CNG加气站储气井动态安全评估
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摘要
地下储气井作为CNG加气站最主要的储气方式,其安全性是保证CNG加气站正常运行的关键。为了对CNG加气站储气井进行动态安全评估,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的概率化动态安全评估方法:利用Bow-Tie模型建立完整的加气站储气井泄漏失效因果逻辑,根据Bow-Tie模型与贝叶斯网络的映射关系生成相应的基于贝叶斯网络的安全评估模型;分别计算顶上事件和事故后果先验概率、顶上事件发生情况下的后验概率、防锈漆完全脱落情况下的失效风险以及报警响应可靠性变化情况下的事故后果概率,并利用贝叶斯网络的特性对根节点的敏感性进行分析。动态安全评估结果表明:提高CNG加气站储气井安全性的关键在于降低高敏感性基本事件的失效概率、基于新证据周期性地预测失效风险,并通过提高报警响应可靠性以最大程度降低事故损失。(图8,表5,参20)
An underground gas storage well is the most important gas storage mode at compressed natural gas(CNG) filling stations, and its safety is the key to the normal operation of CNG filling stations. In this paper, a probabilistic dynamic safety assessment method based on Bayesian network was proposed to dynamically evaluate the safety of the gas storage wells at CNG filling stations. In this method, a complete causal logic on the leakage failure of gas storage wells at CNG filling stations is established by means of Bow-Tie model, and the corresponding safety assessment model based on Bayesian network is developed according to the mapping relationship between Bow-Tie model and Bayesian network. Then, the prior probabilities of top event and accident consequence, the posterior probabilities in the case of top event, the failure risk when anti-corrosive paint is completely off and the probabilities of accident consequence when the reliability of alarm response is changed are calculated respectively. Furthermore, sensitivity of root nodes is analyzed based on the characteristics of Bayesian network. The dynamic safety assessment results show that the key to improve the safety of gas storage wells at CNG filling stations is to reduce the failure probabilities of high-sensitivity basic event, predict the failure risk periodically based on new evidences and improve the reliability of alarm response to minimize the accident loss.(8 Figures, 5 Tables,20 References)
An underground gas storage well is the most important gas storage mode at compressed natural gas(CNG) filling stations, and its safety is the key to the normal operation of CNG filling stations. In this paper, a probabilistic dynamic safety assessment method based on Bayesian network was proposed to dynamically evaluate the safety of the gas storage wells at CNG filling stations. In this method, a complete causal logic on the leakage failure of gas storage wells at CNG filling stations is established by means of Bow-Tie model, and the corresponding safety assessment model based on Bayesian network is developed according to the mapping relationship between Bow-Tie model and Bayesian network. Then, the prior probabilities of top event and accident consequence, the posterior probabilities in the case of top event, the failure risk when anti-corrosive paint is completely off and the probabilities of accident consequence when the reliability of alarm response is changed are calculated respectively. Furthermore, sensitivity of root nodes is analyzed based on the characteristics of Bayesian network. The dynamic safety assessment results show that the key to improve the safety of gas storage wells at CNG filling stations is to reduce the failure probabilities of high-sensitivity basic event, predict the failure risk periodically based on new evidences and improve the reliability of alarm response to minimize the accident loss.(8 Figures, 5 Tables,20 References)
引文
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[13]LU L L,LIANG W,ZHANG L B,et al.A comprehensive risk evaluation method for natural gas pipelines by combining a risk matrix with a bow-tie model[J].Journal of Natural Gas Science&Engineering,2015,25:124-133.
[14]HAO J,ZHANG L B,LIANG W,et al.Integrated leakage detection and localization model for gas pipelines based on the acoustic wave method[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2014,27(1):74-88.
[15]KHAKZAD N,KHAN F,AMYOTTE P.Dynamic safety analysis of process systems by mapping bow-tie into Bayesian network[J].Process Safety&Environmental Protection,2013,91(1-2):46-53.
[16]ZAREI E,AZADEH A,KHAKZAD N,et al.Dynamic safety assessment of natural gas stations using Bayesian network[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2017,321:830-840.
[17]PEARL J.Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems:networks of plausible inference[M].San Francisco:Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc.,1988:29-62.
[18]BOBBIO A,PORTINALE L,MINICHINO M,et al.Improving the analysis of dependable systems by mapping fault trees into Bayesian networks[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2001,71(3):249-260.
[19]BEARFIELD G,WILLIAM M.Generalising event trees using Bayesian networks with a case study of train derailment[C].Berlin:International Conference on Computer Safety,Reliability,and Security,2005:52-66.
[20]刘晓龙,史少帅,王涛.压缩天然气加气母站安全评价中若干问题的探讨[J].安全、健康和环境,2010,10(11):31-33.LIU X L,SHI S S,WANG T.Discussion on some problems of CNC filling station evaluation[J].Safety Health&Environment,2010,10(11):31-33.
[2]赵力.CNG站地下储气井安全性分析[D].西安:西安石油大学,2014:3.ZHAO L.Safety analysis of underground gas wells at CNGstations[D].Xi'an:Xi'an Shiyou University,2014:3.
[3]朱赟,张文胜,张新芬,等.加气站内CNG储气井与储气瓶的选用[J].油气储运,2016,35(3):332-335.ZHU Y,ZHANG W S,ZHANG X F,et al.Selection of CNGstorage well and cylinder group used in filling station[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2016,35(3):332-335.
[4]刘清友,何霞,孟少辉.CNG地下储气井安全性分析[J].天然气工业,2005,25(1):138-140.LIU Q Y,HE X,MENG S H.Safety analysis of CNGstorage[J].Natural Gas Industry,2005,25(1):138-140.
[5]孔金凤,王梅山.CNG加气站建设管理中应注意的几个问题[J].油气储运,2007,26(8):50-52.KONG J F,WANG M S.Some problems in the design and management of CNG filling station[J].Oil&Gas Storage and Transportation,2007,26(8):50-52.
[6]尹燕莉,潘小亮.基于故障树理论的CNG加气站储气罐安全性分析[J].中国特种设备安全,2006,22(4):14-17.YIN Y L,PAN X L.Safe analysis on gas storage sphere of CNGgas station based on fault tree[J].China Special Equipment Safety,2006,22(4):14-17.
[7]李志楠.基于故障树分析的储气井风险评价方法[D].大连:大连理工大学,2012:3-5,88.LI Z N.Risk evaluation method based on fault tree analysis in gas storage well[D].Dalian:Dalian University of Technology,2012:3-5,88.
[8]史少帅,胡乾彬,刘晓龙.加气母站泄漏事故后果分析研究[J].广东化工,2013,40(11):32-33.SHI S S,HU Q B,LIU X L.Research on the leakage accident consequence of CNG filling parent station[J].Guangdong Chemical Industry,2013,40(11):32-33.
[9]薛荣,王大海,江一舟,等.故障树在CNG加气母站失效分析中的应用[J].中小企业管理与科技,2015(11):209-211.XUE R,WANG D H,JIANG Y Z,et al.Application of fault tree in failure analysis of CNG aeration station[J].Management&Technology of SME,2015(11):209-211.
[10]KHAKZAD N,KHAN F,AMYOTTE P.Safety analysis in process facilities:Comparison of fault tree and Bayesian network approaches[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2011,96(8):925-932.
[11]KHAKZAD N,KHANA F.Dynamic risk analysis using bowtie approach[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2012,104:36-44.
[12]SHAHRIAR A,SADIQ R,TESFAMARIAM S.Risk analysis for oil&gas pipelines:A sustainability assessment approach using fuzzy based bow-tie analysis[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2012,25(3):505-523.
[13]LU L L,LIANG W,ZHANG L B,et al.A comprehensive risk evaluation method for natural gas pipelines by combining a risk matrix with a bow-tie model[J].Journal of Natural Gas Science&Engineering,2015,25:124-133.
[14]HAO J,ZHANG L B,LIANG W,et al.Integrated leakage detection and localization model for gas pipelines based on the acoustic wave method[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2014,27(1):74-88.
[15]KHAKZAD N,KHAN F,AMYOTTE P.Dynamic safety analysis of process systems by mapping bow-tie into Bayesian network[J].Process Safety&Environmental Protection,2013,91(1-2):46-53.
[16]ZAREI E,AZADEH A,KHAKZAD N,et al.Dynamic safety assessment of natural gas stations using Bayesian network[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2017,321:830-840.
[17]PEARL J.Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems:networks of plausible inference[M].San Francisco:Morgan Kaufmann Publishers Inc.,1988:29-62.
[18]BOBBIO A,PORTINALE L,MINICHINO M,et al.Improving the analysis of dependable systems by mapping fault trees into Bayesian networks[J].Reliability Engineering&System Safety,2001,71(3):249-260.
[19]BEARFIELD G,WILLIAM M.Generalising event trees using Bayesian networks with a case study of train derailment[C].Berlin:International Conference on Computer Safety,Reliability,and Security,2005:52-66.
[20]刘晓龙,史少帅,王涛.压缩天然气加气母站安全评价中若干问题的探讨[J].安全、健康和环境,2010,10(11):31-33.LIU X L,SHI S S,WANG T.Discussion on some problems of CNC filling station evaluation[J].Safety Health&Environment,2010,10(11):31-33.