我国老年人经济供养方式替代效应的城乡差异和时间性研究
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摘要
根据福利治理中的替代理论,本文旨在检验我国老年人的三种主要经济供养方式之间是否存在替代效应以及对效应强度的度量,并发现其中存在的城乡差异和时间上的变化性。为此基于我国2005、2010和2015三个年度的宏观老年人口数据,利用阈值模型等统计方法对我国2005—2015年间的老年人经济供养方式在时间和城乡空间层面的变化进行了梳理和量化分析,发现:(1)城市老年人在2005—2015年间表现出社会供养对家庭供养的线性挤出效应,且该强度弱于乡镇;而社会供养对于劳动自养的挤出效应是非线性且非完全的。(2)乡村老年人2005—2010年间出现劳动自养对于家庭供养缺失的高强度填充,2010—2015年家庭供养的回归又以接近1的强度替代了原来的劳动自养;新农保等社会供养对于劳动自养的挤出效应在宏观层面尚未显现,2010—2015年这个时期社会供养对于家庭供养的挤出是非线性的,低于阈值时还会存在挤入效应。(3)对于县镇,由于区域发展的不平衡,其替换效应兼具城市和农村的两种特点。这些结论在养老经济供养方面具有重要的政策指导意义——城市应该从福利多元主义角度改进,农村应该从家庭为主体的多元养老的途径改进。
For the economic support of the elderly in China,the main sources include family support,pensions support and self-support by labor,and the replacement among these ways is more concerned by present scholars. Naturally,to research whether the substitution effects exist,to measure the intensity of these replacements,and to find the regional difference and the change over time about these effects become the objectives of the paper. Specifically,based on the substitution theory in welfare governance as a theoretical background,through the macro old people population data of three regional levels such as city,rural and town for the three years of 2005,2010 and 2015,some statistical analysis techniques,for example statistical graphs and threshold model,are used to finish the analysis. The following results are get:(1)For the urban elderly,there is a linear crowding-out effect of pensions support on family support during 2005—2015,and the intensity was weaker than that of rural and town;while the crowding-out effect of pensions support on the labor self-support was nonlinear and partial.(2)For the elderly in rural areas,a high proportion of labor self-support was filled for the lack of family support during 2005—2010 and next in 2010—2015 the return of family support again replaced the original labor support. In addition,it has not yet proved at the macro level that the pensions support mainly with New Rural Social Pensions for rural elderly has a substitution effect on self-support by labor. Moreover,during the period of 2010—2015 the non-linear crowding-out effect of pensions support on family support in rural was confirmed,which means that there would be a crowding-in effect when pensions support ratio is below a certain threshold.(3)For the economic supply of the elderly in town,the substitution effect among these main ways has both urban and rural characteristics,which maybe due to the imbalance of regional development in China. These conclusions will be important for guiding and improving relational policies,for example,the welfare pluralism should be promoted for making urban old people better and family-oriented multiple economic sources should be developed for the elderly in rural. The macro data in the paper are first used to make such an analysis,therefore the conclusions are comprehensive and novel. Especially the properties of these substitution effects are all considered,such as the existence,the magnitude and the non-linear relation,which will deeply reveal the urban-rural differences and changes over time. These conclusions of substitution effect get in this research are only limited to the economic supply,and don't work on other aged care services such as life care or mental comfort. For such a question as why there existed a mutual replacement between family supply and labor self-supply in rural,we also should need further investigation.
For the economic support of the elderly in China,the main sources include family support,pensions support and self-support by labor,and the replacement among these ways is more concerned by present scholars. Naturally,to research whether the substitution effects exist,to measure the intensity of these replacements,and to find the regional difference and the change over time about these effects become the objectives of the paper. Specifically,based on the substitution theory in welfare governance as a theoretical background,through the macro old people population data of three regional levels such as city,rural and town for the three years of 2005,2010 and 2015,some statistical analysis techniques,for example statistical graphs and threshold model,are used to finish the analysis. The following results are get:(1)For the urban elderly,there is a linear crowding-out effect of pensions support on family support during 2005—2015,and the intensity was weaker than that of rural and town;while the crowding-out effect of pensions support on the labor self-support was nonlinear and partial.(2)For the elderly in rural areas,a high proportion of labor self-support was filled for the lack of family support during 2005—2010 and next in 2010—2015 the return of family support again replaced the original labor support. In addition,it has not yet proved at the macro level that the pensions support mainly with New Rural Social Pensions for rural elderly has a substitution effect on self-support by labor. Moreover,during the period of 2010—2015 the non-linear crowding-out effect of pensions support on family support in rural was confirmed,which means that there would be a crowding-in effect when pensions support ratio is below a certain threshold.(3)For the economic supply of the elderly in town,the substitution effect among these main ways has both urban and rural characteristics,which maybe due to the imbalance of regional development in China. These conclusions will be important for guiding and improving relational policies,for example,the welfare pluralism should be promoted for making urban old people better and family-oriented multiple economic sources should be developed for the elderly in rural. The macro data in the paper are first used to make such an analysis,therefore the conclusions are comprehensive and novel. Especially the properties of these substitution effects are all considered,such as the existence,the magnitude and the non-linear relation,which will deeply reveal the urban-rural differences and changes over time. These conclusions of substitution effect get in this research are only limited to the economic supply,and don't work on other aged care services such as life care or mental comfort. For such a question as why there existed a mutual replacement between family supply and labor self-supply in rural,we also should need further investigation.
引文
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(1)一般养老包括对老年人的经济供养、生活照料和精神慰藉。
(1)对于这些假设是否成立也是存在争议的,例如文献[18]和[19]利用美国的数据分别得到对于利他行为的驳斥和认可;文献[20]认为中国农村的家庭私人转移是交换目的的,而一些发展中国家的研究文献认为是利他行为的。
(1)来自2005年、2015年的全国人口抽查数据和2010年的全国人口普查数据。
(2)在发达国家也有类似的替换研究,但是方向和目的与发展中国家不同。例如研究父母给成年子女的经济支持对于子女外出劳动获得收入的影响[57],研究成年子女获得遗产对于他们获得劳动收入的影响等[58]。
(1)其他样本数分别为贵州19份、河南20份、新疆10份、河北4份、辽宁15份和湖南20份,共计88份。
(2)问卷中被访者的个人特征具体分为性别、年龄、教育水平、居住地区、子女数量、曾经职业、目前工作状态等。
(1)本文的核估计利用的是高斯核,带宽确定方法是改进的解方程代入法,参见文献[74]。
(1)城镇养老保险主要以城镇职工养老保险为主,该保险于1991年走上正轨,在2005-2015年已经发展较为成熟,参加保险人数年增长率基本稳定在7%,虽然2011年又实施了城镇居民养老保险,但比例相对非常少;而农村老年人主要参加新农村居民养老保险,2010年开始实施,2010-2015年正处于早期发展阶段;再有二者的保障水平也是不同的。
[2]宋吉东.老龄化背景下老年经济供养研究---基于山东省17个市的问卷调查[D].济南:山东经济学院,2011.
[3]韩央迪.从福利多元主义到福利治理:福利改革的路径演化[J].国外社会科学,2012(2):42-49.
[4]COX D,JIMENEZ E.Social Security and Private Transfers in Developing Countries:Tthe Case of Peru[J].World Bank E-conomic Review,1992,6(1):155-169.
[5]COX D,ESER Z,JIMENEZ E.Motives for Private Transfers over the Life Cycle:An Analytical Framework and Evidence for Peru[J].Journal of Development Economics,1998,55(1):57-80.
[6]JENSEN R.Do Private Transfers"Displace"the Benefits of Public Transfers?Evidence from South Africa[J].Journal of Public Economic,2003,88(1-2):89-112.
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(1)一般养老包括对老年人的经济供养、生活照料和精神慰藉。
(1)对于这些假设是否成立也是存在争议的,例如文献[18]和[19]利用美国的数据分别得到对于利他行为的驳斥和认可;文献[20]认为中国农村的家庭私人转移是交换目的的,而一些发展中国家的研究文献认为是利他行为的。
(1)来自2005年、2015年的全国人口抽查数据和2010年的全国人口普查数据。
(2)在发达国家也有类似的替换研究,但是方向和目的与发展中国家不同。例如研究父母给成年子女的经济支持对于子女外出劳动获得收入的影响[57],研究成年子女获得遗产对于他们获得劳动收入的影响等[58]。
(1)其他样本数分别为贵州19份、河南20份、新疆10份、河北4份、辽宁15份和湖南20份,共计88份。
(2)问卷中被访者的个人特征具体分为性别、年龄、教育水平、居住地区、子女数量、曾经职业、目前工作状态等。
(1)本文的核估计利用的是高斯核,带宽确定方法是改进的解方程代入法,参见文献[74]。
(1)城镇养老保险主要以城镇职工养老保险为主,该保险于1991年走上正轨,在2005-2015年已经发展较为成熟,参加保险人数年增长率基本稳定在7%,虽然2011年又实施了城镇居民养老保险,但比例相对非常少;而农村老年人主要参加新农村居民养老保险,2010年开始实施,2010-2015年正处于早期发展阶段;再有二者的保障水平也是不同的。