Donati and Habib Khan Totakhi,l“Taliban,Islamic State Forge Informal Alliance in Eastern Afghanistan,”The Wall Street Journal,August 7,2016.
(2)Casey Garret Johnson,“The Rise and Stall of the Islamic State in Afghanistan”,United States Institute of Peace,Special Report 395,November 2016.
(3)同上。
(4)同上。
(5)Antonio Guistozz,i“The Islamic State in Khorasan:A Nuanced View,”RUSI,February 5,2016.该报告还称“伊斯兰国”呼罗珊分支在巴基斯坦有2000~3000名骨干分子。
(6)Casey Garret Johnson,“The Rise and Stall of the Islamic State in Afghanistan”,Special Report 395,November 2016,p.2.
(7)Michael R.Gordon,“ISIS Building‘Little Nests’in Afghanistan,U.S.Defense Secretary Warns”,The New York Times,December18,2015;Slobodan Lekic,“Islamic State struggles to grow in Afghanistan”,Stars and Stripes,February 21,2016.
(8)Casey Garret Johnson,“The Rise and Stall of the Islamic State in Afghanistan”,Special Report 395,November 2016,p.8.
(1)根据联合国教科文组织数据,http://www.unesco.org/new/en/kabul/education/enhancement-of-literacy-in-afghanistan-ela-program/.(上网时间:2016年12月2日)
(2)IMF,Country Report-Islanic Republic of Afganistan,No.15/324,November 2015.
(3)“Afghanistan Unemployment Rate”,http://www.tradingeconomics.com/afghanistan/unemployment-rate.(上网时间:2017年4月2日)
(4)Mujib Masha,l“Afghan ISIS Branch Makes Inroads in Battle Against Taliban”,The New York Times,October 13,2015.
(5)Casey Garret Johnson,“The Rise and Stall of the Islamic State in Afghanistan”,Special Report 395,November 2016,p.10.
(1)Tahir Khan,“Islamic State chief for Khorasan loses key support”,The Express Tribune,October 19,2015.
(2)Christopher Harress,“ISIS Fighters in Afghanistan Switch Allegiances to Kabul Government and Join Peace Process”,International Business Times,February 24,2016.
(3)阿塔以“阿富汗伊斯兰酋长国秘书处”的名义,在互联网发表第三版《战士军事条例》(Military Rules for the Mujahedin),http://shahamat.info/index.php?option=com_content&view=category&id=9<emid=24.(上网时间:2010年11月2日)
(4)Dawood Azam,i“Why Taliban Special Forces are Fighting Islamic State”,BBC News,December 18,2015.
(1)Rebecca Khee,l“Trump’s Nation-building Pledges to be Tested in Afghanistan”,The Hill,December 25,2016.
(2)Mirren Gidda,“Here’s Why ISIS Is Failing to Take Afghanistan?”Newsweek,March 25,2017.
(3)“ISIS to Sends 7,000 Terrorists in North of Afghanistan”,Arya News,October15 2016.
(4)“U.S.Commander:ISIS Attempting to Establish Caliphate in Afghanistan”,NBC News,October 23,2016.