基于组合赋权-云模型理论的岩爆预测研究
|
摘要
岩爆是地下工程中一种常见的地质灾害现象,其烈度分级对地下工程建设有重要的指导意义。收集了37例发生岩爆灾害的地下工程的调查资料结合已有岩爆理论(按岩石力学性质、围岩应力条件、围岩结构条件3个方面)总结出15个岩爆影响因素评价指标。采用主观赋权(层次分析法)、客观赋权(熵权法)相结合的方式对各影响因素进行赋权。然后采用云模型理论实现岩爆烈度与影响因素间的不确定映射,采用正向云发生器算法求得样本各个岩爆烈度等级的综合确定度,并判别岩爆等级。最后采取该评判模型对某水电站地下洞室进行岩爆烈度等级判别,其判别结果与实际岩爆等级相符,证实该方法具有一定的适用性。
Rock burst is a common geological hazard in underground openings. The intensity grading of rock burst is of great importance to underground construction. Geologic information and data of 37 rock burst sites was analyzed,as a result,15 influential factors of rock burst( considering rock mechanical properties,surrounding rock structures and stress condition) was proposed. A new weighting method which combined subjective weighting( analytic hierarchy process) with objective weighting( entropy weight method) was employed to empower each influencing factor. Then,based on the theory of cloud model,the rock burst certainty of 37 sample cases was calculated normal cloud generator,a mapping of rock burst certainty to rock burst intensity grade was established. Finally,as an example,this evaluation model was used to determine the rock burst intensity level of an underground cavern of a hydropower station. The result agrees with the actual rock burst level,which proves that the method was applicable.
Rock burst is a common geological hazard in underground openings. The intensity grading of rock burst is of great importance to underground construction. Geologic information and data of 37 rock burst sites was analyzed,as a result,15 influential factors of rock burst( considering rock mechanical properties,surrounding rock structures and stress condition) was proposed. A new weighting method which combined subjective weighting( analytic hierarchy process) with objective weighting( entropy weight method) was employed to empower each influencing factor. Then,based on the theory of cloud model,the rock burst certainty of 37 sample cases was calculated normal cloud generator,a mapping of rock burst certainty to rock burst intensity grade was established. Finally,as an example,this evaluation model was used to determine the rock burst intensity level of an underground cavern of a hydropower station. The result agrees with the actual rock burst level,which proves that the method was applicable.
引文
[1]张镜剑,傅冰骏.岩爆及其判据和防治[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2008,27(10):2034-2042.
[2]肖明清,刘浩,彭长胜,等.基于神经网络的深厚软土地层参数反演分析[J].地下空间与工程学报,2017,13(1):279-286.
[3]穆成林,裴向军,路军富.基于多层次灰色理论围岩稳定性评价研究[J].地下空间与工程学报,2016,12(1):220-226.
[4]夏开宗,刘秀敏,陈从新,等.考虑突变理论的顺层岩质边坡失稳研究[J].岩土力学,2015,36(2):477-486.
[5]周科平,林允,胡建华,等.基于熵权—正态云模型的岩爆烈度分级预测研究[J].岩土力学,2016,37(增1):596-602.
[6]邓雪,李家铭,曾浩健,等.层次分析法权重计算方法分析及其应用研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(7):93-100.
[7]殷详详,周钟,赵二峰.基于熵理论的锦屏一级拱坝空间变形预警指标拟定研究[J].长江科学院院报,2016,33(2):42-47.
[8]穆成林,黄润秋,裴向军,等.基于组合赋权-未确知测度理论的围岩稳定性评价[J].岩土工程学报,2016,38(6):1057-1063.
[9]汪华斌,卢自立,邱杰汉,等.基于粒子群算法优化支持向量机的岩爆预测研究[J].地下空间与工程学报,2017,12(2):364-369.
[10]龚剑,胡乃联,崔翔,等.基于AHP-TOPSIS评判模型的岩爆倾向性预测[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2014,33(7):1442-1448.
[11]王迎超,靖洪文,张强,等.基于正态云模型的深埋地下工程岩爆烈度分级预测研究[J].岩土力学,2015,36(4):1189-1194.
[12]汤能见.基于熵—云耦合模型的引水隧洞岩爆预测研究[J].水电能源科学,2015(12):116-118.
[2]肖明清,刘浩,彭长胜,等.基于神经网络的深厚软土地层参数反演分析[J].地下空间与工程学报,2017,13(1):279-286.
[3]穆成林,裴向军,路军富.基于多层次灰色理论围岩稳定性评价研究[J].地下空间与工程学报,2016,12(1):220-226.
[4]夏开宗,刘秀敏,陈从新,等.考虑突变理论的顺层岩质边坡失稳研究[J].岩土力学,2015,36(2):477-486.
[5]周科平,林允,胡建华,等.基于熵权—正态云模型的岩爆烈度分级预测研究[J].岩土力学,2016,37(增1):596-602.
[6]邓雪,李家铭,曾浩健,等.层次分析法权重计算方法分析及其应用研究[J].数学的实践与认识,2012,42(7):93-100.
[7]殷详详,周钟,赵二峰.基于熵理论的锦屏一级拱坝空间变形预警指标拟定研究[J].长江科学院院报,2016,33(2):42-47.
[8]穆成林,黄润秋,裴向军,等.基于组合赋权-未确知测度理论的围岩稳定性评价[J].岩土工程学报,2016,38(6):1057-1063.
[9]汪华斌,卢自立,邱杰汉,等.基于粒子群算法优化支持向量机的岩爆预测研究[J].地下空间与工程学报,2017,12(2):364-369.
[10]龚剑,胡乃联,崔翔,等.基于AHP-TOPSIS评判模型的岩爆倾向性预测[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2014,33(7):1442-1448.
[11]王迎超,靖洪文,张强,等.基于正态云模型的深埋地下工程岩爆烈度分级预测研究[J].岩土力学,2015,36(4):1189-1194.
[12]汤能见.基于熵—云耦合模型的引水隧洞岩爆预测研究[J].水电能源科学,2015(12):116-118.