黄河宁夏段干支流洪水组成分析
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摘要
黄河宁夏段干支流洪水特性差异,洪水来量及遭遇组合复杂,再加上汛期青铜峡水库防洪形势严峻,故需要对青铜峡水库入库洪水来源及洪水组成进行分析。基于Copula函数构建青铜峡水库上游干支流洪水变量的联合分布,并采用最可能地区组成法计算青铜峡水库上游最可能发生的干支流洪水要素组合。结果表明:青铜峡水库断面设计洪水主要来自上游干流,合理的洪水管理应当考虑支流对青铜峡水库断面影响。通过与同频率地区组成法和典型年实测洪水组成对比分析可知,基于Frank Copula函数的最可能组成法能得到更加合理的干支流洪水遭遇组成情况,从而为青铜峡水库断面提供了更加合理的上游洪水组成方案。
Because of the difference of flood characteristics in Mainstream and its tributaries of Ningxia section of the Yellow River,the flood volume and the complex combinations,and the severe flood control situation of Qingtongxia reservoir during flood season,so it is necessary to analyze the sources and combinations of Qingtongxia reservoir inflow floods.The paper built the joint distribution of flood variation in mainstream and its tributaries based on Copula function,and then calculated the composition of the flood elements which were most likely happen in mainstream and its tributaries by the method of the most likely composition.Results show that the design flood in Qingtongxia reservoir section is mostly from the mainstream in upstream section of the Yellow River.It is necessary to consider the influence of tributary on Qingtongxia reservoir section for reasonable flood management.Through comparing the method of the equivalent frequency composition and the measured flood,the result indicated that the situation of flood composition and flood hydrograph derived by method of the most likely composition is more reasonable.So we can gain the reasonable influence by the mainstream and its tributaries to Qingtongxia reservoir,The method can provide a more reasonable scheme of upstream flood composition for Qingtongxia reservoir section.
Because of the difference of flood characteristics in Mainstream and its tributaries of Ningxia section of the Yellow River,the flood volume and the complex combinations,and the severe flood control situation of Qingtongxia reservoir during flood season,so it is necessary to analyze the sources and combinations of Qingtongxia reservoir inflow floods.The paper built the joint distribution of flood variation in mainstream and its tributaries based on Copula function,and then calculated the composition of the flood elements which were most likely happen in mainstream and its tributaries by the method of the most likely composition.Results show that the design flood in Qingtongxia reservoir section is mostly from the mainstream in upstream section of the Yellow River.It is necessary to consider the influence of tributary on Qingtongxia reservoir section for reasonable flood management.Through comparing the method of the equivalent frequency composition and the measured flood,the result indicated that the situation of flood composition and flood hydrograph derived by method of the most likely composition is more reasonable.So we can gain the reasonable influence by the mainstream and its tributaries to Qingtongxia reservoir,The method can provide a more reasonable scheme of upstream flood composition for Qingtongxia reservoir section.
引文
[1]刘画眉.设计洪水地区组成计算方法研究及应用[D].武汉:武汉大学,2005.
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[3]陈华,栗飞,王金星,等.湘江流域设计洪水地区组成方法研究[J].水文,2014,34(2):55-59.
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[5]Klein B,Pahlow M,Hundecha Y,et al.Probability Analysis of Hydrological Loads for the design of Flood Control Systems Using Copulas[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2014,15(5):360-369.
[6]范小黎,师长兴,周园园,等.黄河宁蒙段洪水过程变化特点[J].资源科学,2012,34(1):65-73.
[7]王新军,凌虹霞,王永强,等.黄河宁夏段2012年洪水分析[J].人民黄河,2014(8):31-33.
[8]Joe H.Multivariate Models and Dependence Concepts[M].London:Chapman&Hall,1997.
[9]Nelson RB.An introduction to Copulas[M].New York:Springer,1999.
[10]肖义.基于Copula函数的多变量水文分析计算研究[D].武汉:武汉大学,2007.
[11]郭生练,闫宝伟,肖义,等.Copula函数在多变量水文分析计算中的应用及研究进展[J].水文,2008,28(3):1-7.
[12]Yan J.Enjoy the Joy of Copulas:With a Package copula[J].Journal of Statistical Software,2007(10):1-21.
[13]熊立华,郭生练,肖义,等.Copula联结函数在多变量水文频率分析中的应用[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2005,38(6):16-19.
[14]Yue S,Ouarda T,Bobee B,et al.The Gumbel mixed model for flood frequency analysis[J].Journal of Hydrology,1999,226(1-2):88-100.
[15]Singh V P,Zhang L.Bivariate Flood Frequency Analysis Using the Copula Method[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2006,11(2):150-164.
[16]闫宝伟,郭生练,郭靖,等.基于Copula函数的设计洪水地区组成研究[J].水力发电学报,2010,29(6):60-65.
[2]谭维炎,黄守信.水库下游城市防洪风险的估算[J].水利学报,1983,(7):37-40.
[3]陈华,栗飞,王金星,等.湘江流域设计洪水地区组成方法研究[J].水文,2014,34(2):55-59.
[4]Favre A C,Adlouni S E,Perreault L,e tal.Multivariate hydrological frequency analysis using Copulas[J].Water Resources Research,2004,40(1):290-294.
[5]Klein B,Pahlow M,Hundecha Y,et al.Probability Analysis of Hydrological Loads for the design of Flood Control Systems Using Copulas[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2014,15(5):360-369.
[6]范小黎,师长兴,周园园,等.黄河宁蒙段洪水过程变化特点[J].资源科学,2012,34(1):65-73.
[7]王新军,凌虹霞,王永强,等.黄河宁夏段2012年洪水分析[J].人民黄河,2014(8):31-33.
[8]Joe H.Multivariate Models and Dependence Concepts[M].London:Chapman&Hall,1997.
[9]Nelson RB.An introduction to Copulas[M].New York:Springer,1999.
[10]肖义.基于Copula函数的多变量水文分析计算研究[D].武汉:武汉大学,2007.
[11]郭生练,闫宝伟,肖义,等.Copula函数在多变量水文分析计算中的应用及研究进展[J].水文,2008,28(3):1-7.
[12]Yan J.Enjoy the Joy of Copulas:With a Package copula[J].Journal of Statistical Software,2007(10):1-21.
[13]熊立华,郭生练,肖义,等.Copula联结函数在多变量水文频率分析中的应用[J].武汉大学学报(工学版),2005,38(6):16-19.
[14]Yue S,Ouarda T,Bobee B,et al.The Gumbel mixed model for flood frequency analysis[J].Journal of Hydrology,1999,226(1-2):88-100.
[15]Singh V P,Zhang L.Bivariate Flood Frequency Analysis Using the Copula Method[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2006,11(2):150-164.
[16]闫宝伟,郭生练,郭靖,等.基于Copula函数的设计洪水地区组成研究[J].水力发电学报,2010,29(6):60-65.