《2008年汶川地震:灾难剖析》第四章:地震危险性和灾害风险评估
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摘要
<正>4.0引言中国的地震预报工作有许多值得借鉴的经验与教训,其中最重要的教训就是:无论其未来潜力如何,就目前而言,依赖地震预报来预防地震灾害是不切实际的。切实可行的做法是在地震危险性评估的基础上,加强建筑环境的抗震能力(图4.1)。
引文
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Lee S P.1957.The map of seismicity of China.Chin JGeophys.6(2):127-158.(in Chinese)
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State Seismological Bureau.1977.Seismic Hazard Map of China and Explanations.Beijing:Seismological Press.(in Chinese)
State Seismological Bureau.1992.Explanations of Seismic Hazard Map of China(1:4 000 000).Beijing:Seismological Press.(in Chinese)
State Seismological Bureau.1996.Introduction to Seismic Hazard Map of China(1990).Beijing:Seismological Press.(in Chinese)
Tian W,Chen Z,Xiang X,et al.2008.Analysis of and reflections on building damage caused by the 12May Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan.Sichuan Constr Sci,34(6):123-129.(in Chinese)
Wang K L,Chen Q F,Sun S H,et al.2006.Predicting the 1975 Haicheng earthquake.Bull Seismol Soc Amer,96(3):757-795.
Wang L,Tao Y.Yuan Y,et al.2005.Overview of the Earthquake-safe Rural Housing Demonstration Project of China.Northwest Seismo J,27(4):305-311.(in Chinese)
Wang W M,Zhao L F,Li J,et al.2008.Rupture process of the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of Sichuan,China.Chin J Geophys,51(5):1403-1410.(in Chinese)
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Zhang H,Xiang D,Hu Y.2009.Earthquake-safe Rural Housing Project in Deyang City passed the test of the great Wenchuan earthquake.Cities and Hazard Mitigation,3:25-28.(in Chinese)
Zhang Z W,Cheng W Z,Zhang Y J,et al.2009.Research on seismicity and source parameters of small earthquake in Zipingpu Dam before Wenchuan M8.0earthquake.Earthquake Res China,25(4):367-376.(in Chinese)
Chen Q F,Chen Y,Liu J,et al.1997.Quick and approximate estimation of earthquake loss based on macroscopic index of exposure and population distribution.Nat Hazards,15(2/3):215-229.
Chen Y.2009.Did the reservoir impoundment trigger the Wenchuan earthquake.Sci China Ser D-Earth Sci,52(4):431-433.
Chen Y,Tsoi K L,Chen F B,et al.1988.The Great Tangshan Earthquake of 1976:An Anatomy of Disaster.Oxford:Pergamon Press.
Chen Y,Chen Q F,Liu J,et al.2002.Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis:A Simplified Approach.Beijing:Science Press.
Civil and Structural Groups of Tsinghua University,Southwest Jiaotong University,Beijing Jiaotong University.2008.Analysis on seismic damage of buildings in the Wenchuan earthquake.J Build Struct,29(4):1-9.(in Chinese)
Earthquake Office of Ministry of Construction.1990.Training Materials for Code for Seismic Design of Buildings GBJ11-89.Beijing:Seismological Press.(in Chinese)
Gao M T.2003.New national seismic zoning map of China.Acta Seismol Sin,16(6):639-645.
Henan Province.2009.Rural housing and housing structure map set.http://www.zhufang123.com/.Accessed 15Apr 2011.
Hu Y,Gao M,Xu Z,et al.2001.Seismic Ground Motion Parameter Zonation Map of China GB18306-2001.Beijing:China Standards Publishing House.(in Chinese)
Huang Q H.2008.Seismicity changes prior to the MS8.0Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan,China.Geophys Res Lett.35,L23308.doi:10.1029/2008GL036270
Chen J,Hayes G.2008.Finite fault modelpreliminary result of the May 12,2008 MW7.9eastern Sichuan,China earthquake.http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqinthenews/2008/us2008ryan/finite_fault.php.Accessed 23Mar 2011.
Kerr R A,Stone R.2009.A human trigger for the great quake of Sichuan?Science,323(5912):322.
Lafraniere S.2009.Possible link between dam and China quake.http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/06/world/asia/06quake.html.Accessed 15Apr 2011.
Lee S P.1957.The map of seismicity of China.Chin JGeophys.6(2):127-158.(in Chinese)
Lu M.2006.Guidelines for Seismic Design in Rural Housing.Beijing:Seismological Press.(in Chinese)
Ministry of Construction of the Peoples Republic of China.1979.TJ11-78 Seismic design of industrial and civil buildings.Beijing:China architecture&Building Press.(in Chinese)
Ministry of Construction of the Peoples Republic of China.2001.GB50011-2001,Code for Seismic Design of Buildings.Beijing:China architecture&Building Press.(in Chinese)
Moore M.2009.Chinese earthquake may have been man-made,say scientists.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/4434400/Chinese-earthquake-may-have-been-man-madesay-scientists.html.Accessed 15Apr 2011.
Risk Management Solutions.2008.The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake:Risk Management Lessons and Implications.http://www.rms.com/Publications/2008_wenchuan_earthquake.pdf.Accessed 15Apr 2011.
State Seismological Bureau.1977.Seismic Hazard Map of China and Explanations.Beijing:Seismological Press.(in Chinese)
State Seismological Bureau.1992.Explanations of Seismic Hazard Map of China(1:4 000 000).Beijing:Seismological Press.(in Chinese)
State Seismological Bureau.1996.Introduction to Seismic Hazard Map of China(1990).Beijing:Seismological Press.(in Chinese)
Tian W,Chen Z,Xiang X,et al.2008.Analysis of and reflections on building damage caused by the 12May Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan.Sichuan Constr Sci,34(6):123-129.(in Chinese)
Wang K L,Chen Q F,Sun S H,et al.2006.Predicting the 1975 Haicheng earthquake.Bull Seismol Soc Amer,96(3):757-795.
Wang L,Tao Y.Yuan Y,et al.2005.Overview of the Earthquake-safe Rural Housing Demonstration Project of China.Northwest Seismo J,27(4):305-311.(in Chinese)
Wang W M,Zhao L F,Li J,et al.2008.Rupture process of the MS8.0 Wenchuan earthquake of Sichuan,China.Chin J Geophys,51(5):1403-1410.(in Chinese)
Xu G Y,et al.2006.Proceedings on Reservoir Triggered Earthquakes in the World.Kunming:Yunnan Science and Technology Press.(in Chinese)
Zhang H,Xiang D,Hu Y.2009.Earthquake-safe Rural Housing Project in Deyang City passed the test of the great Wenchuan earthquake.Cities and Hazard Mitigation,3:25-28.(in Chinese)
Zhang Z W,Cheng W Z,Zhang Y J,et al.2009.Research on seismicity and source parameters of small earthquake in Zipingpu Dam before Wenchuan M8.0earthquake.Earthquake Res China,25(4):367-376.(in Chinese)