“印-太”地区经济发展与地缘经济格局演进
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摘要
文章从地缘经济视角出发,分析三个问题:一是通过比较"印-太"与"亚太"的经济发展动态及互动,对世界经济中心转移的"印-太"缘起论进行再审视;二是通过分析"印-太"地缘经济格局的阶段性变化,比较"印-太"战略合作方(美日澳印)及其平衡对象(中国)对地区经济的贡献度,为"印-太"战略遏制中国可能损害地区经济发展提供证据;三是比较分析中美日澳印五国在"印-太"地区的经济投入度,藉此解释各国对"印-太"战略的态度差异,并就加强"印-太"地区地缘经济合作提出一些思考。
since 2013,the Concept of Indo-pacific has risen to the national strategic level of the United States,Japan,Australia and India, which has led to a research boom in geopolitics, security and economic issues in this region. From the perspective of geo-economics,this paper mainly discusses three issues : First,discuss the two arguments of "the transfer of world economic centers" and the "counterbalancing China' s increasing geo presence" through comparing the economic development dynamics of "Indo-Pacific" and "Asia-Pacific" and analyzing the economic interaction between the two regions; Second,provide evidences that "Indo-Pacific" strategy may impede regional economic development by analyzing the periodic changes of the "Indo-Pacific" geo-economic pattern and comparing the influence and contribution of "Indo-Pacific" strategic partners(the U. S.,Japan, Australia and India) and their balancing object(China); Third,put forward some thoughts on strengthening the geopolitical and economic cooperation in the "Indo-Pacific" region.
since 2013,the Concept of Indo-pacific has risen to the national strategic level of the United States,Japan,Australia and India, which has led to a research boom in geopolitics, security and economic issues in this region. From the perspective of geo-economics,this paper mainly discusses three issues : First,discuss the two arguments of "the transfer of world economic centers" and the "counterbalancing China' s increasing geo presence" through comparing the economic development dynamics of "Indo-Pacific" and "Asia-Pacific" and analyzing the economic interaction between the two regions; Second,provide evidences that "Indo-Pacific" strategy may impede regional economic development by analyzing the periodic changes of the "Indo-Pacific" geo-economic pattern and comparing the influence and contribution of "Indo-Pacific" strategic partners(the U. S.,Japan, Australia and India) and their balancing object(China); Third,put forward some thoughts on strengthening the geopolitical and economic cooperation in the "Indo-Pacific" region.
引文
[1]Khurana G S. Security of Sea Lines. Prospects for India–Japan Cooperation[J]. Strategic Analysis,2007,31(1):139-153.
[2] Scott David. The “Indo-Pacific”—New Regional Formulations and New Maritime Frameworks for US-India StrategicConvergence[J]. Asia-Pacific Review?,2012,19(2):85-109.
[3] Medcalf Rory. A term whose time has come:the Indo-Pacific[N/OL]. The Diplomat 2012-12-04[2018-10-12]. https://thediplomat. com/2012/12/a-term-whose-time-has-come-the-indo-pacific/
[4] Medcalf Rory. Reimagining Asia:From Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific[M]. International Relations and Asia’ s SouthernTier. Springer,Singapore,2018. 9-28.
[5]吴兆礼.“印太”的缘起与多国战略博弈[J].太平洋学报,2014(1),29-40.
[6]夏立平.地缘政治与地缘经济双重视角下的美国“印太”战略[J].美国研究,2015(2),32-51.
[7]刘宗义.冲突还是合作?—“印太”地区的地缘政治和地缘经济选择[J].印度洋经济体研究,2014(4),4-20.
[8]朱清秀.日本的“印太”战略能否成功?[J].东北亚论坛,2016(3),16-35.
(1)印-太地区共50个国家,包括东盟10+3国:文莱、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚、老挝、马来西亚、缅甸、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国、越南和中国(不包括港澳台)、日本、韩国;澳洲2国:澳大利亚、新西兰;南盟8国:印度、尼泊尔、不丹、孟加拉国、巴基斯坦、阿富汗、斯里兰卡和马尔代夫;海合会6+2:伊朗、伊拉克、巴林、科威特、阿曼、卡塔尔、沙特、阿联酋;东部和南部非洲共同市场19国:布隆迪、科摩罗、刚果民主共和国、吉布提、埃及、厄立特里亚、埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚、利比亚、马达加斯加、马拉维、毛里求斯、卢旺达、塞舌尔、苏丹、斯威斯兰、乌干达、赞比亚、津巴布韦。
(2)本研究中,“亚太”与“印-太”地区的交叉国家有:中、日、韩,文莱、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、新加坡、菲律宾、泰国、越南、澳大利亚和新西兰。两个区域对全球经济的影响力不能简单相加,但进行比较并不需要剔除重复地区的影响因子。后续研究中,在需要时会对重复地区数据进行处理。
[2] Scott David. The “Indo-Pacific”—New Regional Formulations and New Maritime Frameworks for US-India StrategicConvergence[J]. Asia-Pacific Review?,2012,19(2):85-109.
[3] Medcalf Rory. A term whose time has come:the Indo-Pacific[N/OL]. The Diplomat 2012-12-04[2018-10-12]. https://thediplomat. com/2012/12/a-term-whose-time-has-come-the-indo-pacific/
[4] Medcalf Rory. Reimagining Asia:From Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific[M]. International Relations and Asia’ s SouthernTier. Springer,Singapore,2018. 9-28.
[5]吴兆礼.“印太”的缘起与多国战略博弈[J].太平洋学报,2014(1),29-40.
[6]夏立平.地缘政治与地缘经济双重视角下的美国“印太”战略[J].美国研究,2015(2),32-51.
[7]刘宗义.冲突还是合作?—“印太”地区的地缘政治和地缘经济选择[J].印度洋经济体研究,2014(4),4-20.
[8]朱清秀.日本的“印太”战略能否成功?[J].东北亚论坛,2016(3),16-35.
(1)印-太地区共50个国家,包括东盟10+3国:文莱、柬埔寨、印度尼西亚、老挝、马来西亚、缅甸、菲律宾、新加坡、泰国、越南和中国(不包括港澳台)、日本、韩国;澳洲2国:澳大利亚、新西兰;南盟8国:印度、尼泊尔、不丹、孟加拉国、巴基斯坦、阿富汗、斯里兰卡和马尔代夫;海合会6+2:伊朗、伊拉克、巴林、科威特、阿曼、卡塔尔、沙特、阿联酋;东部和南部非洲共同市场19国:布隆迪、科摩罗、刚果民主共和国、吉布提、埃及、厄立特里亚、埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚、利比亚、马达加斯加、马拉维、毛里求斯、卢旺达、塞舌尔、苏丹、斯威斯兰、乌干达、赞比亚、津巴布韦。
(2)本研究中,“亚太”与“印-太”地区的交叉国家有:中、日、韩,文莱、印度尼西亚、马来西亚、新加坡、菲律宾、泰国、越南、澳大利亚和新西兰。两个区域对全球经济的影响力不能简单相加,但进行比较并不需要剔除重复地区的影响因子。后续研究中,在需要时会对重复地区数据进行处理。