北京山区单沟洪水模型预警系统研究——以孙胡沟为例
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摘要
山洪是山区中影响范围广,人员伤亡较大的一类地质灾害。针对山洪预警模型,国内外学者从多个角度对其进行过研究,研究区域多为大流域,方法多为雨量临界值预警。为了建立一套适用于北京山区小流域的山洪预警模型,本文研究了小流域单沟洪水模型预警在系统,此系统是基于充分的野外地质调查,在获得详细的沟域地质及土地利用数据后,利用合理的数学模型对流域内的降雨所产生的洪水产汇流过程进行全过程模拟,并对汇流过程中可能产生的灾害进行预警预报的一个系统。此单沟洪水模型具有精度高,计算结果准确的特点,其相应的预警系统能够对小范围居民区等重要建构筑物进行灾害预报,并预估人员撤离的安全时间,对实际的防灾减灾工作具有重要意义。
Mountain flood is a kind of common geological disaster in mountainous area,which has a wide influence and heavy casualties. As for the mountain flood warning model, domestic and foreign scholars have studied it from multiple perspectives.Most of the research objects are focused on the large watersheds, and the methods are adopted as rainfall critical value warning.In order to establish a set of flash flood warning model suitable for Beijing mountain watershed, this paper studies the singletrench flood early-warning model of small watershed. This system is established as a system of early warning based on plenty of field geological investigation, the detailed field geological and land use data, using a reasonable mathematical model of the basin rainfall flood aquatic confluence process generated by the whole process of simulation. The single-trench flood model has the characteristics of high accuracy and accurate calculation results, and its corresponding early-warning system can predict the disaster of important structures such as small residential areas, and estimate the safe time of evacuation, which is of great significance to the actual disaster prevention and reduction work. The system has a good demonstration effect on the calculation and three-dimensional simulation of mountain flood runoff in Beijing area, and provides decision-making basis for related departments in disaster prediction, personnel evacuation and standard formulation.
Mountain flood is a kind of common geological disaster in mountainous area,which has a wide influence and heavy casualties. As for the mountain flood warning model, domestic and foreign scholars have studied it from multiple perspectives.Most of the research objects are focused on the large watersheds, and the methods are adopted as rainfall critical value warning.In order to establish a set of flash flood warning model suitable for Beijing mountain watershed, this paper studies the singletrench flood early-warning model of small watershed. This system is established as a system of early warning based on plenty of field geological investigation, the detailed field geological and land use data, using a reasonable mathematical model of the basin rainfall flood aquatic confluence process generated by the whole process of simulation. The single-trench flood model has the characteristics of high accuracy and accurate calculation results, and its corresponding early-warning system can predict the disaster of important structures such as small residential areas, and estimate the safe time of evacuation, which is of great significance to the actual disaster prevention and reduction work. The system has a good demonstration effect on the calculation and three-dimensional simulation of mountain flood runoff in Beijing area, and provides decision-making basis for related departments in disaster prediction, personnel evacuation and standard formulation.
引文
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张火青,魏文秋,1996.天气雷达在洪水预警报中的应用[J].水利水电科技进展,(3):21-25.
张廷治,李守智,李祥云,等,1996.诱发山洪泥石流特强暴雨的特征[J].气象,(5):43-47.
霍风霖,张力,2014.北京山洪灾害防治体系现状与建议[J].中国防汛抗旱,24(3):13-15.
姜典,1984.推理公式法在暴雨时深关系不连续的应用[J].水文,(1):11-12+62.
李致家,刘金涛,葛文忠,等,2004.雷达估测降雨与水文模型的耦合在洪水预报中的应用[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),(6):601-606.
李大鸣,吕会娇,2011.山区暴雨泥石流预报数学模型的研究[J].中国农村水利水电,(6):24-28+35.
刘川佳仔,2013.北京小流域产流特点及暴雨洪水计算研究[D].清华大学.
罗东,2009.推求中小流域暴雨洪水方法探讨[J].气象水文海洋仪器,26(2):158-161.
马传波,2016.山区小流域洪水预警临界雨量值确定方法的研究与应用[J].吉林水利,(6):50-52+62.
芮孝芳,2004.水文学原理[M].北京:中国水利水电出版社.
宋瑶,程金花,胡晓静,等,2016.基于垂向混合产流模型的北京山区山洪预警模型构建[J].水土保持通报,36(3):353-357.
邵利萍,2009.无资料小流域洪水叠加计算方法初探[D].浙江大学.
孙东亚,2019.中国山洪灾害监测预警体系建设[J].中国防汛抗旱,29(2):4-5.
潭惠平,1999.特小流域设计洪水计算方法简析[J].河北水利水电技术,(2):23-24.
王亚娟,赵小伟,臧敏,等,2016.北京市“7·20”特大暴雨洪水分析[J].北京水务,(5):1-6.
王金如,顾小明,1998.北京的水害及防治[C]//中国灾害防御协会,北京减灾协会.中国减灾与新世纪发展战略——首届“中国21世纪安全减灾与可持续发展战略高级研讨会”论文集:5.
王礼先,于志民,2001.山洪及泥石流灾害预报[M].北京:中国林业出版社:1-23.
徐德龙,肖华,2000.小流域设计洪水推理公式计算方法探讨[J].人民长江,(7):13-14.
张火青,魏文秋,1996.天气雷达在洪水预警报中的应用[J].水利水电科技进展,(3):21-25.
张廷治,李守智,李祥云,等,1996.诱发山洪泥石流特强暴雨的特征[J].气象,(5):43-47.