基于双参数Gumbel-Hougaard Copula函数的设计洪水地区组成分析
|
摘要
设计洪水地区组成是流域开发方案设计中需要解决的问题。以淮河流域鲁台子断面、中渡断面1951-2010年洪水资料为基础,充分考虑Copula函数的尾部相关性,选用双参数GH Copula函数构造鲁台子断面与鲁中区间年最大30 d洪量的二维联合分布模型。对比分析条件期望组合法、条件最可能组合法、最可能组合法、同频率组成法4种设计洪水地区组成方法在中渡断面设计洪水分配中的合理性,揭示在不同量级情境下以鲁台子断面为界的上游及区间洪水对中渡断面洪水组成的贡献率。对于中渡断面而言,从洪泽湖的安全及设计合理性的角度出发应选择最可能组成分配方案作为设计参考。
Regional flood composition is a problem to be solved in catchment development scheme design. In this paper,based on the flood data during 1951-2010 at Lutaizi and Zhongdu site,the two-parameter GH Copula function is chosen to construct the joint distribution of annual maximum 30 d flood volumes at Lutaizi and Luzhong interval,taking tail dependence into account. A contrastive analysis is made of the flood distribution rationality at Zhongdu site in the light of four different methods which are conditional expectation composition,conditional most likely composition,most likely composition and equivalent frequency composition. the contribution rate of design flood of each region under different magnitude scenarios is revealed by regarding Lutaizi site as the boundary. For Zhongdu site,most likely composition should be chosen as design reference in view of the safety of Hongze Lake and design rationality.
Regional flood composition is a problem to be solved in catchment development scheme design. In this paper,based on the flood data during 1951-2010 at Lutaizi and Zhongdu site,the two-parameter GH Copula function is chosen to construct the joint distribution of annual maximum 30 d flood volumes at Lutaizi and Luzhong interval,taking tail dependence into account. A contrastive analysis is made of the flood distribution rationality at Zhongdu site in the light of four different methods which are conditional expectation composition,conditional most likely composition,most likely composition and equivalent frequency composition. the contribution rate of design flood of each region under different magnitude scenarios is revealed by regarding Lutaizi site as the boundary. For Zhongdu site,most likely composition should be chosen as design reference in view of the safety of Hongze Lake and design rationality.
引文
[1] SL44-2006,水利水电工程设计洪水计算规范[S].
[2]王锐琛,陈源泽,孙汉贤.梯级水库下游洪水概率分布的计算方法[J].水文,1990,(1):1-8.
[3] Salvadori G,Michele C D. On the use of copulas in hydrology:theory and practice[J]. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2007,12(4):369-380.
[4]薛晓鹏,张卫国,朱从飞,等.基于Copula函数的甬江流域设计潮位过程研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2018,(2):37-40.
[5]闫宝伟,郭生练,郭靖,等.基于Copula函数的设计洪水地区组成研究[J].水力发电学报,2010,29(6):60-65.
[6]刘和昌,梁忠民,姚轶,等.基于Copula函数的水文变量条件组合分析[J].水力发电,2014,40(5):13-16.
[7]刘章君,郭生练,李天元,等.梯级水库设计洪水最可能地区组成法计算通式[J].水科学进展,2014,25(4):575-584.
[8] Brahimi B,Chebana F,Necir A. Copula representation of bivariate L-moments:a new estimation method for multiparameter two-dimensional copula models[J]. Statistics,2015,49(3):497-521.
[9] Joe H. Dependence modeling with copulas[M]. Boca Raton:CRC Press,2014:462-463.
[10] Gencst C,Rivcst L P. Statistical inference procedures for bivariate archimedean copulas[J]. Journal of American Statistical Association,1993,88(423):1 034-1 043.
[11] Salvadori G,De Michele C. Estimating strategies for multiparameter multivariate extreme value copulas[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2011,15(1):141-150.
[12] Frahm G,Junker M,Schmidt R. Estimating the tail-dependence coefficient:properties and pitfalls[J]. Insurance Mathematics&Economics,2005,37(1):80-100.
[13]刘章君,郭生练,李天元,等.设计洪水地区组成的区间估计方法研究[J].水利学报,2015,46(5):543-550.
[14]赵建生.水文资料系列的代表性分析[J].内蒙古水利,2013,(6):18-19.
[2]王锐琛,陈源泽,孙汉贤.梯级水库下游洪水概率分布的计算方法[J].水文,1990,(1):1-8.
[3] Salvadori G,Michele C D. On the use of copulas in hydrology:theory and practice[J]. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2007,12(4):369-380.
[4]薛晓鹏,张卫国,朱从飞,等.基于Copula函数的甬江流域设计潮位过程研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2018,(2):37-40.
[5]闫宝伟,郭生练,郭靖,等.基于Copula函数的设计洪水地区组成研究[J].水力发电学报,2010,29(6):60-65.
[6]刘和昌,梁忠民,姚轶,等.基于Copula函数的水文变量条件组合分析[J].水力发电,2014,40(5):13-16.
[7]刘章君,郭生练,李天元,等.梯级水库设计洪水最可能地区组成法计算通式[J].水科学进展,2014,25(4):575-584.
[8] Brahimi B,Chebana F,Necir A. Copula representation of bivariate L-moments:a new estimation method for multiparameter two-dimensional copula models[J]. Statistics,2015,49(3):497-521.
[9] Joe H. Dependence modeling with copulas[M]. Boca Raton:CRC Press,2014:462-463.
[10] Gencst C,Rivcst L P. Statistical inference procedures for bivariate archimedean copulas[J]. Journal of American Statistical Association,1993,88(423):1 034-1 043.
[11] Salvadori G,De Michele C. Estimating strategies for multiparameter multivariate extreme value copulas[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2011,15(1):141-150.
[12] Frahm G,Junker M,Schmidt R. Estimating the tail-dependence coefficient:properties and pitfalls[J]. Insurance Mathematics&Economics,2005,37(1):80-100.
[13]刘章君,郭生练,李天元,等.设计洪水地区组成的区间估计方法研究[J].水利学报,2015,46(5):543-550.
[14]赵建生.水文资料系列的代表性分析[J].内蒙古水利,2013,(6):18-19.