改善供应链库存管理绩效的系统思考——以啤酒游戏为例
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摘要
运用基于系统动力学的动态研究的方法,以啤酒游戏为例,从动态复杂性的视角,探讨了改善供应链库存管理绩效的影响因素和解决方案。认为"系统结构""控制策略"和"控制参数"是影响供应链库存管理绩效的3类要素,提出了调整订货周期匹配订货提前期的"结构性解决方案"、基于考虑已发出订单和在途货物量的"策略性解决方案"和基于参数控制的"操作性解决方案"。并且,通过系统仿真分析和人工试验,研究了这3类要素在集中控制和分散控制模式下对库存绩效的影响。结果表明,这3类解决方案在集中控制模式下的有效性依次递增,而在分散控制模式下的有效性依次递减。该结果展示了多级供应链库存系统的动态复杂性,以及系统思考在处理动态复杂性方面的重要性和有效性。
Taking the model of beergame as an example, this paper studied the impacting factors and solutions for improving management performance of the supply chain inventory control system based on the principles of system dynamics and artificial simulation from the perspective of dynamic complexity. It believed that the "system structure", "control policy" and "control parameters" were three kinds of important factors to affect the performance of supply chain inventory management. Besides, it proposed the "structural solutions" to adjust the ordering cycle to match the order lead time, the "strategic solutions" based on consideration of the orders placed, the amount of goods in transit, and the "operating solutions" based on parameter control. In addition, it studied the influence of these three types of factors on the management performance under centralized control and decentralized control. The results show that the effectiveness of these three solutions on management performance is increasing in centralized control and is decreasing in decentralized control. The results also indicate that systematic thinking is important and effective in dealing with dynamic complexity.
Taking the model of beergame as an example, this paper studied the impacting factors and solutions for improving management performance of the supply chain inventory control system based on the principles of system dynamics and artificial simulation from the perspective of dynamic complexity. It believed that the "system structure", "control policy" and "control parameters" were three kinds of important factors to affect the performance of supply chain inventory management. Besides, it proposed the "structural solutions" to adjust the ordering cycle to match the order lead time, the "strategic solutions" based on consideration of the orders placed, the amount of goods in transit, and the "operating solutions" based on parameter control. In addition, it studied the influence of these three types of factors on the management performance under centralized control and decentralized control. The results show that the effectiveness of these three solutions on management performance is increasing in centralized control and is decreasing in decentralized control. The results also indicate that systematic thinking is important and effective in dealing with dynamic complexity.
引文
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[2] Wangphanich P, Kara S, Kayis B. Analysis of the bullwhip effect in multi-product, multi-stage supply chain systems-a simulation approach [J]. International Journal of Production Research, 2010, 48(15): 4501-4517.
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[9] 闫楷若. 供应链管理中的“牛鞭效应”研究综述[J]. 价值工程, 2015 (10): 43-45.
[10] 王瑛, 孙林岩. 基于合作需求预测的多级库存优化模型[J]. 系统管理学报, 2004, 13(3): 208-213.
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[19] Lee H L, Padmanabhan V, Whang S. The bullwhip effect in supply chain[J]. Sloan Management Review, 1997, 38(4): 93-102.
[20] Lee H L, Padmanabhan V, Whang S. Information distortion in a supply chain: The bullwhip effect [J]. Management Science, 1997, 43(4): 546-558.
[21] 应媛. 供应链牛鞭效应的量化研究[J]. 现代营销, 2014 (10):25.
[22] 李翀, 刘思峰, 方志耕,等. 供应链网络系统的牛鞭效应时滞因素分析与库存控制策略研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2013, 21(2): 107-113.
[23] 李锋, 魏莹. 决策行为影响牛鞭效应的仿真[J]. 系统管理学报, 2011, 20(5): 533-538.
[24] 王兆威, 阳平华. 基于系统动力学的军事供应链联合库存管理研究[J]. 军事运筹与系统工程, 2013, 27(2): 47-49.
[25] 李旭, 陈雨生, 刘铮铮. 系统动力学在配送中心订货策略优化中的应用[J]. 科技导报, 2007, 25(12): 68-72.
[26] Li X, Lu C. Research on policy optimization problem in system dynamics model [C]//IEEE SMC International Conference Proceedings. Netherlands: [s.n.],2004:224-228.
[27] Strozzi F, Bosch J, Zaldívar J M. Beer game order policy optimization under changing customer demand [J]. Decision Support Systems, 2007 (42): 2153-2163.
[2] Wangphanich P, Kara S, Kayis B. Analysis of the bullwhip effect in multi-product, multi-stage supply chain systems-a simulation approach [J]. International Journal of Production Research, 2010, 48(15): 4501-4517.
[3] 达庆利, 张钦, 沈厚才. 供应链中牛鞭效应问题研究[J]. 管理科学学报, 2003, 6(3): 86-93.
[4] 万杰, 李敏强, 寇纪淞. 供应链中分配机制对牛鞭效应的影响研究[J]. 系统工程学报, 2002, 17(4): 340-348.
[5] Campuzano F, Mula J, Peidro D. Fuzzy estimations and system dynamics for improving supply chains [J]. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 2010, 161(11): 1530-1542.
[6] Towill D R. Forridge-principles of good material flow [J]. Production Planning and Control, 1997, 8(7): 622-632.
[7] Sterman J D. Modeling managerial behavior: Misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision making experiment [J]. Management Science, 1989, 35(3): 321-339.
[8] Li X, Li L, Hu Q, et al. Systems thinking solving bullwhip effect in supply chain: from the perspective of system dynamics[C]//IEEE MASS International Conference Proceedings. Beijing:[s.n.], 2009: 9.
[9] 闫楷若. 供应链管理中的“牛鞭效应”研究综述[J]. 价值工程, 2015 (10): 43-45.
[10] 王瑛, 孙林岩. 基于合作需求预测的多级库存优化模型[J]. 系统管理学报, 2004, 13(3): 208-213.
[11] 刘丽文. 生产与运作管理[M]. 北京: 清华大学出版社, 1998.
[12] 孙士雅. 供应链管理中库存控制策略及管理绩效评价[D]. 重庆: 重庆大学, 2002.
[13] 汪云峰. 供应链库存管理现状研究[J]. 物流技术, 2000 (2): 18-25.
[14] 王炬香, 王安麟. 供应链管理中的战略库存[J]. 制造自动化, 2001(3): 7-9.
[15] 陈美霞, 沈厚才. 供应链管理中的生产批量与数量折扣定价联合决策模型[J]. 东南大学学报, 2000, 30(6): 75-80.
[16] 李锋, 魏莹. 决策行为影响牛鞭效应的仿真[J]. 系统管理学报, 2011, 20(5): 533-538.
[17] Forrester J W. Industrial dynamics [M]. New York: MIT Press and John Wiley &Sons Inc, 1961.
[18] Sterman J D. Business dynamics: System thinking and modeling for a complex world [M]. New York: The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2000.
[19] Lee H L, Padmanabhan V, Whang S. The bullwhip effect in supply chain[J]. Sloan Management Review, 1997, 38(4): 93-102.
[20] Lee H L, Padmanabhan V, Whang S. Information distortion in a supply chain: The bullwhip effect [J]. Management Science, 1997, 43(4): 546-558.
[21] 应媛. 供应链牛鞭效应的量化研究[J]. 现代营销, 2014 (10):25.
[22] 李翀, 刘思峰, 方志耕,等. 供应链网络系统的牛鞭效应时滞因素分析与库存控制策略研究[J]. 中国管理科学, 2013, 21(2): 107-113.
[23] 李锋, 魏莹. 决策行为影响牛鞭效应的仿真[J]. 系统管理学报, 2011, 20(5): 533-538.
[24] 王兆威, 阳平华. 基于系统动力学的军事供应链联合库存管理研究[J]. 军事运筹与系统工程, 2013, 27(2): 47-49.
[25] 李旭, 陈雨生, 刘铮铮. 系统动力学在配送中心订货策略优化中的应用[J]. 科技导报, 2007, 25(12): 68-72.
[26] Li X, Lu C. Research on policy optimization problem in system dynamics model [C]//IEEE SMC International Conference Proceedings. Netherlands: [s.n.],2004:224-228.
[27] Strozzi F, Bosch J, Zaldívar J M. Beer game order policy optimization under changing customer demand [J]. Decision Support Systems, 2007 (42): 2153-2163.