基于AHP-云模型的铁路隧道突水危险性综合评价
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摘要
铁路隧道工程突水危险性评价是施工中的重要安全措施,受评价因子模糊性特征的影响,提出多因素突水危险性的云模型理论综合评价方法,提高评价的综合性和可靠性。在调研分析影响隧道突水灾害的风险因素集的基础上,选取了13个评价因素,确定各因素突水风险评语集,建立了层次分析法(AHP)确定因素权重的突水危险性综合评价云模型。并以尖峰山隧道工程为例,进行该隧道工程的突水危险性评价。研究结果表明:基于AHP-云模型的隧道突水风险综合评价方法,可以充分利用定性和定量的样本信息,系统直观地表现出隧道突水风险评价因素的特征,为多指标模糊因素的评价提供一种有效的方法;选取尖峰山隧道不同里程的10个样本为研究对象,通过AHP-云模型正向云发生器,获得各因子对不同风险等级的隶属度,结合综合评语云模型和综合确定度计算值得出隧道突水风险评价结论。
Risk assessment of water inrush in railway tunnel is an important safety measure in construction. Influenced by fuzzy characteristics of evaluation factors, and to improve the comprehensiveness and reliability of evaluation, put forward a comprehensive evaluation method based on cloud model theory. Based on the investigation and analysis of inrush factors which can result in water inrush into tunnels, selects 13 evaluation factors, identify the comment set of water inrush risk evaluation about each factors, using AHP to determine the weight of each factors, and then established a comprehensive evaluation cloud model for water inrush risk. Taking the Jianfengshan tunnel project as an example, and develop a water inrush hazard assessment for it. The results show that the comprehensive evaluation of water inrush risk method based on AHP-cloud model can make full application of the qualitative and quantitative information, show the characteristics of tunnel water inrush risk factors directly, provide a kind of effective evaluation method for fuzzy factors with multi index; selected 10 samples with different mileages of Jianfengshan tunnel as the research object, using the normal generator of cloud model, obtain the membership of each factors' risk levels, making the conclusion of the tunnel water inrush risk assessment based on the comprehensive evaluation cloud model and the comprehensive determination calculation.
Risk assessment of water inrush in railway tunnel is an important safety measure in construction. Influenced by fuzzy characteristics of evaluation factors, and to improve the comprehensiveness and reliability of evaluation, put forward a comprehensive evaluation method based on cloud model theory. Based on the investigation and analysis of inrush factors which can result in water inrush into tunnels, selects 13 evaluation factors, identify the comment set of water inrush risk evaluation about each factors, using AHP to determine the weight of each factors, and then established a comprehensive evaluation cloud model for water inrush risk. Taking the Jianfengshan tunnel project as an example, and develop a water inrush hazard assessment for it. The results show that the comprehensive evaluation of water inrush risk method based on AHP-cloud model can make full application of the qualitative and quantitative information, show the characteristics of tunnel water inrush risk factors directly, provide a kind of effective evaluation method for fuzzy factors with multi index; selected 10 samples with different mileages of Jianfengshan tunnel as the research object, using the normal generator of cloud model, obtain the membership of each factors' risk levels, making the conclusion of the tunnel water inrush risk assessment based on the comprehensive evaluation cloud model and the comprehensive determination calculation.
引文
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[3]李健,汪明武,徐鹏,等.基于云模型的围岩稳定性分类[J].岩土工程学报,2014,36(1):83-87.
[4]杨光,刘敦文,褚夫蛟,等.基于云模型的隧道塌方风险等级评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,11(6):95-101.
[5]周科平,林允,胡建华,等.基于熵权_正态云模型的岩爆烈度分级预测研究[J].岩土力学,2016,37(1):596-601.
[6]田玉刚,杜源会,覃东华,等.基于数据场和云模型的洪水灾害风险等级评估[J].中国安全科学学报,2011,21(8):158-163.
[7]徐征捷,张友鹏,苏宏升.基于云模型的模糊综合评判法在风险评估中的应用[J].安全与环境学报,2014,14(2):69-72.
[8]胡建华,习智琴,周科平.深部采空区尺寸效应的危险度正态云辨识模型[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(10):70-75.
[9]王迎超,靖洪文,张强,等.基于正态云模型的深埋地下工程岩爆烈度分级预测研究[J].岩土力学,2015,35(4):1189-1193.
[10]唐胜传.岩体质量分类[J].西南工学院院报,2001,16(4):40-43.
[11]王成亮.铁路隧道岩溶突水灾害风险识别与预警方法研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2010:151-163.
[12]贾磊,李源,章岩.隧道突水突泥灾害的模糊预测和控制措施[J].灾害学,2014,29(2):69-71.
[13]蒋国云.深埋隧道岩溶突水安全风险评价模型研究[J].地下空间与工程学报,2012,8(2):274-279.
[14]庞博,李玉霞,童玲.基于灰色聚类法和模糊综合法的水质评价[J].环境科学与技术,2011,11:185-188.
[15]王飞跃,董陇军,白云飞.隧道施工现场安全评价的费歇判别分析模型(FDA)及其应用[J].中国安全科学学报,2008,18(1):160-164.
[16]张岭.隧道工程施工安全风险管理研究[D].石家庄:石家庄铁道大学,2013:17-50.
[17]邓雪,李家铭,曾浩健,等.层次分析法权重计算方法分析分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(7):93-100.
[18]何发亮.隧道施工突水突泥灾害防控研究[J].工程地质学报,2016,24:559-564.
[19]陈轶俊,刘敦文,朱鼎耀,等.基于云模型的舰艇弹药库房综合安全评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(2):138–144.