人口抚养水平影响住房消费的溢出效应研究——基于省际面板数据的空间计量分析
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摘要
基于全国31个省(市、区)2000-2016年的面板数据,引入空间自相关方法以及空间杜宾模型,探讨人口抚养水平对住房消费的影响、区域住房消费空间自相关特性、人口抚养水平对住房消费的溢出效应和空间异质性。研究表明:少儿抚养水平的提高会抑制住房消费,老年抚养水平对住房消费产生积极影响;人口抚养水平对住房消费存在显著空间溢出效应,少儿抚养水平对邻近省市住房消费存在"虹吸效应",老年抚养水平对邻近区域住房消费存在"辐射效应";"二孩"政策诱发人口抚养水平对住房消费的溢出效应出现时间拐点,呈现先负后正变化趋势;人口抚养水平对住房消费的溢出效应存在显著区域异质性,呈现出中部向两边递增的空间特征。
Based on the panel data of 31 provinces(cities and districts) from 2000 to 2016, this paper introduces spatial autocorrelation method and spatial durbin model to explore the impact of population dependency level on housing consumption, spatial autocorrelation characteristics of regional housing consumption,spillover effect of population dependency level on housing consumption and spatial heterogeneity. The results show that the increase of child-rearing level will restrain housing consumption, and the elderly's support level has a positive impact on housing consumption; the population dependency level has a significant spatial spillover effect on housing consumption; the child-rearing level has a siphon effect on housing consumption in neighboring provinces and cities; and the elderly's support level has a radiation effect on housing consumption in neighboring areas; the "two-child" policy induces the spillover effect of population dependency level on housing consumption to appear a time inflection point, showing a negative trend before a positive trend. The spillover effect of population dependency level on housing consumption has a significant regional heterogeneity, showing the spatial characteristics of progressive increase from the central to both sides.
Based on the panel data of 31 provinces(cities and districts) from 2000 to 2016, this paper introduces spatial autocorrelation method and spatial durbin model to explore the impact of population dependency level on housing consumption, spatial autocorrelation characteristics of regional housing consumption,spillover effect of population dependency level on housing consumption and spatial heterogeneity. The results show that the increase of child-rearing level will restrain housing consumption, and the elderly's support level has a positive impact on housing consumption; the population dependency level has a significant spatial spillover effect on housing consumption; the child-rearing level has a siphon effect on housing consumption in neighboring provinces and cities; and the elderly's support level has a radiation effect on housing consumption in neighboring areas; the "two-child" policy induces the spillover effect of population dependency level on housing consumption to appear a time inflection point, showing a negative trend before a positive trend. The spillover effect of population dependency level on housing consumption has a significant regional heterogeneity, showing the spatial characteristics of progressive increase from the central to both sides.
引文
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[17]Lesage,J.,and Pace,R.K.Spatial Econometric Modeling of Origin Detination Flows[J].Journal of Regional Science,2008,48(5):941-967.
[2]Cocco,J.F.Portfolio Choice in The Presence of Housing[J].The Review of Financial Studies,2005,18(2):535-567.
[3]李超,倪鹏飞,万海远.中国住房需求持续高涨之谜:基于人口结构视角[J].经济研究,2015,(5):118-133.
[4]陈斌开,徐帆,谭力.人口结构转变与中国住房需求:1999~2025---基于人口普查数据的微观实证研究[J].金融研究,2012,(1):129-140.
[5]顾和军,周小跃,张晨怡.“全面二孩”、人口年龄结构变动对住房消费的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,(11):31-38.
[6]Lindh,T.,and Malmberg,B.Demography and Housing DemandWhat Can We Learn From Residential Construction Data[J].Journal of Population Economics,2008,21(3):521-539.
[7]王勤,蒋旻.人口年龄结构与住宅价格调控[J].上海金融,2011,(10):15-22.
[8]Mankiw,N.G.The Baby Boom,the Baby Bust,and the Housing Market[J].Regional Science and Urban Economics,1989,(2):235-258.
[9]徐建炜,徐奇渊,何帆.房价上涨背后的人口结构因素:国际经验与中国证据[J].世界经济,2012,(1):24-42.
[10]Ludwig,A.,and Slok,T.The Impact of Changes in Stock Prices and House Prices on Consumption in OECD Countrices[R].IMF.2002.
[11]Gan,J.Housing Wealth and Consumption Growth:Evidence from a Large Panel of Households[J].The Review of Financial Studies,2010,23(6),2229-2267.
[12]祝丹,赵昕东.人口年龄结构变动会影响住房财富效应吗?---基于中国省际面板数据的实证检验[J].消费经济,2015,(6):16-22.
[13]Modigliani,F.,and Brumberg,R.E.Utility Analysis and the Consumption Function:An Interpretation of Cross-section Data[J].Journal of Post Keynesian Economics,1954,(6):388-436.
[14]Anselin,L.Spatial Econometrics:Methods and Models[M].Dordrecht:Kluwer Academic Publishers,1988.
[15]LeSage,J.,and Pace,R.K.Introduction to Spatial Econometrics[M].Boca Raton:Chapman&Hall/CRC Press,2009.
[16]吴玉鸣.中国区域能源消费的决定因素及空间溢出效应---基于空间面板数据计量经济模型的实证[J].南京农业大学学报(社会科学版),2012,(4):124-132.
[17]Lesage,J.,and Pace,R.K.Spatial Econometric Modeling of Origin Detination Flows[J].Journal of Regional Science,2008,48(5):941-967.