泛长三角城市群开发程度的时空格局与影响因素
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摘要
综合运用修正后的开发指数、差异指数、空间分析相关方法及地理探测器等对2005—2016年泛长三角城市群开发程度的时空格局与影响因素进行研究。结果表明:(1) 2005—2016年泛长三角城市群开发程度的差异指数呈下降态势,表明城市开发程度的相对差异趋于缩小。(2)开发程度存在正的全局空间自相关性,冷点区与热点区局部空间格局经历了由集中到分散的演变过程。(3)开发重心在118. 519°～118. 895°E与30. 854°～31. 127°N之间变动,有向西南方向移动的趋势,开发程度大体呈"东北—西南"的空间分布格局。(4)影响开发程度空间格局的主要因素发生明显变化且存在空间异质性,经济发展水平和政府干预对城市群开发程度的影响力明显下降,取而代之的是对外贸易开放度和国内贸易状况。
Studying the spatial-temporal evolution and its influencing factors of the degree of urban development is of great significance to promoting the scientific development of the city. The modifies regional development index,difference index,spatial analysis-related methods and Geodetector are comprehensively used to study the spatial-temporal differentiation pattern and impact factors of the development degree in Pan-Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2005 to 2016. The results showed that:( 1) The difference index of urban development degree in Pan-Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration showed a download trend in fluctuation from 2005 to 2016,which indicates that the relative difference of urban development degree tend to shrink.( 2) There is a positive global spatial autocorrelation in urban development degree,and the spatial pattern of the cold spot area and the hot spot area of urban development degree has undergone a process from centralized distribution to dispersed distribution.( 3) The gravity center of urban development degree was between 118. 519° ～ 118. 895° E and 30. 854° ～31. 127°N and moved to the southwest. The spatial distribution of urban development degree presented a northeastsouthwest pattern.( 4) The main factors influencing spatial pattern of urban development level have obvious changes and spatial heterogeneity. The influence of economic development level and government intervention on urban development level obviously drops,which are replaced by the extent of domestic trade and foreign trade development.
Studying the spatial-temporal evolution and its influencing factors of the degree of urban development is of great significance to promoting the scientific development of the city. The modifies regional development index,difference index,spatial analysis-related methods and Geodetector are comprehensively used to study the spatial-temporal differentiation pattern and impact factors of the development degree in Pan-Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2005 to 2016. The results showed that:( 1) The difference index of urban development degree in Pan-Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration showed a download trend in fluctuation from 2005 to 2016,which indicates that the relative difference of urban development degree tend to shrink.( 2) There is a positive global spatial autocorrelation in urban development degree,and the spatial pattern of the cold spot area and the hot spot area of urban development degree has undergone a process from centralized distribution to dispersed distribution.( 3) The gravity center of urban development degree was between 118. 519° ～ 118. 895° E and 30. 854° ～31. 127°N and moved to the southwest. The spatial distribution of urban development degree presented a northeastsouthwest pattern.( 4) The main factors influencing spatial pattern of urban development level have obvious changes and spatial heterogeneity. The influence of economic development level and government intervention on urban development level obviously drops,which are replaced by the extent of domestic trade and foreign trade development.
引文
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[27]王录仓,武荣伟,刘海猛,等.县域尺度下中国人口老龄化的空间格局与区域差异[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(8):921-931.
[28] WANG J F,LI X H,CHRISTAKOS G,et al. Geographical Detectors-based Health Risk Assessment and Its Application in the Neural Tube Defects Study of the He Shun Region,China[J]. International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2010,24(1):107-127.
[29] LI X W,XIE Y F,WANG J F,et al. Influence of Planting Patterns on Fluoroquinolone Residues in the Soil of An Intensive Vegetable Cultivation Area in North China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2013,458/459/460:63-69.
[30]刘彦随,杨忍.中国县域城镇化的空间特征与形成机理[J].地理学报,2012,67(8):1011-1020.
[31]胡丹,舒晓波,尧波,等.江西省县域人均粮食占有量的时空格局演变[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(4):157-162.
[2]李小帆,邓宏兵.长江经济带新型城镇化协调性的空间差异与时空演化[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(5):725-732.
[3]牛方曲,刘卫东,宋涛,等.城市群多层次空间结构分析算法及其应用——以京津冀城市群为例[J].地理研究,2015,34(8):1447-1460.
[4] CHEN A,PARTRIDGE M D. When Are Cities Engines of Growth in China? Spread and Backwash Effects across the Urban Hierarchy[J]. Regional Studies,2013,47(8):1313-1331.
[5]王新越,秦素贞,吴宁宁.新型城镇化的内涵、测度及其区域差异研究[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(4):69-75.
[6]黄金川,林浩曦.京津冀城市群多情景空间演化模拟[J].地理研究,2017,36(3):506-517.
[7]张荣天,焦华富.泛长三角城市发展效率时空格局演化与驱动机制[J].经济地理,2014,34(5):48-54.
[8]刘贺贺,杨青山,陈长瑶.东北地区城市效率与开发程度的时空耦合[J].经济地理,2015,35(10):64-72.
[9]曹靖,李星银,陈婷婷,等.基于空间增长模拟的安庆城市开发边界划定方法及管控策略[J].规划师,2016,32(6):23-30.
[10]刘洋,陈英,张玉娇,等.基于MCE-CA模型的快速城镇化地区开发区边界划定——以山东省惠民经济开发区为例[J].地域研究与开发,2017,36(6):39-44.
[11]陈伟强,潘元庆,马月红,等.基于约束性CA模型的城市开发边界划定方法[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(4):278-284.
[12]陈雅薇,维格曼斯.荷兰城市开发过程管理及其对中国的启示[J].贺璟寰,译.国际城市规划,2011,26(3):1-8.
[13]许景权.空间规划改革视角下的城市开发边界研究:弹性、规模与机制[J].规划师,2016,32(6):5-9.
[14]张晓瑞,宗跃光.城市开发的资源利用效率测度与评价:基于30个省会城市的实证研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010,20(5):95-101.
[15]杨东奇,李一军.基于DEA的城市管理绩效评价研究[J].中国软科学,2006(2):146-149.
[16]陈真玲.基于模型的中国省会城市开发效益分析[J].数学的实践与认识,2014,44(16):73-81.
[17]刘贺贺,杨青山,张鹏,等.内蒙古经济发展与开发程序空间匹配研究[J].世界地理研究,2015,24(1):76-84.
[18]刘艳军,王颖.东北地区区域开发程度演化及其资源环境影响[J].经济地理,2012,32(5):37-42.
[19]吴加伟,袁丰,吕卫国,等.金融危机下泛长三角FDI时空格局演化及其机制研究[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(12):1601-1613.
[20]陈江龙,李平星,高金龙. 1990—2014年泛长三角地区能源利用碳排放时空格局及影响因素[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(12):1472-1482.
[21]陈培阳,朱喜钢.福建省区域经济差异及其空间格局演化[J].地域研究与开发,2009,28(1):53-67.
[22]张慧,王洋.中国耕地压力的空间分异及社会经济因素影响——基于342个地级行政区的面板数据[J].地理研究,2017,36(4):731-742.
[23]王慧,孙晋芳,余静.山东省县域经济时空分异演化特征研究[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(5):16-20.
[24]邵留长,乔家君,汪永新.河南省县域经济空间结构及演进特征[J].地域研究与开发,2016,35(1):64-69.
[25]赵媛,杨足膺,郝丽莎,等.中国石油资源流动源-汇系统空间格局特征[J].地理学报,2012,67(4):455-466.
[26]赵作权.地理空间分布整体统计研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2009,28(1):1-8.
[27]王录仓,武荣伟,刘海猛,等.县域尺度下中国人口老龄化的空间格局与区域差异[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(8):921-931.
[28] WANG J F,LI X H,CHRISTAKOS G,et al. Geographical Detectors-based Health Risk Assessment and Its Application in the Neural Tube Defects Study of the He Shun Region,China[J]. International Journal of Geographical Information Science,2010,24(1):107-127.
[29] LI X W,XIE Y F,WANG J F,et al. Influence of Planting Patterns on Fluoroquinolone Residues in the Soil of An Intensive Vegetable Cultivation Area in North China[J].Science of the Total Environment,2013,458/459/460:63-69.
[30]刘彦随,杨忍.中国县域城镇化的空间特征与形成机理[J].地理学报,2012,67(8):1011-1020.
[31]胡丹,舒晓波,尧波,等.江西省县域人均粮食占有量的时空格局演变[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(4):157-162.