中国与中亚地区地缘经济关联度的时空演变与类型划分
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摘要
中亚地区是"一带一路"倡议的重要组成区域,地缘经济是"一带一路"倡议的重要合作内容,研究中国与中亚地区的地缘经济关联度对于促进双方合作具有重要意义。文章基于世界银行的数据,运用引力模型法对中国与中亚地区地缘经济关联度的时空演变特征进行了分析,并归纳了双方地缘经济关联度的不同类型。结果表明:(1)中国与中亚地区的地缘经济关联度总体呈快速增长态势,但不同国家间差异显著,并可以2005年为界分为平稳变化阶段和快速增长阶段;(2)中国与中亚地区地缘经济关联度的空间分布格局呈现出稳中有变的特征,哈萨克斯坦及塔吉克斯坦的格局较为稳定,而其余三国则相对多变;(3)中国与中亚地区的地缘经济关联度可划分为高度关联型、中度关联型和低度关联型。研究对于厘清中国与中亚地区的地缘经济关联度及不同类型、推动双方的地缘经济合作及"一带一路"建设具有一定的积极意义。
Central Asia is an important component of the Belt and Road initiative(BRI) and the geo-economic is an important part of the BRI, so it has great significance to study the geo-economic correlation degree between China and Central Asia in promoting cooperation and development. Based on the data obtained from World Bank, this paper applied the gravitational model to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of geo-economic correlation degree between China and Central Asia form 1992-2015, and summed up the different types of geo-economic correlation degree between them. The main results are following:(1) The geo-economic correlation degree between China and Central Asia has shown a rapid growth trend, but the differences between different countries are significant, and it can be divided into a stable change phase and a rapid growth phase of which the year of 2005 is inflection point.(2) The spatial distribution pattern of geo-economic correlation degree between China and Central Asia is characterized by stability with change, and the pattern of Kazakhstan and Tajikistan is relatively stable, while the other three countries are relatively variable.(3) The geo-economic correlation degree between China and Central Asia can be divided into 3 types, for highly correlated, moderately correlated and lowly correlated, of which including Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, respectively. This study might have a positive significance in clarifying the geo-economic correlation degree and different types between China and Central Asia, promoting geo-economic cooperation between the two sides, and building the BRI.
Central Asia is an important component of the Belt and Road initiative(BRI) and the geo-economic is an important part of the BRI, so it has great significance to study the geo-economic correlation degree between China and Central Asia in promoting cooperation and development. Based on the data obtained from World Bank, this paper applied the gravitational model to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution of geo-economic correlation degree between China and Central Asia form 1992-2015, and summed up the different types of geo-economic correlation degree between them. The main results are following:(1) The geo-economic correlation degree between China and Central Asia has shown a rapid growth trend, but the differences between different countries are significant, and it can be divided into a stable change phase and a rapid growth phase of which the year of 2005 is inflection point.(2) The spatial distribution pattern of geo-economic correlation degree between China and Central Asia is characterized by stability with change, and the pattern of Kazakhstan and Tajikistan is relatively stable, while the other three countries are relatively variable.(3) The geo-economic correlation degree between China and Central Asia can be divided into 3 types, for highly correlated, moderately correlated and lowly correlated, of which including Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, respectively. This study might have a positive significance in clarifying the geo-economic correlation degree and different types between China and Central Asia, promoting geo-economic cooperation between the two sides, and building the BRI.
引文
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[27]王明清.中国东北与俄罗斯远东地缘经济关系研究. 2016,东北师范大学,博士:192.
[28]李同昇,龙冬平.中亚国家地缘位置与中国地缘战略的若干思考.地理科学进展,2014,33(3):303-314.
[29] Zipf. The P1 P2/D hypothesis:on the intercity movement of persons. American sociological review,1946,11(6):677-686.
[30]李正.地缘经济地域系统关联结构理论与实证. 2014,东北师范大学,博士:186.
[31]李山,王铮,钟章奇.旅游空间相互作用的引力模型及其应用.地理学报,2012,67(4):526-544.
[32]俞路.语言文化对“一带一路”沿线各国双边贸易的影响.世界地理研究,2017,26(5):21-31.
[33]朱道才,陆林,晋秀龙,等.基于引力模型的安徽城市空间格局研究.地理科学,2011,31(5):551-556.
[2]陆大道,杜德斌.关于加强地缘政治地缘经济研究的思考.地理学报,2013,68(06):723-727.
[3]张杰,袁野.中国的中亚地缘战略及其对“丝绸之路经济带”的影响.世界地理研究,2016,25(01):22-30.
[4]毛汉英.中国周边地缘政治与地缘经济格局和对策.地理科学进展,2014,33(03):289-302.
[5]方创琳,毛汉英,鲍超,等.“丝绸之路经济带”中亚能源合作开发对我国能源安全的保障风险及防控建议.中国科学院院刊,2018,33(06):554-562.
[6]赵亚博,方创琳.中国与中亚地区油气资源合作开发模式与前景分析.世界地理研究,2014,23(1):29-36.
[7] Kim Y., Indeo F. The new great game in central Asia post 2014:The US “New Silk Road”strategy and Sino-Russian rivalry. Communist and Post-Communist Studies,2013,46(2):275-286.
[8]杜哲元.“一带一路”建设与当代新疆地缘战略价值论析.世界地理研究,2017,26(5):32-43.
[9]秦放鸣,张力民,毕燕茹.从投资角度看中国与中亚国家区域经济合作.开发研究,2012,(2):1-5.
[10]苏丽娟,陈兴鹏.丝绸之路经济带背景下贸易一体化与经济增长研究——基于中国与中亚五国的数据.兰州大学学报(社会科学版),2017,45(1):137-144.
[11]公丕萍,宋周莺,刘卫东.中国与俄罗斯及中亚地区的贸易格局分析.地理研究,2015,34(5):812-824.
[12]杜德斌,马亚华.中国崛起的国际地缘战略研究.世界地理研究,2012,21(1):1-16.
[13]赵亚博,方创琳,王少剑.中亚地区油气资源开发及对中国油气进口战略影响的探讨.干旱区地理,2014,37(5):1036-1046.
[14] Hu B. Oil and gas cooperation between China and Central Asia in an environment of political and resource competition. Petroleum Science,2014,11(4):596-605.
[15]杨宇,刘毅,金凤君.能源地缘政治视角下中国与中亚—俄罗斯国际能源合作模式.地理研究,2015,34(2):213-224.
[16]闫鸿毅,李世群,徐行.中亚三国石油合同模式研究.俄罗斯中亚东欧市场,2010,(5):17-24.
[17]毛汉英.中国与俄罗斯及中亚五国能源合作前景展望.地理科学进展,2013,32(10):1433-1443.
[18]赵亚博,刘晓凤,葛岳静.“一带一路”沿线国家油气资源分布格局及其与中国合作中的相互依赖关系.地理研究,2017,36(12):2305-2320.
[19] Koh S.G.M., Kwok A.O.J. Regional integration in Central Asia:Rediscovering the Silk Road.Tourism Management Perspectives,2017,22:64-66.
[20] Huang Y. Understanding China's Belt&Road Initiative:Motivation, framework and assessment. China Economic Review,2016,40:314-321.
[21]赵常庆.评中国与中亚国家的经济关系.欧亚经济,2014,(2):81-87.
[22]屈沙.“一带一路”背景下中国与中亚地区农产品贸易研究.经营管理者,2017,(1):227.
[23]沈琼.“一带一路”战略背景下中国与中亚农业合作探析.河南农业大学学报,2016,50(1):140-146.
[24]杨文龙,杜德斌,刘承良,等.中国地缘经济联系的时空演化特征及其内部机制.地理学报,2016,71(6):956-969.
[25]苏东辉,骆华松,蔡定昆.区外大国与东南亚地缘经济关系测度分析.世界地理研究,2013,22(1):1-11.
[26]王楠.中蒙地缘经济发展路径探析.世界地理研究,2014,23(3):44-51.
[27]王明清.中国东北与俄罗斯远东地缘经济关系研究. 2016,东北师范大学,博士:192.
[28]李同昇,龙冬平.中亚国家地缘位置与中国地缘战略的若干思考.地理科学进展,2014,33(3):303-314.
[29] Zipf. The P1 P2/D hypothesis:on the intercity movement of persons. American sociological review,1946,11(6):677-686.
[30]李正.地缘经济地域系统关联结构理论与实证. 2014,东北师范大学,博士:186.
[31]李山,王铮,钟章奇.旅游空间相互作用的引力模型及其应用.地理学报,2012,67(4):526-544.
[32]俞路.语言文化对“一带一路”沿线各国双边贸易的影响.世界地理研究,2017,26(5):21-31.
[33]朱道才,陆林,晋秀龙,等.基于引力模型的安徽城市空间格局研究.地理科学,2011,31(5):551-556.