粮食定价机制改革背景下农户生产决策行为研究
|
摘要
利用全国农村固定观察点东北三省和内蒙古2009年、2012年、2015年农户的面板数据,主要考虑利润、风险、家庭劳动力投入三个目标,构建农户多目标种植决策模型,对不同类型农户生产决策行为进行研究。结果表明:小农户除了考虑利润、风险目标外,耕地质量也是影响生产决策的重要因素。规模经营农户主要考虑利润、风险、家庭劳动力这三个目标,但是利润目标的权重低于风险目标或家庭劳动力目标的权重。小农户和规模经营农户的目标权重会随时间有所调整,共同点是对风险目标重视程度增加。随着粮食定价机制改革的推进,预计主产区农户对风险目标会越来越重视,政府的支持政策应更多关注于防范风险。
Using panel data of peasant households in the three provinces of northeast China and Nei Mongol Autonomous Region with fixed observation points in rural areas across the country in 2009,2012 and 2015,and mainly considering the three goals of profit, risk and household labor input, a multi-objective planting decision-making model was constructed to study the production decision-making behaviors of different types of peasant households. The results show that the quality of cultivated land is also an important factor affecting production decisions for small peasant households in addition to profit and risk objectives. The peasant households of scale operation mainly consider the three goals of profit,risk and household labor,but the weight of profit goal is lower than that of risk goal or household labor goal. The weight of target of small peasant households and peasant households of scale operation will be adjusted over time, and the common point is to attach more importance to risk objectives. With the advance of the reform of grain pricing mechanism, it is expected that peasant households in the main producing areas will pay more attention to risk objectives, and the supporting policies of the government should pay more attention to risk prevention.
Using panel data of peasant households in the three provinces of northeast China and Nei Mongol Autonomous Region with fixed observation points in rural areas across the country in 2009,2012 and 2015,and mainly considering the three goals of profit, risk and household labor input, a multi-objective planting decision-making model was constructed to study the production decision-making behaviors of different types of peasant households. The results show that the quality of cultivated land is also an important factor affecting production decisions for small peasant households in addition to profit and risk objectives. The peasant households of scale operation mainly consider the three goals of profit,risk and household labor,but the weight of profit goal is lower than that of risk goal or household labor goal. The weight of target of small peasant households and peasant households of scale operation will be adjusted over time, and the common point is to attach more importance to risk objectives. With the advance of the reform of grain pricing mechanism, it is expected that peasant households in the main producing areas will pay more attention to risk objectives, and the supporting policies of the government should pay more attention to risk prevention.
引文
[1]农业部关于印发《全国种植业结构调整规划(2016-2020年)》的通知[EB/OL].(2016-04-28)[2018-08-20].http://jiuban.moa.gov.cn/zwllm/tzgg/tz/201604/t20160428_5110638.htm.
[2]陈锡文.落实发展新理念破解农业新难题[J].农业经济问题,2016(3):4-10.
[3]钟真,孔祥智.市场信号、农户类型与农业生产经营行为的逻辑---来自鲁、晋、宁千余农户调查的证据[J].中国人民大学学报,2013(5):62-75.
[4]程名望,史清华,Jin Yanhong,等.市场化、政治身份及其收入效应---来自中国农户的证据[J].管理世界,2016(3):46-58.
[5]张红宇.发挥新型农业经营主体对改革的引领作用[N].经济日报,2017-02-10(15).
[6]ROBISON L J.An appraisal of expected utility hypothesis tests constructed from responses to hypothetical questions and experimental choices[J].American journal of agricultural economics,1982,64(2):367.
[7]REHMAN T,ROMERO C.The application of the MCDM paradigm to the management of agricultural systems:some basic considerations[J].Agricultural systems,1993,41(3):239-255.
[8]BERBEL J,RODRIGUEZ-OCAN軒A A.An MCDM approach to production analysis:an application to irrigated farms in Southern Spain[J].European journal of operational research,1998,107(1):108-118.
[9]MANOS B,BEGUM M A A,KAMRUZZAMAN M,et al.Fertilizer price policy,the environment and farms behavior[J].Journal of policy modeling,2007,29(1):87-97.
[10]刘莹,黄季焜.农户多目标种植决策模型与目标权重的估计[J].经济研究,2010(1):148-157.
[11]YANO H,SAKAWA M.Interactive fuzzy decision making for multiobjective fuzzy random linear programming problems and its application to a crop planning problem?[M]//MADANI K,et al.Studies in computational intelligence.Switzerland:Springer International Publishing,2014:143-157.
[12]VAN HUYLENBROECK G,URE N軒A CAMPOS E,VANSLEMBROUCK I.A(recursive)multiple objective approach to analyse changes in the utility function of farmers due to policy reforms[J].Applied mathematics&computation,2001,122(3):283-299.
[13]孟雪,李宾.多目标决策分析模型及应用研究[J].现代管理科学,2013(7):42-44.
(1)经营规模10亩以下的农户占85.5%,经营规模10~30亩的农户占10.5%,经营规模30~50亩的农户占2.6%。
(2)35~39.9亩、40~44.9亩、45~49.9亩、50~59.9亩、60~99.9亩、100亩及以上的占比分别为0.41%、0.34%、0.22%、0.31%、0.40%、0.22%。
(3)以2016年100亩、2006年35亩为依据计算年均增长率后估算得出。
(4)2009年、2012年、2015年玉米、大豆、水稻种植面积占农作物总种植面积的比例分别为73.83%、74.91%、77.92%。
(5)课题组调研了解。
(6)玉米临时收储价格取内蒙古、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江平均价格。
(7)也许和规模经营农户主要分布在黑龙江有关。
(8)玉米、水稻是托市收购价格;大豆是目标价格,为每斤2.4元。
(9)以黑龙江为例,大豆2015年目标价格补贴为每亩130.87元。加上目标价格补贴,大豆每亩亏损额少于玉米。
[2]陈锡文.落实发展新理念破解农业新难题[J].农业经济问题,2016(3):4-10.
[3]钟真,孔祥智.市场信号、农户类型与农业生产经营行为的逻辑---来自鲁、晋、宁千余农户调查的证据[J].中国人民大学学报,2013(5):62-75.
[4]程名望,史清华,Jin Yanhong,等.市场化、政治身份及其收入效应---来自中国农户的证据[J].管理世界,2016(3):46-58.
[5]张红宇.发挥新型农业经营主体对改革的引领作用[N].经济日报,2017-02-10(15).
[6]ROBISON L J.An appraisal of expected utility hypothesis tests constructed from responses to hypothetical questions and experimental choices[J].American journal of agricultural economics,1982,64(2):367.
[7]REHMAN T,ROMERO C.The application of the MCDM paradigm to the management of agricultural systems:some basic considerations[J].Agricultural systems,1993,41(3):239-255.
[8]BERBEL J,RODRIGUEZ-OCAN軒A A.An MCDM approach to production analysis:an application to irrigated farms in Southern Spain[J].European journal of operational research,1998,107(1):108-118.
[9]MANOS B,BEGUM M A A,KAMRUZZAMAN M,et al.Fertilizer price policy,the environment and farms behavior[J].Journal of policy modeling,2007,29(1):87-97.
[10]刘莹,黄季焜.农户多目标种植决策模型与目标权重的估计[J].经济研究,2010(1):148-157.
[11]YANO H,SAKAWA M.Interactive fuzzy decision making for multiobjective fuzzy random linear programming problems and its application to a crop planning problem?[M]//MADANI K,et al.Studies in computational intelligence.Switzerland:Springer International Publishing,2014:143-157.
[12]VAN HUYLENBROECK G,URE N軒A CAMPOS E,VANSLEMBROUCK I.A(recursive)multiple objective approach to analyse changes in the utility function of farmers due to policy reforms[J].Applied mathematics&computation,2001,122(3):283-299.
[13]孟雪,李宾.多目标决策分析模型及应用研究[J].现代管理科学,2013(7):42-44.
(1)经营规模10亩以下的农户占85.5%,经营规模10~30亩的农户占10.5%,经营规模30~50亩的农户占2.6%。
(2)35~39.9亩、40~44.9亩、45~49.9亩、50~59.9亩、60~99.9亩、100亩及以上的占比分别为0.41%、0.34%、0.22%、0.31%、0.40%、0.22%。
(3)以2016年100亩、2006年35亩为依据计算年均增长率后估算得出。
(4)2009年、2012年、2015年玉米、大豆、水稻种植面积占农作物总种植面积的比例分别为73.83%、74.91%、77.92%。
(5)课题组调研了解。
(6)玉米临时收储价格取内蒙古、辽宁、吉林、黑龙江平均价格。
(7)也许和规模经营农户主要分布在黑龙江有关。
(8)玉米、水稻是托市收购价格;大豆是目标价格,为每斤2.4元。
(9)以黑龙江为例,大豆2015年目标价格补贴为每亩130.87元。加上目标价格补贴,大豆每亩亏损额少于玉米。