PI算法用在天山地震带的回溯性研究
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摘要
以天山地震带为研究区域,以该地区1994—2014年发生的MS6.0以上强震为研究对象进行回溯性研究。以截止震级MC为MS4.0,空间网格间距0.4°×0.4°,异常学习时间窗为15年,预测时间窗为4年,系统计算天山地震带1994年以来的"地震热点"图像,分析研究时段内强震前后的PI图像演化过程,并采用ROC方法和R值评分检验,对图像信息方法在天山地区的预测效能进行评分。结果表明:(1)在回溯性研究时段内发生的强震都分布在地震热点上;(2)研究时段内发生的6次6.5级以上地震前均出现不同程度的连续热点异常演化过程;(3)ROC检验和R值评分结果显示,PI算法优于随机预测,PI算法在文章中采用的模型参数对天山地震带MS≥6.0地震具有较好的中长期预测效果。
Pattern informatics(PI)method is an earthquake prediction method based on statistical physics,which has been an active research area in recent years.This method can help to determine whether the seismicity in a grid during a time period deviates from its history and from the average state of the selected study region.In this paper,earthquakes above MS6.0during 1994—2014in the Tianshan seismic zone are retrospectively analyzed with the PI method.The results show that(1)most of the studied earthquakes occurred in the seismic regions(hotspots);(2)six earthquakes above MS6.5have obvious continuous evolution process;(3)the PI method resultsin reasonable medium and long term prediction of MS≥6.0earthquakes in the Tianshan seismic zone.
Pattern informatics(PI)method is an earthquake prediction method based on statistical physics,which has been an active research area in recent years.This method can help to determine whether the seismicity in a grid during a time period deviates from its history and from the average state of the selected study region.In this paper,earthquakes above MS6.0during 1994—2014in the Tianshan seismic zone are retrospectively analyzed with the PI method.The results show that(1)most of the studied earthquakes occurred in the seismic regions(hotspots);(2)six earthquakes above MS6.5have obvious continuous evolution process;(3)the PI method resultsin reasonable medium and long term prediction of MS≥6.0earthquakes in the Tianshan seismic zone.
引文
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[10]张小涛,张永仙,夏彩韵,等.利用图像信息方法研究芦山MS7.0地震前川滇及附近地区的图像异常[J].地震学报,2014,36(5):780-789.
[11]夏彩韵,张永仙,张小涛,等.利用两次新疆于田MS7.3地震对图像信息方法可预测性的检验[J].地震学报,2015,37(2):312-322.
[12]熊小松,高锐,李秋生,等.天山造山带的深部结构[J].地球物理学进展,2011,26(6):1906-1914.
[13]李锦轶,王克卓,李亚萍,等.天山山脉地貌特征、地壳组成与地质演化[J].地质通报,2006,5(8):895-909.
[14]高国英,王季达.天山地震带及乌恰交汇区强震活动特征[J].内陆地震,1993,7(3):271-278.
[15]邓起东,冯先岳,张培震,等.天山活动构造[M].北京:地震出版社,2000.
[16]MOLCHAN G M.Earthquake Prediction as a Decisionmaking Problem[J].Pure Appl Geophys,1997,149:233-247.
[17]SHI Y L,LIU J,ZHANG G M.The Evaluation of Chinese Annual Earthquake Prediction in the 90s[J].Graduate School Academia Sin,2000,17:63-69.
[18]马宏生,刘杰,吴昊,等.基于R值评分的年度地震预报[J].地震,2004,24(2):31-37.
[2]RUNDLE J B,TIAMPO K F,KLEIN W,et al.Self-organization in Leaky Threshold Systems:The Influence of Near-mean Field Dynamics and Its Implications for Earthquakes,Neuro-Biology,and Forecasting[J].Proc Natl Acad Sci,2002,99(Suppl 1):2514-2521.
[3]HOLLIDAY J R,NANJO K Z,TIAMPO K F,et al.Earthquake Forecasting and Its Verification[J].Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics,2005,12(6):965-977.
[4]CHEN C C,RUNDLE J B,HOLLIDAY J R,et al.The 1999Chi-Chi,Taiwan,Earthquake as a Typical Example of Seismic Activation and Quiescence[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2005,32(22):22315
[5]CHEN C C,RUNDLE J B,LI H C,et al.From Tornadoes to Earthquakes:Forecast Verification for Binary Events Applied to the 1999Chi-Chi,Taiwan,Earthquake[J].Terrestrial Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,2006,17(3):503-516.
[6]蒋长胜,吴忠良.对地震预测的一个统计物理算法在川滇地区的回溯性预测检验[J].中国科学(D辑),2008,28(8):852-861.
[7]张小涛.图像信息(PI)方法在我国大陆部分地区的应用研究[D].北京:中国地震局地震预测研究所,2009.
[8]李志海,黄瑜.兴都库什-帕米尔-新疆中南部地区PI算法的回溯性研究[J].内陆地震,2010,24(3):208-214.
[9]ZHANG Y X,ZHANG X T,WU Y J,et al.Retrospective Study on the Predictability of Pattern Informatics to the Wenchuan M8.0and Yutian M7.3Earthquakes[J].Pure and Applied Geophysics,2013,170(1-2):197-208.
[10]张小涛,张永仙,夏彩韵,等.利用图像信息方法研究芦山MS7.0地震前川滇及附近地区的图像异常[J].地震学报,2014,36(5):780-789.
[11]夏彩韵,张永仙,张小涛,等.利用两次新疆于田MS7.3地震对图像信息方法可预测性的检验[J].地震学报,2015,37(2):312-322.
[12]熊小松,高锐,李秋生,等.天山造山带的深部结构[J].地球物理学进展,2011,26(6):1906-1914.
[13]李锦轶,王克卓,李亚萍,等.天山山脉地貌特征、地壳组成与地质演化[J].地质通报,2006,5(8):895-909.
[14]高国英,王季达.天山地震带及乌恰交汇区强震活动特征[J].内陆地震,1993,7(3):271-278.
[15]邓起东,冯先岳,张培震,等.天山活动构造[M].北京:地震出版社,2000.
[16]MOLCHAN G M.Earthquake Prediction as a Decisionmaking Problem[J].Pure Appl Geophys,1997,149:233-247.
[17]SHI Y L,LIU J,ZHANG G M.The Evaluation of Chinese Annual Earthquake Prediction in the 90s[J].Graduate School Academia Sin,2000,17:63-69.
[18]马宏生,刘杰,吴昊,等.基于R值评分的年度地震预报[J].地震,2004,24(2):31-37.