中国石油进口贸易的时空格局、发展困境与趋势展望
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摘要
石油贸易的地缘政治与经济博弈从未间断,直接影响中国能源安全与"中国制造2025"战略的实施。文章根据1996—2016年中国石油进口贸易的数据,分析了中国石油供需状况及进口贸易的动态特征,刻画了中国石油进口贸易的空间格局图景,指出了当前中国石油进口贸易的困境和发展趋势。结果表明:从中国石油进口贸易动态特征看,进口贸易规模大且进口比重逐年上升,进口依存度不断提升,进口价格频繁波动。从其空间格局演化看,进口的地理方向不断扩展,由局部地缘供给依赖转变为"多元并存"的"碎片化关联"模式。从发展趋势看,高依存度下的中国石油进口贸易仍面临着价格波动剧烈、进口结算方式单一、进口成本居高不下、地缘政治因素复杂多变等困境。因此,新时期完善中国石油期货市场,争取国际石油定价的话语权,推进能源大通道建设,构建石油运输的立体布局,加强石油贸易国之间的政治互信和政策沟通是推进中国石油进口贸易发展的重点。
The constant conflicts in geopolitics and economy of oil trade directly affect the implementation of China's energy security and 2025 strategy of manufacturing. Based on the data of China's oil import trade from 1996 to 2016, this study analyzed the supply and demand conditions of China's oil and the dynamic characteristics of import trade, the spatial pattern of China's oil import trade, the current plights and development trend of China's oil import trade. The results show that: from the point of the dynamic characteristics of China's oil import trade, its scale and proportion increase year by year, the import dependency constantly rises and the import prices fluctuates frequently. From the evolution of the spatial pattern, it continuously expands the scope of the geographical supply and changes the pattern from the local geographical supply to the "multivariate coexistence" and "fragmentation association". In terms of the development trend, China's oil import still faces many dilemmas, such as large fluctuations in oil prices, the single way of settlement, the high cost, complex and changeable geopolitical factors. This study puts forward that it needs to improve China's oil futures market, dominate the right on the international oil pricing, promote the construction of a large energy corridor, build a three-dimensional layout of oil transportation, and strengthen political mutual trust and policy communication with oil trading countries.
The constant conflicts in geopolitics and economy of oil trade directly affect the implementation of China's energy security and 2025 strategy of manufacturing. Based on the data of China's oil import trade from 1996 to 2016, this study analyzed the supply and demand conditions of China's oil and the dynamic characteristics of import trade, the spatial pattern of China's oil import trade, the current plights and development trend of China's oil import trade. The results show that: from the point of the dynamic characteristics of China's oil import trade, its scale and proportion increase year by year, the import dependency constantly rises and the import prices fluctuates frequently. From the evolution of the spatial pattern, it continuously expands the scope of the geographical supply and changes the pattern from the local geographical supply to the "multivariate coexistence" and "fragmentation association". In terms of the development trend, China's oil import still faces many dilemmas, such as large fluctuations in oil prices, the single way of settlement, the high cost, complex and changeable geopolitical factors. This study puts forward that it needs to improve China's oil futures market, dominate the right on the international oil pricing, promote the construction of a large energy corridor, build a three-dimensional layout of oil transportation, and strengthen political mutual trust and policy communication with oil trading countries.
引文
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[16]李永,付智博,李海英.中国石油进口贸易联系稳定性测度——对1992—2012年经验数据的考察[J].管理评论,2016,28(9):17-30.
[17]王正明,杨阳.我国石油进口来源结构的安全度分析[J].工业技术经济,2015,34(9):99-105.
[18]李坤望,孙玮.我国石油进口需求弹性分析[J].当代财经,2008(4):89-94.
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[20]杨洋,董锁成,李泽红.中蒙俄经济走廊背景下中俄能源合作进展、驱动力、挑战及对策[J].资源科学,2018,40(2):237-249.
[21]周申,刘辰,杨超.中国石油进口“买涨不买落”的经验研究和博弈分析[J].国际贸易问题,2005(9):16-21.
[22]蔡玲.发展石油期货市场争夺石油定价权[J].中国对外贸易,2008(7):86-87.
[23] Hamilton J D. Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of2007-08[J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2009(1-Spring):262-283.
[24] Kesicki F. The third oil price surge-What’s different this time?[J]. Energy Policy,2010,38(3):1 596-1 606.
[25]郝丽莎,赵媛.非洲在世界石油供给格局中的地位演变[J].地理研究,2012,31(3):507-520.
[26]赵冰,王诺. 21世纪初期世界石油流动的空间格局与流场特征研究[J].经济地理,2010,30(6):886-892.
[27]陈志建,王铮.全球石油供应下新地缘政治经济格局分析[J].世界地理研究,2015,24(3):1-13.
[28] Hong L,Lin S X. Do emerging markets matter in the world oil pricing system? Evidence of imported crude by China and India[J]. Energy Policy,2011,39(8):4 624-4 630.
[2]邱研,郭谦,吴殿廷.我国石油进口海陆统筹战略研究[J].世界地理研究,2012,21(3):77-83.
[3] Erickson A S,Collins G B. China's Oil Security Pipe Dream:The Reality,and Strategic Consequences,of Seaborne Imports[J]. Naval War College Review,2010,63(2):89-102.
[4]杨宇,刘毅,金凤君.世界石油探明储量分布特征与空间格局演化[J].世界地理研究,2014,23(1):19-28.
[5]冯磊.石油进口贸易的现状、问题及对策[J].宏观经济管理,2013(10):59-60,71.
[6]汪玲玲,赵媛.中国石油进口运输通道安全态势分析及对策研究[J].世界地理研究,2014,23(3):33-43.
[7]李振福,汤晓雯,姚丽丽,等.北极通道开发与中国石油进口通道格局变化[J].资源科学,2015,37(8):1 639-1 649.
[8]李嘉.石油运输安全与远洋运输保障分析[J].中国石油石化,2017(2):138-139.
[9]李春顶,马荣,赵美英.“后危机时代”我国石油进口战略及政策选择[J].太平洋学报,2011,19(3):54-64.
[10] Wu G,Wei Y M,Fan Y,et al. An empirical analysis of the risk of crude oil imports in China using improved portfolio approach[J]. Energy Policy,2007,35(8):4 190-4 199.
[11] Sun M,Gao C,Shen B. Quantifying China's oil import risks and the impact on the national economy[J]. Energy Policy,2014,67(C):605-611.
[12] Bal D P,Rath B N. Nonlinear causality between crude oil price and exchange rate:A comparative study of China and India[J]. Energy Economics,2015,51:149-156.
[13]唐衍伟,黄运成,杨婕.中国石油进口参与国际定价的现状、趋势及策略分析[J].资源科学,2007(1):184-189.
[14]王炜瀚,杨良敏,徐铮.人民币国际化视野下中国石油进口的人民币结算探讨[J].财贸经济,2011(1):108-115,137.
[15]林建,王安建,于汶加,等.石油期货市场机制及对中国石油安全的影响[J].地球学报,2010,31(5):693-698.
[16]李永,付智博,李海英.中国石油进口贸易联系稳定性测度——对1992—2012年经验数据的考察[J].管理评论,2016,28(9):17-30.
[17]王正明,杨阳.我国石油进口来源结构的安全度分析[J].工业技术经济,2015,34(9):99-105.
[18]李坤望,孙玮.我国石油进口需求弹性分析[J].当代财经,2008(4):89-94.
[19]王强,陈俊华.基于供给安全的我国石油进口来源地风险评价[J].世界地理研究,2014,23(1):37-44.
[20]杨洋,董锁成,李泽红.中蒙俄经济走廊背景下中俄能源合作进展、驱动力、挑战及对策[J].资源科学,2018,40(2):237-249.
[21]周申,刘辰,杨超.中国石油进口“买涨不买落”的经验研究和博弈分析[J].国际贸易问题,2005(9):16-21.
[22]蔡玲.发展石油期货市场争夺石油定价权[J].中国对外贸易,2008(7):86-87.
[23] Hamilton J D. Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of2007-08[J]. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2009(1-Spring):262-283.
[24] Kesicki F. The third oil price surge-What’s different this time?[J]. Energy Policy,2010,38(3):1 596-1 606.
[25]郝丽莎,赵媛.非洲在世界石油供给格局中的地位演变[J].地理研究,2012,31(3):507-520.
[26]赵冰,王诺. 21世纪初期世界石油流动的空间格局与流场特征研究[J].经济地理,2010,30(6):886-892.
[27]陈志建,王铮.全球石油供应下新地缘政治经济格局分析[J].世界地理研究,2015,24(3):1-13.
[28] Hong L,Lin S X. Do emerging markets matter in the world oil pricing system? Evidence of imported crude by China and India[J]. Energy Policy,2011,39(8):4 624-4 630.